Prospect Report:
Stars and Bars

David Cameron

Thanks to the fact that the minor leagues don't play in September, we're now at the halfway point of the season. Some prospects have fallen flat on their faces (yes, Joe Borchard, I'm looking right at you), while others have had monstrous breakthrough seasons (hello Josh McKinley). In an effort to award those who have lived up to, or surpassed, expectations, I've created the Prospect Report All-Star Team.

I've chosen one starter and one reserve at each position, based on those who are having the best seasons of 2003. Minor-league veterans and other assorted non-prospects aren't included, because, well, this isn't the Minor League Veterans Report. If you're on this team, you have a future in Major League Baseball. Enough jabbering, let's get to the teams.

Catcher:

First Team: Guillermo Quiroz, Toronto, AA
Second Team: Joe Mauer, Minnesota, AA

After showing some life with the bat for the first time last year, the bonus baby has taken his offense up a step in his AA debut. Quiroz's .303/.398/.576 line has put him in the running for Eastern League MVP. Nearly half of his 50 hits have gone for extra bases and he's actually drawing walks above the ten-percent threshold. The only concern that still holds is his lack of contact, as he's struck out in one-quarter of his at bats. Considering he was signed for his abilities behind the plate, the Blue Jays shouldn't have to worry about moving this catching prospect to another position.

Speaking of bonus babies, Joe Mauer has come on like, well, someone coming on over the past few months. He struggled in April, showing absolutely no power and hitting a pedestrian .260. By raising his average to .335 as a 20-year-old in the Florida State League, he earned himself a promotion to AA. He's still got a way to go, and I wouldn't advise the Twins to have him in Minnesota before mid-2005, but it's hard to argue with what he's doing.

First Base:

First Team: Justin Morneau, Minnesota, Majors
Second Team: Adam LaRoche, Atlanta, AAA

The starter is an easy call. Morneau has simply taken his game to another level (and got a call to the big show as a reward), hitting .313/.381/.622 between AA and AAA. Before his promotion, he was the best prospect left in the minor leagues. Now, he's simply the best young first baseman in the major leagues.

Finding a backup all-star first baseman really shouldn't be this hard, however. The top prospects are either hurt or struggling, and LaRoche is pretty much the only other potential major-leaguer having anything resembling an all-star season. Last year, I compared LaRoche to Rico Brogna in the uncomplimentary fashion, but he's showing a good deal more power this season. I still don't project him as more than a placeholder at first base, but his .283/.381/.511 line in AA begs to differ. If you like Eric Karros, you may like Adam LaRoche. If not, wait for the development of James Loney.

Second Base:

First Team: Jason Bourgeois, Texas, High-A
Second Team: Josh Barfield, San Diego, High-A

Meet the tandem middle finger to walk rates as a predictor of breakout potential. Bourgeois hit an uninspiring .255 in the SAL last year, drew just 40 walks in 522 at-bats, and showed only a bit of power. As a high school draftee higher on tools than performance, he wasn't cracking many top prospect lists. So, 225 at-bats later, he's hitting .329/.433/.480, has a 35/28 BB/K, and 33 percent of his hits are going for extra bases. Congratulate the Rangers on good scouting and development. They've turned potential into performance, and have a very good player on their hands to show for it.

Barfield, like Bourgeois, wasn't winning any patience contests. He posted an awful 26/105 BB/K in low-A last year, and just 21 percent of his hits were extra-base knocks. He hit .306, but it was as hollow as it comes. Unlike Bourgeois, he's still not walking, but he is hitting to the tune of .354/.393/.544, and already posting more extra-base hits this season than he did in 550 at-bats last year. Part of that is the Cal League, but he's also gotten stronger and is driving the ball with authority. The fan club for his defense still isn't very large, and he may end up at a position other than second base. For now, he's doing quite well with his rake-and-rake philosophy.

Shortstop:

First Team: J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee, AA
Second Team: Bobby Crosby, Oakland, AAA

No one has taken as large a step forward as J.J. Hardy this year. His numbers in high-A last year appear to be all right, but a .293 average with little power in High Desert isn't anything to write home about. After being overmatched in AA to end the year and showing no strike zone judgment to speak of, some talked about Hardy being rushed and having his development stalled. You can put those fears to rest. He's drawn more walks than he did all last year and has posted a tremendous 29/20 BB/K as a 20-year-old in AA. He's matched his professional career total with 9 home runs so far this year. He's hitting .314/.410/.547, and all of his indicators point to the improvement being real. Hardy is legitimately among the best prospects in the game right now.

The A's have anointed Bobby Crosby as the heir apparent to Miguel Tejada's throne, though right now, those don't look like shoes that will be hard to fill. A first-round pick in 2001, the main aspect of his offense that needs improving at this time is his walk rate. Ironically, the A's have become the focus for the importance of on-base percentage, but continue to develop quality players who seemingly ignore the preaching of the front office. Crosby's power will make him an average offensive player, but he's looking like the new-age Alex Gonzalez (Cubs version) right now.

Third Base:

First Team: Miguel Cabrera, Florida, AA
Second Team: Andy Marte, Atlanta, High-A

Miguel Cabrera had an amazing April and has established himself as perhaps the premier prospect left in the minors, showing the big-time power that scouts had been projecting for three years. He's also shown an increased patience at the plate, drawing 31 walks to date. His .365/.430/.612 line for a 20-year-old in AA is just astounding, and the Marlins have every reason to be excited. He may struggle adapting to the major leagues, but he's clearly got star potential.

The most frequent question I got asked in April was, "what is wrong with Andy Marte?" The answer, apparently, is nothing. He worked so hard at increasing his patience and drawing walks, he'd been missing his pitches to hit, and his average suffered as a result. Once he regained his aggressiveness at the plate, while still remembering to lay off pitches out of the strike zone, things clicked. He's been a monster since, and has raised his overall numbers to .294/.371/.490. He's drawn 31 walks and has 32 extra-base hits, all while still a teenager playing in the Carolina League. Throw in the fact that Myrtle Beach is home to the best pitcher's park in minor-league baseball, and he's having a sensational season.

Left Field:

First Team: Nick Swisher, Oakland, AA
Second Team: Terrmel Sledge, Montreal, AAA

I've cheated a bit with this position, as Swisher has played center field the entire year. However, he could easily shift to LF if the A's asked him to, and I'd rather honor him than a less deserving player with worse defensive skills who has already been deemed unable to play center. Swisher doesn't need much of an introduction to Moneyball readers, and I've spent a few hundred words on him recently as well. We'll just say he's playing well and leave it at that.

Sledge, on the other hand, is a virtual unknown to most folks. The Expos acquired him from the Mariners in 2000 for the vaunted Chris Widger. Since then, Sledge has slowly moved up, level by level, and is now having his best season as a pro in AAA. At age 26, he's reaching the point where he needs to show what he can do in the big leagues, and his .336/.438/.563 line shows that AAA isn't challenging him.

Center Field:

First Team: Coco Crisp, Cleveland, Majors
Second Team: Alexis Rios, Toronto, AA

The Indians managed to get Crisp as the player-to-be-named-later from the Cardinals in the Chuck Finley deal last summer, and it has paid off well so far. Crisp profiled as a fourth outfielder coming into the season, with his best trait being the fact that he could play center field. After an impressive spring training, he went to Buffalo and lit AAA on fire. At the time of his call to the majors, he was hitting .360/.434/.511 with a 26/24 BB/K. More surprisingly, 26 of his 81 hits have gone for extra bases, and he's showing legitimate pop in his bat. Add in the speed (20 stolen bases), and the Indians look to have found a nice all-around talent. Crisp may never be a star, but he's a useful player in the mold of a Randy Winn.

New Haven adds its second player to the lineup with Rios, who has enjoyed a true breakthrough season. His numbers in the FSL were pedestrian last year, but there's nothing average about his .356/.423/.521 line in AA this year. The Jays' emphasis on selectivity has paid off with Rios, and he's finally drawing walks for the first time in his career. He still isn't showing the power that some expect with only 25 extra-base hits, but there's reason to believe that can come in time.

Right Field:

First Team: Franklin Gutierrez, Los Angeles, High-A
Second Team: Jeremy Reed, Chicago White Sox, AA

Nobody has put on quite the power display as Gutierrez this year, who has been mashing FSL pitching to the tune of a .302/.361/.568 line. A remarkable 41 of his 86 hits have gone for extra bases, putting him on a power level near that of Adam Dunn two years ago. His 15 home runs are over 33 percent of his teams total. He leads the league in homers, doubles, slugging percentage, and extra base hits, all while being seventh in batting average. The flaw in his game is plate discipline, as his 26/75 BB/K doesn't inspire much confidence. He's young, and can learn, but the strikeouts make projecting him as an all-around hitter a bit tougher.

Jeremy Reed is the anti-Gutierrez, and he's quickly establishing himself as the prospect of choice for statheads everywhere. He earned a promotion to AA by hitting .333/.431/.477 with a remarkable 41/17 BB/K. Yes, that's in the correct order. Reed is an extraordinary contact hitter, but he doesn't just slap the ball through holes, either. He's got gap power right now, and could become a 15-20 HR guy at the big league level. He also runs well, stealing 27 bases and getting caught just 6 times. Reed is 22, so the move to AA should be more of a test than was the Carolina League.

Right-Handed Pitcher:

First Team: Rich Harden, Oakland, AAA
Second Team: Zach Greinke, Kansas City, High-A

After starting the year by retiring the first thirty-nine AA batters he saw, it looked like 2003 was going to be smooth sailing for Rich Harden. AAA competition has proven to be something more of a challenge, and Harden's command hasn't been there for him in every start. His overall numbers are still solid, though, and he's posting one strikeout every inning in the PCL, which isn't easy to do. He'll likely join the A's at some point in the second half.

A year ago, the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Bryan Bullington number-one overall, and the Kansas City Royals spent the #7 pick on a high-school shortstop/pitcher named Zach Greinke. There was the usual railing about the Royals drafting of high-risk players, and talk of how quickly Bullington could reach Pittsburgh. Now, they're both taking the hill every five days in the Carolina League, and Greinke is blowing Bullington out of the water.

He's posting a league best 1.32 ERA in 12 starts as a 19-year-old kid in high-A. He's allowed just 51 hits and 12 walks in 75 innings while ringing up 69 strikeouts. High-school pitchers aren't supposed to be this polished. Greinke will almost certainly spend the second half of the year in AA before he even reaches age 20. He still has to get through the next few years with his arm in one piece, but he's looking special right now.

Left-Handed Pitcher:

First Team: Jon Connolly, Detroit, Low-A
Second Team: Sean Burnett, Pittsburgh, AA

I tried to leave Connolly off this team. His stuff is underwhelming, his strikeout rate is unimpressive, and even the Tigers don't consider him a top prospect. However, this is still an all-star team, and it's hard to leave a guy with a 0.78 ERA off an all-star team. Connolly is just 19 years of age, so he isn't dominating less experienced players. He's just throwing a ridiculous amount of strikes. In 93 innings, He's allowed 72 hits, walked 18, and struck out 44. He's 12-0 in 13 starts and has three complete games. In seven of those 13 starts, he's allowed no earned runs. Connolly may not be a great prospect, but he's having a miracle first half, and he deserves to be recognized for it.

Sean Burnett also gets high grades for command but loses points on his strikeout rate, but he's continuing to prove that he can get batters out regardless. Some figured he'd hit a wall in AA, but he's still dominating, posting a 2.04 ERA in 84 innings. He continues to just put the ball wherever he wants, and his 17/51 BB/K may not be sexy, but it is effective.

More impressively, he hasn't allowed a home run in 14 starts. His changeup is still a major-league out pitch, and his curveball has made progress. Burnett really isn't going to be challenged by minor league hitters. The Pirates might as well put him in the show and let him get his lumps in now. He's one of the few pitchers who I project to succeed at the major league level despite a low strikeout rate. His command is that good.

about the author

David Cameron has come a long way since the days he'd go to minor-league games and yell "Hey kid! You any good?" Congratulate him at dac@strikethree.com.