Prospecting for Gold:
I've Arrived (And To Prove It I'm Here)

Dan Troy

Hello. My name is Dan Troy—though you should feel free to call me Mr. President—and this is the first edition of Prospecting for Gold, my quasi-weekly look at the future stars of our national pastime.

While my forecasts have been known to be eerily prophetic, so much so that Paul DePodesta, the Pentagon, and Nancy Reagan occasionally sift through my garbage, I'd like to assure all of you out there that my powers are used solely for socially responsible purposes. As a sign of good faith, I'll advise you right now not to use any ketchup that has been out of your personal control on October 12th of this year. Just don't, okay? Enough said about that.

If you're reading this, you're probably well aware that David Cameron expertly handled Strikethree.com's minor-league coverage over the last couple of years. David's excellent Prospect Reports were must-reads for all prospect junkies, and I learned a lot about up-and-coming young players and about prospect analysis from reading them. While I can only hope to equal the high standard that David set, I can hope to get to get a free Strikethree.com t-shirt for trying.

Before getting into my first report, I thought I'd briefly outline the approach I use in analyzing prospects. I rely primarily on performance analysis, which is to say that I'm more concerned with what a guy does on the field than with how he looks doing it. I strongly consider the prospect's age and level at which he's playing. I think most would agree that a 19-year-old posting league-average numbers in AAA is likely a better prospect than a soon to be 23-year-old hazing the kids in the Appy League (having fun, Tyler Davidson?).

For hitters, I focus a lot on control of the strike zone. I've found that this skill tends to be a good indicator of whether or not a player's numbers will translate to big-league success. I also look at power, but not just home runs. Players tend to get stronger as they mature, and a lot of doubles and triples they hit in the low minors will ultimately become home runs. For that reason, I focus on the total number of extra-base hits they get, not just their home run total or slugging percentage.

For pitchers, I like to see strong K rates and low BB and HR rates. I also look at hits allowed, but as non-home-run hits have a lot to do with defensive support and luck, I generally rely more on the outcomes over which pitchers have more direct control. For both pitchers and hitters, I consider all statistics within their league context, and also their ballpark context, especially in the case of extreme environments.

If my approach sounds stat-heavy, well, it is, but that's not to say that I ignore the impressions of scouts. In fact, I welcome their input and hope to educate myself more about their methods over time. After all, the numbers don't tell us much about a guy's defense or that a pitcher will be fine once he gains a better feel for his changeup. I'll try to provide that kind of input whenever possible. But enough about me.

This week I'd like to briefly introduce you to a pitcher that's made great strides over the last two seasons but hasn't yet received a lot of hype. He's a hard-throwing 21-year-old RHP in the Mets system named Matt Peterson. At 6-foot-5 and well over 200 lbs., he fits the physical profile of Met pitching prospects: big.

After a rather pedestrian start to his pro career in 2001, Peterson—a second-round pick in the 2000 draft out of a Louisiana high school—emerged as a notable talent with a strong, though inconsistent, 2002 showing for Capital City in the South Atlantic League. He started that season slowly, but was one of the league's most dominating performers from June to August. Sporting a plus fastball, big overhand curve, and a developing changeup, Peterson struck out more than 10 batters per 9 IP—a rate 33 percent better than the league average. He posted a K:BB ratio of 2.5:1, which is pretty good for a young pitcher.

On the downside, Peterson had a high BB rate and other signs that he needed a little maturation. He walked nearly four batters per 9 IP and surrendered more HR (13), threw more wild pitches (9), and hit more batters (8) than you'd like to see in a top prospect. Basically, he needed to become more of a pitcher and less of a thrower. Not quite Nuke LaLoosh, but you get the idea.

This season has seen Peterson take a big step forward in his command and consistency. While maintaining a K rate 18 percent better than the league average, he's lowered his walk rate down to a very respectable 2.6 per 9 IP. With a K:BB rate a little better than 3:1, he's showing solid command for a 21-year old. While the Florida State League is known as a pitcher-friendly environment, limiting opponents to only two homers in 79 innings is still an impressive feat. Matt's record currently stands at 8-2 with a tiny 1.82 ERA, and his fine performance recently earned him a promotion to AA. I think he's earned it, and Eastern League hitters will be a good test for him.

Peterson remains a work in progress, though. His changeup is still a little raw, and as most big-league starters need four pitches, he may need to consider a further expansion in his repertoire. He has the secondnd highest upside of any pitcher in the Mets system (you've heard of Scott Kazmir, right?), and if he keeps progressing and stays healthy, he could arrive in Shea Stadium sometime in 2005, and eventually become a number-two starter.

about the author

Dan Troy isn't one to complain, but he really hopes they're just joking about the Strikethree.com rookie hazing day. Assure him he'll look great in a Hooters outfit at dt@strikethree.com.

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