The Magnificent Six

Dave Paisley

Well, here I am back from a holiday break again. The major buzz around baseball recently has been the All Star Game team selections and the "This Time We Really Mean It - Honest!" or whatever slogan it is they?re using. I don?t want to belabor the whole selection process deal, because it?s been well belabored in every venue imaginable.

Except that I would like to say the fans did a very creditable job of picking decent starting lineups. The players did a decent job of picking backups. And the managers did a frickin? awful job of filling out the rosters with what few remaining picks they had. OK< by managers I really mean Dusty Baker, although Mike Scioisca has a lot to answer for with Lance Carter.

But Baker - man - Mike Williams, Armando Benitez and Rondell White??? No wonder the Cubs aren?t living up to my expectations this year with this bozo at the helm. I guess when you get to pencil in Barry Bonds and eight supporting members life is simplified enough that even a moron of a manager can win. Anything more complicated than that, like picking a better Pirate than Mike Williams, is just too much. I?m beginning to wonder if some kind of senile dementia just kicked in, given his ill advised racial remarks. We know he?s no racist of course. After all, he did manage to pick one lousy Caucasian reliever and one lousy reliever of color. Equal opportunity kudos to him for that.

But no, I wasn?t going to talk about that, so forget I even mentioned it.

What I really want to talk about (or to be technical here in the publishing world we call it writing) are some of the undersung heroes that made the All Star teams.

My first subject is Esteban Loaiza. Early this year I figured he was just the lucky guy that got off to a hot start, but who would quickly revert to career form. Didn?t happen right away. Then the Mariners went into Chicago and beat the living daylights out of him. Before that he as 5-0 with a 1.25 ERA. Five runs in 3.2 innings and he was 5-1 with a 2.27 ERA. He looked horrible - 9 hits and 3 walks in 3.2 innings. I figured the univers had balanced itself out. But no. He keeps on going, giving up 2, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 3, 3, 1, 0, 4, 3 runs in at least 6 innings except for one start (which he won anyway.) Now he?s 11-4 with a 2.28 ERA and still leading the league. But where did this come from and why? Here?s how his career lays out:

So this year he figured out how to strike more guys out and give up fewer homers. Not pitching in Texas or Toronto helps too, but not that much. Whatever it is, Loaiza is keeping tight hold of it, and is one of the main reasons the White Sox are still in with a chance in a lousy division.

Next up - Bret Boone. When the Mariners acquired the scrappy 2B as a free agent, it was hoped he?d provide a little pop from the position, but nobody had any idea he?d be the co-heart and soul of an (at times) dynamite offense. Yet here he is, with his second MVP caliber season (so far) in three years in Seattle. Looking at his career, it?s almost the inverse of what one normally expects. Here?s his career numbers year by year:

And here they are averaged over a three year period (averaged backwards from the year shown.)

At age 27, Boone had just about his worst year ever. Since then he?s been on a steady march to greatness. If he keeps this up, he?ll be the best player that ever lived by the time he?s 42. Turning himself from a sub-.700 OPS player to a .900+ player is quite a feat.

Next, my all time favorite pitcher, and well deserving first time All-Star, Jamie Moyer. Moyer?s career comes in two parts - the first where he breaks into the majors and bounces around without really figuring how to pitch well enough to stick anywhere. Then came a year in the minors wondering whether to continue at all. When he finally figured it out, he came back and eventually ended up with the Mariners where his career has been in Indian summer ever since. See if you can spot the key trick in his career numbers:

Yes, it would be that walk rate. Cut that down and all of a sudden, you?re an effective pitcher. Nothing much else changed at all. Amazing.

OK, so they?re my picks in the AL, but what of the NL?

First, let?s take a look at that pitcher Williams. No, not Mike, that would be too scary. I meant Woody, of course. Woody has always been a talented pitcher, but the results didn?t always match the expectations, and so he has bounced a round a bit. Here?s how his career lays out:

You can see the early promise with the high K rate and low HR rate, but then things go wrong. By 1996, he figured out how to not walk so many batters, but his strikeouts declined also and his homers allowed began to climb, so the ERA stayed up. The last couple of years he?s got the walks and homers under better control while maintaining a healthy strikeout rate, hence the sparkling ERA. Another elderly first time All-Star.

Next up, a guys who?s been around for a while but who still has yet to see 27 - Andruw Jones. Once dubbed the ?next Ken Griffey? Andruw has never quite made it to the upper echelons of hitting, but he sure is darned consistent. Here are his numbers averaged over three years:

Just amazing. It?s his third All-Star appearance, though, so it?s not like he?s been totally overlooked.

Finally, there?s a guy whose career trajectory looks a lot like Bret Boone?s, with a steady rise in production long after the so-called peak age of 27. Here are his numbers:

Any guesses?

It?s Jim Edmonds. He?s a year younger than Boone (which surprised me - he seems to have been around forever.) After an injured 1999, Edmonds move to the Cardinals for the 2000 season provided a boost of something that hasn?t worn off yet. He went from a solid .800-.900 OPS guy to a 1.000 OPS guy and MVP contender. Plus he got more Sportscenter highlight time in center than Ken Griffey Jr.

Well, that?s my six undersung heroes of the All-Star game. Maybe they?ll all get to play, maybe not. But remember this - "This Time We?re Going To Add Up The Score At The End To See Who Wins!"

about the author

Sure Dave Paisley picked two Mariners to talk about in his six, but just like Joe Torre picking an entire Yankee roster for the All Star game, he just doesn't care what you think. Tell him he's way out of line at drdjp@strikethree.com.