Cubs, Er, Win?

Dave Paisley

Remember last week? No?

Thinking of taking the Mike Price route - ?I was too drunk to remember??

Well, have no fear - I?ll fill you in. Last week I noted that not only can we now get team offensive OPS but we can also get OPS given up by pitching. The really good part about this (and maybe only a stat geek could love this) is that we can now evaluate pitching at the same raw level as the offense (Woohoo!). In many respects, OPS allowed is a better reflection of the raw ability of a pitching staff than ERA or other such end result measures (subject to the constraints of park effects, etc.)

I took a quick look at the American League last week, so here?s a look at the National League. Starting with the offense, here?s how the sixteen teams have performed so far.

It?s relatively easy to see that offensive OPS ranges from about .650 (Pittsburgh) up to the low .800s (St Louis, Colorado) with a commensurate increase in scoring. The correlation for runs scored per game vs. OPS is excellent.

The Cardinals offense is one of the more surprising aspects. Sure, they?re a decent hitting team, but they?re riding strong starts by Edgar Renteria, Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds to much bigger numbers than we might have expected. Given that Vina, Matheny, Martinez and Palmeiro are hardly setting the world alight, that scoring is impressive.

Another surprise in the top three is Atlanta. The braves have typically been pitching rich with modest offense, but so far this year, every cylinder is firing on offense. Sheffield, Furcal, Jones, Jones, Giles and Fick all sport OPS numbers over .850, leaving only Lopez in the seventies and Vinny Castilla languishing under .700. Even then, Braves fans were expecting to see sub-.600 from Castilla, so his .684 is looking positively robust right now.

The Pirates, on the other hand, have no regulars batting better than Javy Lopez, the 7th best hitter of the Braves everyday guys. I?m not counting Brian Giles, of course, who is still building up plate appearances. Top guy on the Pirates is Jason Kendall, at .771. They?ve also managed to get 142 AB for Aramis Ramirez at .604 and 107 AB for Pokey Reese at .533. Brian Giles? .877 positively dwarfs the lot of them.

The most notable departures from the curve are the Phillies - scoring about half a run per game more than their OPS would suggest, and the Diamondbacks, scoring half a run less than expected. One reason could be the Phillies lineup is very even - five of their regulars are hitting in the .700?s (exceptions- Thome and Lieberthal up, Bell down.) That leaves a lineup with no obvious holes that can be pitched around.

The Diamondbacks also have a bunch of guys in the middle range (.700?s) but their one batter above .800 is Luis Gonzalez (at a stellar 1.003), while their main guy below is Tony Womack at an Ordonez-esque .476. Throw in a lot more substitutes with spotty performance, and it looks like the Diamondbacks have too much of their offensive threat concentrated in one guy, and too many weak spots elsewhere.

The Cubs are looking pretty solid on offense, with all their regulars except Damian Miller above .750 OPS, many well above. With Sammy, Hee Seop Choi and Corey Patterson leading the way (and even Eric Karros contributing .980 in a supporting role), the Cubs offense looks solid across the board.

Honorable mentions: Cincinnati, Houston. (Colorado passed for playing in Coors.)

Dishonorable mentions: Mets, Milwaukee (Padres and Dodgers excused for living in pitcher?s parks.)

Turning to the pitching (remember, up and right is bad in this chart, down and left is good.)

And we see that Cincinnati is way the heck up there. So what the Cincinnati offense giveth, the pitching taketh away in spades, just like in Colorado, except that there they have the thin air to blame. Also sucking - Milwaukee. Those three make the rest of the league look like pikers in giving up runs.

Of the rest, it looks like the Padres pitching isn?t benefiting from living in a pitcher?s park much, unlike the Dodgers, who are giving up a run less per game than their nearest rivals - the Phillies. Montreal is also pretty stingy, although they appear to be doing it with smoke and mirrors, as their OPS allowed shows they should be giving up about half a run per game more.

The Cubs, on the other hand, are giving up a bit more than they should, and are the second best in the league on a pure OPS allowed basis. If we factored in park effects, I?m sure they?d show up as better than the Dodgers, even. Barring 44 mediocre innings from Shawn Estes and 16 by Juan Cruz, the Cubs pitching has been spectacular. Their W-L record is about 4 games off from what you?d normally expect, and to me it indicates that the Cubs are a powerhouse team about to bust loose. (Oh no, can you say, ?kiss of death??)

The only other anomaly is that the Pirates are giving up more than half a run per game over the odds, but unlike the Cubs, they don?t have the offense to compensate. Well, not unless they can clone Brian Giles. But even if they could only clone sheep the sheep would probably hit better than the rest of the offense.

about the author

What animal should the Pirates clone? Dave Paisley wants to know. Why not suggest possibilities at drdjp@strikethree.com.