Lucky Dogs

Dave Paisley

In baseball reporting it's always interesting to see how the hot starts to the season get reported. "So and so pitcher is off to a tremendous start, going 6-0 to start the year!" they say and then attribute the success to finding anew pitch or learning how to concentrate, or my favorite, how to "bear down", whatever that means.

In fact, many hot starts, especially by pitchers, can be attributed to a variety of factors outside their control. If they face bad teams then they get to mow down a plethora of sub-par hitters. But that is certainly they have a direct hand in, at least. One factor they can't control is how many runs their team scores for them. This has come to light more in recent years, and some internet analysts have devised schemes for subtracting out the "luck" of being the benficiary of much better than average run support. Well, I'm not going to redo their work, but I will show you who's leading the league and who's getting ripped off the most by his stingy offense.

First, here's the top of the run support heap. RS is run support per nine innings for that pitcher.

Player, Team	W	L	ERA	RS
D. Wells, NYY	5	1	3.20	8.63
M. Hendrickson, Tor	4	4	5.40	7.92
C. Lidle, Tor	6	2	5.01	7.43
B. Radke, Min	5	3	5.60	7.41
T. Sturtze, Tor	4	4	6.02	7.38
A. Cook, Col	1	3	5.63	7.31
T. Wakefield, Bos	4	1	4.59	7.24
C. Fossum, Bos	4	1	4.70	7.04
J. Johnson, Bal	4	2	3.00	7.00
R. Franklin, Sea	3	2	3.58	6.97
W. Williams, StL	5	0	2.21	6.95
R. Ortiz, Ana	4	4	5.88	6.92
R. Helling, Bal	2	4	5.51	6.80
S. Estes, ChC	4	3	5.11	6.75
R. Halladay, Tor	4	2	4.54	6.68
G. Meche, Sea	5	2	3.06	6.66
J. Weaver, NYY	3	2	4.78	6.66
R. Clemens, NYY	5	2	2.91	6.60
K. Wood, ChC	4	1	2.44	6.41
R. Wolf, Phi	5	2	3.24	6.33
M. Prior, ChC	5	1	2.02	6.21
J. Moyer, Sea	6	2	3.67	6.17
F. Garcia, Sea	3	5	5.47	6.00

Not surprisingly, the list is headed by a Yankee. After all, they have been one of the most prolific offenses early on, and somebody had to get all those runs. With a sparkling 3.20 ERA and a hefty 8.63 runs per nine innings support it's a shock David Wells has even lost a game. However, Wells' run support has come in bunches, with 16, 15 and 12 in individual games. Just to show he can pitch without run support, he won a 2-0 game against the Twins. The lone loss was last week's 5-3 game against Anaheim.

Mark Hendrickson's runs have also come in bunches, most notably an 18-1 romp over the Royals. The losses have more to do with moest run support in those games where his 5.40 ERA has been a factor.

A lot of folks are looking at Corey Lidle's 6-2 record and thinking the A's should have kept him. Well, only if they could ahve gotten the Blue Jays offense, too. A 5.01 ERA isn't anything special, but 7.43 runs per nine innings is...

Other notables: With a great 2.21 ERA and almost 7 runs of support it's no surprise Woody Williams has yet to take a loss. Note tow more Yankee pitchers in the top 20 - Clemens and Weaver, but not, surprisingly, Mike Mussina (awith a close to average 5.40 run support).

Now here's the other end of the table...

Player, Team	W	L	ERA	RS
A. Bernero, Det	0	6	6.04	1.51
B. Myers, Phi	3	3	2.21	2.21
D. Dreifort, LA	3	3	3.51	2.45
J. Bonderman, Det	2	6	5.77	2.47
C. George, KC	4	3	4.87	2.84
M. Maroth, Det	0	9	5.73	2.87
G. Maddux, Atl	3	5	4.85	2.88
M. Kinney, Mil	2	3	3.55	2.90
R. Hernandez, KC	4	3	2.79	3.10
K. Ishii, LA	3	1	2.76	3.15
J. D'Amico, Pit	3	4	3.47	3.28
M. Clement, ChC	2	5	4.56	3.47
M. Buehrle, CWS	2	7	4.96	3.50
R. Dempster, Cin	1	3	6.85	3.52
G. Rusch, Mil	1	7	7.26	3.54
O. Perez, LA	3	2	2.93	3.58
C. Pavano, Fla	3	4	3.63	3.63
R. Rodriguez, Cle	2	4	4.31	3.64
J. Washburn, Ana	4	4	3.52	3.66
K. Lohse, Min	3	3	3.22	3.68
J. Burkett, Bos	2	2	5.43	3.79
T. Redding, Hou	3	3	3.47	3.83
J. Seo, NYM	1	2	3.69	3.88
C. Sabathia, Cle	2	2	3.00	3.90
J. Vazquez, Mon	3	2	3.42	3.90

First, let me offer my condolences to Adam Bernero. Poor kid. Starts the season losing 0-3, 0-5 and 2-4, allowing 9 runs in 19.2 IP over those games. And all he gets are two lousy runs of support. With run support only two thirds that of his nearest rival, the ineptitude of the Detroit offense boggles the mind. Maybe Adam should ask the Tigers offense to stop wearing the green Kryptonite underwear. Just a suggestion.

Our next two contenders are amazingly managing to hold their own, despite poor run support. In Dreifort's case, his low ERA and run support stem at least partially from playing in pitcher friendly parks.

Next we have another Tiger (shock!) Bonderman's hefty ERA doesn't help, but that pesky miniscule run support is a large part of his woes, too. Same for Mike Maroth. I just hope the Tigers' bullpen has the local crisis center on speed dial.

Other notables - Greg Maddux - not pitching really well, but not getting the run support. Then there's Runelvys Hernandez, who was the toast of KC early, but who seems to be running into that pesky reality problem where the Royals start playing like themselves (gifts from the dregs of the Seattle pitching staff notwithstanding.)

about the author

Who's the luckiest player today, and why? Why not suggest possibilities to Dave Paisley at drdjp@strikethree.com.