Baseballhead:
East Me

Michael Cox

Here at Baseballhead we congratulate Adrien Brody for achieving the American dream—not winning a surprise Best Actor Oscar, silly, kissing Halle Berry...

It's the final Baseballhead of the offseason, and what luck—we have one more division to predict. I'd like to thank so many of you for writing in with your opinions of my picks so far, especially Peter from Bristol, who suggested that anyone not picking the Twins to win the AL had to be an escaped mental patient (I also believe he worked in the word "whippersnapper").

This week we're left with the NL East, where the Braves have traditionally been to the other guys as delicious Eggs Benedict is to all other breakfast foods. Unfortunately, as usual, last year the Braves turned into Grape Nuts in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the rest of the division, ahem, underperformed, with the Phillies doing something statheads call "regressing to the mean," while the Mets did something statheads call "sucking." It took only the addition of Bartolo Colon to catapult Les Expos into second, outdrawing their previous owner's new Marlins in the process (in actual fans, not seats bought at the last minute to spare embarrassment).

What of 2003? Is there any magic left in Atlanta's bag? Have the Phillies bulked up enough to stave off the potential Jose Mesa collapse? Will the Mets put down the pipe, so to speak? Can Les Expos find true love in San Juan? Uh...what was the name of that other team again?

You know the drill...

5. Florida Marlins.

If for no other reason than the Mets can't possibly be that bad again. The Fish have little hitting beyond the befuddling addition of Ivan "Owie-Rod" Rodriguez, and little pitching beyond the upside potential (and it's still only potential) of the top of their rotation. They ended up getting the bad end of the Charles Johnson/Mike Hampton deal, i.e., Juan Pierre, and their owner makes Marge Schott look like a biophysicist.

Frankly, Pudge is a Jorge Posada groin pull away from a trade to more competitive climes (long-term contract tossed in, natch) and don't be surprised to see either A.J. Burnett or Josh Beckett in a color other than teal by the end of the season. Jeffrey Loria will continue his path to being hated by fans in his second straight MLB city.

4. Montreal Expos.

After making a series of odd deals, the 'Spos ended up barely above .500 last year, then sent Cliff Floyd to Boston and unloaded Bartolo Colon before they'd really have to pay for him. This leaves them with the hope that Javier Vazquez can stay healthy, the hope that El Duque can be healthy, and the hope that no one offers them a package of low-A prospects for Vlad Guerrero.

To top it off, Les Expos will be playing half their season as Los Expos, and switching home venues (much less swapping between the northernmost and southernmost cities in MLB) isn't likely to help matters. Still, I for one would love to see how they're going to explain Youppi to the people of Puerto Rico.

3. New York Mets.

Since their 2000 peak, in New York the Mets have become the class clowns to the Yankees' valedictorians (if you can believe an analogy equating David Wells and Ron Coomer with valedictorians). Despite finishing dead last in their division, the men from Queens probably sold more Rupert Murdoch tabloids than the Bronxsters. Unfortunately, they won't have Bobby Valentine to kick around anymore. Even more unfortunately, they still have Steve Phillips to kick around.

In a single bound, Art Howe has leapt from managing hardworking youngsters in Oakland to skippering a ragtag hodgepodge of various veterans in New York. (At least he apparently demanded a no-Rey Ordonez clause in his contract.) If all these guys were in their prime, the Metropolitans would win the division hands down. As it stands, the best we can hope for is that Phillips doesn't sign ALF as backup catcher.

2. Atlanta Braves.

The exact moment when the Braves moved down from their first-place lock was the moment when they decided to play Bud Selig's tight-budget game, basically giving Kevin Millwood to the Phillies. Having already said goodbye to Tom Glavine, the Millwood deal was either deliberately cocky or utterly stupid. Smart money's on stupid.

In lieu of Millwood and Glavine, the Bravos are gambling that Leo Mazzone can cure Mike Hampton's Coors Field yips. Then there's the bullpen, which is a 90%-new question mark. Past the Joneses and Gary Sheffield, there's little chop left in the Atlanta tomahawks, exemplified by Vinny Castilla, whose .268 OBP should have the team trying to ditch him at a rest area in central Florida.

1. Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phils continue to be aggressive in their offseason moves, and Jim Thome more than replaces the offense lost when Scott Rolen was basically run out of town by Larry Bowa. The aforementioned Millwood trade gives them an instant number-one starter (sure beats having to consider Robert Person, doesn't it?). David Bell adds a third-base glove, as well as the plucky, spunky clubhouse heart that a team needs to get to the next level. (Hey, I almost kept a straight face while typing that.)

Winning the division is going to take two specific things: the Phillie lineup playing up to their capabilities, and the bullpen not imploding. It's that second one I worry about—would you gamble on Jose Mesa having a third consecutive big season? On the other hand, if Mike Lieberthal pastes a photo of Omar Vizquel in his catcher's mitt...

about the author

Michael Cox will be writing his tell-all book on the first five years of Strikethree.com. Suggest juicier stories than how Dave Paisley never refills the coffee pot at mc@strikethree.com.