Prospect Report:
Wha'ppen?

David Cameron

In the time-honored tradition of columnist comparisons, I'd like to offer you two batting lines and ask you to judge which player is the better hitting prospect. Player B is a year older, but he's making his AA debut, while Player A is still in high-A.

Player A: .305/.344/.408, 456 AB, 24 % XBH/H, 27/55 BB/K
Player B: .433/.519/.746, 67 AB, 38 % XBH/H, 10/9 BB/K

While the first line certainly includes a more meaningful sample size, I think everybody would agree that B's numbers are overwhelmingly better than A's, and, all things being equal, they'd rather have Player B in their system. After all, he controls the strike zone and is showing signs of power, while Player A is simply living off an empty batting average without reaching base or driving the ball with authority.

Meet Alexis Rios, 22-year-old outfielder of the Toronto Blue Jays, who is both Player A and Player B. In this case, all things were equal, because Rios is the same human being today that he was a year ago. In one short month, he's migrated from tools-laden hack to star in the making. However, there's a much deeper lesson to be learned here than the joys of what can happen when a player buys into controlling the strike zone.

Last year, I wrote a pair of columns detailing the near necessity of solid walk rates for players projected to be all-star-caliber major-leaguers. The articles focused on the fact that only a minuscule percentage of players manage to significantly improve their plate discipline after reaching the big show. The conclusion was essentially that we should be wary of projecting stardom on anyone who didn't show a propensity for the base on balls in the minor leagues.

Unfortunately, that narrow brush has been making some wide strokes in the statistically oriented community lately, and I'm now faced with the fact that most sabermetric analysts are actually overvaluing walk rates. The pendulum has swung the other way, and now the players being underrated are those with the physical tools but not the polished skills.

One of the main misconceptions that have grown in popularity is the notion that minor-league players have similar growth patterns to major-league players. It is quite rare for a major-league player to take a quantum leap forward in production and maintain it for more than one season. Occasionally, you'll see a player like Luis Gonzalez make the jump from average regular to superstar, but these situations are few and far between.

At the minor-league level, however, players develop in leaps and bounds, rather than at a steady growth rate. It often gets overlooked that the kids we are discussing are exactly that: kids. Their bodies are immature and their emotions could be described similarly. Rather than honing simple nuances of the game, these prospects have some growing up to do. People mature at different stages, but the process certainly doesn't have to be a drawn-out development.

Last year, Rocco Baldelli made one of these leaps. After hitting .249/.303/.394 in low-A Charleston, Baldelli managed to smoke three levels of pitching, including hitting .333/.382/.535 for Bakersfield. A year later, he's the American League Rookie of the Month after hitting .360 through his adjustment period in the major leagues. Considering many in the statistical community, myself included, were already declaring the former number-six pick a bust, that's an amazing turnaround.

At least, it would be amazing if it didn't happen so often. Two weeks ago, I wrote about the progression made by J.J. Hardy and Josh McKinley. Neither of them resembles the hitter they were a year ago, having remarkably improved their walk rates while lifting their offense to new levels. They are but two examples of an overlooked trend. At the minor-league level, it is not uncommon for players to simply have the light switch turn on.

Jose Lopez, now a renowned top AA shortstop prospect in the Mariners' system, hit .254/.289/.329 for the short-season Everett Aquasox in 2001. His plate discipline was poor, noted by a 13/44 BB/K. He showed little power, with only 23% of his hits going for extra bases. While he was only 17, most projected him as a defensive specialist who may slap it around enough to be a Deivi Cruz-type player. Instead, Lopez skipped low-A and hit .324 as an 18-year-old in the California League and is now hitting .320 as the youngest regular in the Texas League. He's also posted an even 8/8 BB/K so far, showing a much-improved approach at the plate.

Every year, we see players make leaps forward that no projection system would deem reasonable. Hacks develop into patient sluggers, busts turn into franchise center fielders, and defensive specialists figure out how to hit a line drive. Often there are few if any indicators that such abilities exist, but they clearly do. The talent evaluators who decided to spend millions on these teenagers see the ability, even if it doesn't translate into production for several years.

So, keep this in mind the next time someone tells you Drew Henson can't hit a baseball, that Joel Guzman's walk rate is so terrible that he can't develop into a star, or that Hector Gimenez's .676 OPS in the Carolina League proves he's a catch-and-throw guy. Those statements may all be true today, but none of them may be true tomorrow. More often than we realize, the light for a prospect turns on, and his physical tools turn into baseball skills.

Consider the cases of Alexis Rios, Guillermo Quiroz, Jose Lopez, J.J. Hardy, Josh McKinley, Rocco Baldelli, and the others who will surely follow in their footsteps. Talent is talent, regardless of whether or not you're showing up on the South Atlantic League leaderboard in on-base percentage. Let's stop writing off 20-year-olds as non-prospect hacks and start realizing there is a lot more to player development than dominating the lower minor leagues.

about the author

David Cameron prefers to write off 30-year-olds as non-prospect hacks. Sic him after Neifi Perez at dac@strikethree.com.