Prospecting for Gold:
Blue Blood

Dan Troy

There was a time, not all that long ago, when, as sure as you know now that J.D. Drew will wake up a little gimpy tomorrow morning, you knew that the National League Rookie of the Year would be a Dodger. They won the darn thing a remarkable 9 times in 17 years, capping off their dominance of the award with a run of five in a row from 1992 to 1996.

And while many of us look back at the early- to mid-'90s as a regrettable era of labor strife, government shutdowns, and the over-Vedderization of "alternative" rock radio, one surely couldn't blame a Dodger prospect watcher for gazing fondly upon the years of Newt and grunge as a time when his beloved team was assured of adding a great young player (or at least Todd Hollandsworth) to its roster. After all, things haven't been so rosy since then, as Chavez Ravinesters have been forced to endure the mercurial wandering that is Chin-Feng Chen's prospect status, while awaiting the arrival of the next Mark Grudzielanek in Joe Thurston.

Well, Dodger fans, I'm happy to say that your time in prospect oblivion may be ending. With the promotion of 18-year-old wunderkind Greg Miller to AA, I count not one, not two, but three young pitchers in Jacksonville with top-of-the-rotation potential. While the Dodger staff doesn't appear to need a lot of buffering right now, it's not unreasonable to expect that Edwin Jackson, Joel Hanrahan, and Miller may force their way into the big club's plans over the next couple of seasons.

That meteor you thought you just saw streaking across the sky may actually be Greg Miller. The Dodgers selected Miller as a supplemental first-rounder in the 2002 draft, and since then he's zoomed from high school to AA in about a year. He was considered by many to be a project when drafted, and while he had a solid debut in rookie ball last season, I doubt many imagined he'd make it so far so fast.

Miller garnered a lot of attention late in his senior year of high school when what had been a mediocre fastball began cracking 90 mph. Scouts have long praised his location and curveball, and, with a lanky 6'5" build, it was hoped his fastball would eventually have plus velocity as he grew into his frame. Well, tomorrow arrived ahead of schedule, as he's been clocked in the mid-90s this season.

His performance this year for Vero Beach in the high-A Florida State League was certainly good, striking out nearly a batter per inning, posting a fine K:BB ratio (2.66:1), and allowing only five HR in 113 innings. I think most organizations would have been pleased that an 18-year old had done so well in A-ball, and would have been content to let him finish the year at that level.

Not the Dodgers. They promoted Miller to Jacksonville early this month, and he's been lights out in his first couple of outings. Notably, in his second AA start he whiffed 14 Greenville batters against only one walk in seven innings of work. Performances like this get people talking. Not bad for a guy young enough to be worrying about getting a prom date.

While I still question the wisdom of promoting an 18-year old so quickly ? the Dodgers are in no great need of pitching and the track record for phenom pitchers is spotty at best ? I'll admit it's not easy to argue against his success so far. That said, while I love his upside, I'd caution against getting too giddy about 13 innings. Let's see how he does in extended exposure to upper-level hitters.

Hopefully, Miller's rapid rise won't overshadow teammate Edwin Jackson, whose star shines pretty brightly as well. The 2001 sixth-round right-hander had a solid 2002 season in the South Atlantic League, but is really consolidating his talent this year in AA. At the ripe old age of 19, Jackson has established himself as one of the top pitching prospects in the game while facing much older Southern League competition. No word yet on whether or not he provides shaving tips to Miller.

How good has Jackson been? His K rate is 28 percent better than the league average, and his K:BB ratio (128:44 in 127 innings) is a whopping 50 percent ahead of the average Southern League hurler. Jackson's bread and butter is a low-mid-90s sinking fastball that induces batters to swing over the ball. He complements his fastball with a nasty slider and a developing change.

Jackson gets high grades for his athleticism, and the combination of this kind of stuff and command at such a young age is uncommon. To make it in Los Angeles, he'll need to keep working on his secondary pitches, but when you consider how far he's come in such a short time ? he was not primarily a pitcher in high school ? there's good cause for optimism.

In case that weren't enough, the Jacksonville rotation also features Joel Hanrahan. By comparison to his teammates, his 21 years of life experience make him seem almost ancient, but we'll cut him some slack, as the Prospecting for Gold staff is courteous to the aged. Hanrahan emerged in 2002 with a strong season in the Florida State League, and he has managed, by and large, to bring his solid ratios with him through a AA season.

For Jacksonville, Hanrahan's averaged almost a K per inning (about 21 percent better than average), and his K:BB ratio is about 26 percent above the norm. Hanrahan has a solid slider and change, and he locates his fastball well. Compared to the Terrible Teens, Hanrahan's stuff may not seem quite so electric, but that says more about how good those two are than it does about Hanrahan's future, which should be a good one. I would, though, like to see him improve his control a bit.

Of course, betting on any one pitching prospect is a generally a very good method for going broke. Pitching is awfully tough on the arm, and the past is littered with talented young hurlers who flamed out early, suffered a career-altering injury, or who simply failed to hone their secondary pitches to big-league standards. But if there's strength in numbers, Dodger fans should be pleased to know that they have at least three quality arms in the pipeline and on track for Dodger Stadium in the not-too-distant future.

about the author

Dan Troy isn't one to complain, but he's hoping next time his local team won't seat him behind mascot Bricky The Wall. Send your stories of Billy Marlin snout stabbings to dt@strikethree.com.