Prospect Report:
In Arms' Way

David Cameron

Well, the minor leagues are back...sort of. Thanks to the moodiness of mother nature, we had only a limited opening week of games. Several Midwest League teams didn't start their season until Wednesday, nearly a week after their scheduled opener. My plan for this column was to report on several interesting prospects from the Lynchburg Hillcats, but the rain here in North Carolina proceeded to wipe out my opportunity to take in a game.

Despite the weather, there was some action this week, and we keep you up to date with the return of the Prospect Ten. Throughout the year, we'll track the performances of the ten best players in the minor leagues. Want to keep an eye on how the best of the best are progressing? Wondering just how far Rich Harden's stock has climbed with his ridiculous start to the year? The Prospect Ten is just the place.

There's no need to wait until the end of the year to find out how player performances have affected their prospect status. We'll update the list every week, removing players who get promoted to the majors, get injured, or simply play themselves out of contention.

Last week I recommended some talent-laden teams you should make an effort to go see. This week, I'm going to provide some tips on what to look for while you're there. I get questions pretty frequently about what I mean when I talk about different arm angles, release points, lateral movement, and other scouting-oriented things. There's a lot more to pro scouting than what I mention (or know), but there are things that we can pick up on by paying attention. While I'd like to write a more in-depth piece on this in the future, consider this a basic primer on things to look for at the park if you're interested in evaluating player's skills.

The guys you'll get the best looks at are the two starting pitchers, since six innings will normally tell you more about a pitcher than four at-bats will about a hitter. While we need to keep in mind that no pitcher can consistently bring his best game to the mound in every start, most pitchers will bring similar stuff to the mound most nights. By placing yourself in an area where you'll be able to watch not only the pitcher's arm action but the movement of the ball, you should get a pretty good idea of what he brings to the table.

Velocity

One of the easiest things to "scout" is velocity. At nearly every minor-league game, you'll find a few scouts (or at least a pitch tracker from each team) armed with radar guns and notepads. They'll sit directly behind home plate, usually 5-7 rows from the backstop. Depending on how crowded your local stadium is, it usually isn't much of a problem to situate yourself in a seat behind them. Most scouts are very friendly and won't have any problem with you taking notes of their radar readings. These aren't national secrets, and you'll be surprised at how willing some are to strike up a conversation (just make sure they're still able to do their job).

It can be quite interesting to watch a pitcher's velocity as the game progresses. While you'll often read that a pitcher "hits 95 on the gun," you may come to realize what that means is that he hit 95 once, on a pitch that wasn't near the strike zone, and instead his fastball sat at 89-92 most of the time. It is also a positive sign if a pitcher can sustain his velocity deeper into the game. Some prospects gain notice by flashing big numbers early in the game, but they're losing 5 MPH by the third or fourth inning.

Arm Slot

Another interesting point to watch is a pitcher's arm slot. Most pitchers use the standard "over-the-top" delivery, but the "three-quarters" slot is also quite popular. The easiest way for me to pick up on the arm slot is the distance between the pitching hand and the head when the ball is released. The over-the-top pitcher will release the ball from near his ear, while the three-quarters pitcher will hold the ball further away.

This is worth noting because it usually determines which kind of breaking ball a pitcher will throw. It's very hard to get a big break on a curveball from the three-quarters slot, so most pitchers from that angle will throw a slider instead. If you're not sure whether a pitcher is throwing a curve or a slider, watch his arm slot. If he's throwing from three-quarters, he's most likely throwing a slider.

Release Point

One of the other main areas of success for a pitcher is his release point, although this isn't as easy to see as his arm slot. The release point is simply where the pitcher's arm is when he lets go of the baseball. Very few pitchers are able to hit the same release point on every pitch, but the ones with great command usually come close. If a pitcher is releasing the ball late, he'll often miss low and even bounce them up to the plate, and the converse is true as well.

Most pitches up in the zone are the result of an early release. If you make a point to watch the release point, you can better judge the pitcher's command. A pitcher may not walk anyone in a particular game, but if he has an extremely inconsistent release point, it's a sign of trouble in the future.

Movement

Once you've watched the arm slot and release point, the other key is to watch pitch movement. Some pitchers have lots of velocity but no movement and never make it out of A-ball. Others have average velocity but such incredible movement that they can't throw strikes consistently. The ones who make it manage to command their movement.

This is probably the most underrated part of a pitcher's stuff, and easily more important than velocity for me. By sitting directly behind the plate, you can get a pretty good line of sight on the path the ball takes once it leaves the pitcher's hand. Fastballs are pretty easy to distinguish, and few minor leaguers are going to have a lot of movement on their heater. The curveball is misnamed, really, and has a vertical drop.

You'll read about a power curve versus a slow curve, which is really just the difference in velocity in most cases. A slider is what most people think a curve should be, moving horizontally away from whatever side the pitchers hand is. A right-handed pitcher's slider will tail away from right-handers and vice versa. Sliders are almost always thrown harder than curveballs.

You can accurately assess a pitcher's talent by breaking his skills down into these four components. If you find a pitcher with good velocity, movement, and a consistent release point, you've likely run across one of the best prospects in the game. Most pitchers in the minors still have things to work on, but by identifying whether those are reparable problems or more permanent issues can help project their career prospects. By taking note of these small things, you can find some new enjoyment in every game you attend. And you may even learn a few things to teach your kids.

about the author

David Cameron was once told he has lots of movement but no velocity. Suggest he get some dancing lessons at dac@strikethree.com.