What If?

Dave Paisley

With just days to opening day, it?s instructive to take a look at what spring training really means.

What spring training really means is sitting in the hot sun in Arizona or Florida, sipping a cold beer while watching a few stars and a whole bunch of no-name minor leaguers pretend to play baseball. It?s hanging around the training complex watching eager kids and psycho adult fans try to get autographs. It?s a great way to get away from it all for a week or a few days. What it doesn?t mean is anything to do with the regular season. But what if?...

Kansas City Royals fans hope it means their team finally breaks through to the big time this year, trouncing those pesky AL Central division rivals for a change. As of Monday, the Royals led all of spring training with a 16-6 record. Translated to a full season that would be 118 wins. Well, we all know that isn?t going to happen. Michael Tucker and Dee Brown aren?t going to hit 50 homers each, and Mike Sweeney isn?t going to hit 70. Well, I guess even the most die hard Royals fans know that this spring?s performance is not exactly indicative of actual team talent.

If it was for real, this season would look mighty strange. Translated to a full season, the AL Central would look like this, for instance:

Team	Wins
Royals	118
Indians	97
White Sox	93
Minnesota	93
Detroit	61

Given that the division had only one team that cracked .500 last year, this kind of performance would be a stretch. Detroit looks about right, though, sad though that is for Tigers fans. Indians with 97 wins? Ha. Looking closely at the spring pitching shows their projected top 3 starters (Sabathia, Bere, Anderson) have looked quite vulnerable. Plus, like everyone else they?ve had offense from every possible corner, and that won?t last.

As for the other divisions, here?s how the AL East teams have fared in the spring, scaled up to a full season:

Team	Wins
Toronto	94
Red Sox	84
Orioles	81
Yankees	74
Devil Rays	49

It all looks weirdly topsy-turvy until you see the Devil Rays firmly ensconced at the bottom with 49 wins. Gee, that sound slow, even for them. But really, does anyone think the Red Sox and Yankees will net the year below .500? Not at all.

If you want aberrant results, check out the AL West:

Team	Wins
Rangers	85
A?s	84
Mariners	69
Angels	52

The World Series champs with the second worst record in the league? Inconceivable! This division has been the most consistent the last three years. By that I mean that the A?s and Mariners have been consistently good, the Angels have consistently improved and the Rangers have consistently sucked.

There doesn?t seem to be any obvious reason to believe that AL spring results have any meaning, but what about the NL?

Here?s the world famous Central division:

Team	Wins
Cubs	92
Astros	92
Pirates	78
Reds	75
Cardinals	74
Brewers	54

Looks like the Cubs might actually fulfill some promise this year. Doesn?t it? Well, maybe, but mostly because the starting pitching ahs looked pretty good in spring. Again, though, who expects the Pirates to be that good (well they were for a month last year) and the Cardinals to be that bad? The Brewers, like their compatriot ?worst team in the league? Devil Rays will probably be just about that bad.

On to the NL East, where things are looking up for the beleaguered Portland Asphalts, er, I mean Washington Grays, um, no I really mean the Montreal Expos. A healthy showing this year would do wonders for Omar Minaya?s marketability, not to mention Frank Robinson?s reputation. It would still be embarrassing for those allegedly ?small market? teams that claim they can?t compete, though. Maybe the Hernandez half-brother rotation can weave some magic out of the last season in Montreal. The Braves look deceptively good, while the Phillies look deceptively bad. Ominous news for the Braves - Mike Hampton has been eminently hittable in spring. Bad news for the Phils - Padilla and Wolf have been awful, too. Good news - they shouldn?t stay that way.

Team	Wins
Expos	108
Braves	104
Mets	88
Marlins	75
Phillies	66

Finally, the NL West looks almost right, except for the Rockies contending and the Giants being a bit off, mostly due to their starting pitching being unable to keep their ERAs below 6.00.

Team	Wins
Diamondbacks	104
Rockies	97
Giants	81
Dodgers	63
Padres	49

Suffice to say that the small sample size and non-competitive nature of spring training games makes these records meaningless. Most veterans know if they?ve made the club before they get there and they only stick around for half a game anyway. There are only ever a handful of guys who are truly fighting for a spot on the roster or a starter, so apart from those few, the competitive spirit is considerably diluted. Given that many games are won and lost in the late innings when the A ball minor leaguers are playing, you can toss those results in the dumpster even more easily.

But only four days to go now, then it all counts for real.

about the author

To receive your *free* spring training cold beer, just send $100 and a 5,000 word essay on why it should be yours, to Dave Paisley at drdjp@strikethree.com. Make those clean bills, though.