Prospect Report:
What The Old Guys'll Do

David Cameron

This week, we wander away from the minor leagues so that I can make a fool of myself by prognosticating what may happen over the next six months. Of course, last year's wisdom included the Padres winning the NL West and the Angels finishing in last place, so your mileage with these picks may vary.

NL East: Philadelphia-Atlanta-New York-Montreal-Florida

The Phillies overspent on veteran leadership and character, but they'll reap the harvest of the Braves' offseason follies. The Mets continued to throw money at their problems and should continue to see little in the way of returns, while Montreal and Florida are still afterthoughts. I'll take the Expos over the Marlins, simply because we know that Montreal's front office actually wants to win, while the intentions of Jeffrey Loria's crew seem to be something other than winning baseball games.

NL Central: Houston-St. Louis-Cincinnati-Chicago-Pittsburgh-Milwaukee

The Astros have some serious questions on their pitching staff, but the addition of Jeff Kent should provide even more offensive firepower. The Cardinals have more talent, but it comes with serious question marks. The Reds' offense could be great, but it will need to be, because their pitching staff is going to be rough. The Cubs' march towards respectability continues with an infusion of young talent, but they simply need more talent to compete. The Pirates are going in the right direction, even if slowly. The Brewers' farm system provides some hope for the future, though the major-league team is going to be downright terrible.

NL West: San Francisco-Arizona-Los Angeles-Colorado-San Diego

Despite Jeff Kent's defection, this might be a better Giants team than the one in last year's World Series. Arizona continues to get older, but as long as they have Johnson and Schilling, they'll be fine. The Dodgers' fates rest on Kevin Brown, who could win the division if he starts 35 games. The Rockies continue to languish in the mystery of Coors Field, doomed to 80-win seasons until they find a plan they can stick to. And, well, the Padres lost their best player before the season even started, then decided to give up a real good prospect in order to fill the hole with Rondell White. Not a good start to 2003 for Kevin Towers.

AL East: New York-Boston-Toronto-Baltimore-Tampa Bay

Make it six years in a row. The Yankees' embarrassment of depth will help them overcome any weakness, while whatever new problems they encounter will simply be solved by acquiring more help at the deadline. Theo Epstein's built an offensive machine that is as fundamentally sound as my little league teams, and this will hurt them. The Blue Jays continue to be interesting, but lack enough real starting pitchers to break through. The Orioles stink, but not quite as bad as Tampa Bay, who could set all sorts of futility records this year.

AL Central: Minnesota-Chicago-Cleveland-Kansas City-Detroit

In a division of blindness, the Twins have a walking stick, which makes them the front-runners. They should pitch their way to enough wins over their hapless division mates to seal up a playoff spot. The White Sox can hit (Carlos Lee: soon-to-be-superstar) but not pitch or field, so they'll settle for second. The Indians are rewriting the book on rebuilding, but get to practice a little patience this year. The Royals are an abomination of a franchise, saved only by the fact that the Tigers couldn't win the International League this year.

AL West: Oakland-Anaheim-Texas-Seattle

Every team in this division would win the AL Central. The A's still have tremendous starting pitching, but they'll need it to make up for Chris Singleton. The Angels are the defending World Champions, but I'm still not a fan of the hack-fest offense. The Rangers' youth movement includes some tremendous talents, but inexperience will be a problem, especially in the rotation. Experience isn't a problem for Seattle, but unfortunately that's a nice way of saying this team is old. It also just isn't that good anymore.

World Series: After a two-year absence, the Yankees make it back to claim their birthright, but run into Barry Bonds' crew and find he actually has some help. The Giants take the series in six games, Brian Cashman gets fired, and Barry Bonds gives Jeff Kent the finger while wearing his championship ring.

Now for the awards:

• AL MVP: Manny Ramirez
• AL Cy Young: Pedro Martinez
• AL ROY: Hideki Matsui
• NL MVP: Lance Berkman
• NL Cy Young: Matt Morris
• NL ROY: Marlon Byrd

As always, there is a huge pool to choose from for Prospect of the Year. Last year, no one was touting Rocco Baldelli, Victor Martinez, or Jason Stokes, who claimed most of the hardware from various sources. The field is more open this year, but the front-runners in March include Adam Wainwright, Laynce Nix, Sean Burnett, Andy Sisco, and Prince Fielder. They are all quality talents, but I'm expecting a huge year from Casey Kotchman that will overshadow the rest. If he can stay healthy and spends the entire year in the minor leagues, I'll be surprised if he's not the consensus number-one prospect in the game a year from now.

about the author

David Cameron is looking on the bright side­he doesn't live in Seattle anymore. Let him know the editors still have to walk the streets with Kevlar vests at dac@strikethree.com.