Prospect Report:
Rebound For Glory

David Cameron

Welcome back to the Prospect Report. I've spent the past few weeks in a 15-round prize fight with life, and all I remember is that life has a nasty left hook. My apologies for the lack of a column recently, but hopefully I'll remember to pick on somebody my own size next time. One of the victims of my beating has been the third part of the strikeout rate series I was running. An acceptable conclusion requires more time than I've had, so I'm going to postpone that column until I can find the hours to do the necessary work.

With the season so close, however, I wanted to take the time to do another column on some players to watch. A lot of guys who were big names in 2001 had rough years or missed a large majority of time due to injury and have fallen beyond the radar. Similar to what John Patterson and Kurt Ainsworth were able to do last year, these are the candidates that I believe are capable of returning to previous levels of predicted success with a bounce-back season in 2003.

After ranking Brett Evert 50th in my 2002 Top 100, I commented "In a year, everyone will be on this guy." I failed to realize that "everyone" included Southern League hitters, who pasted Evert pretty good in his 15 starts for Greenville. He was demoted back to the Carolina League where he began to put things back together, but 2002 was definitely a disappointment for one of the Braves' more promising arms.

Evert's stuff is still too good to ignore, and command wasn't a problem for him, but his 4.90 ERA has scared a lot of people off. I think Evert can overcome this hurdle, and he'll be a better pitcher for it. Expect him to make big strides this year and re-emerge as a legitimate factor in Atlanta's future.

It's not much of a limb to say that Mario Ramos is going to have a better year than he did in 2002. After posting an ERA no higher than 3.14 throughout his pro career, he put up an eye-popping 7.40 ERA in 121 innings for Oklahoma City. He gave up an unreal 162 hits in 121 innings and his strikeout rate went through the floor. The entire year was an unmitigated disaster.

However, Ramos' changeup seems to have returned this spring, and now that he's not living up to the pressure of being the savior of the Rangers' pitching staff, he should find himself somewhat closer to the pitcher the A's traded than the one the Rangers received.

Do you remember when Luis Montanez was being compared to Derek Jeter after the Cubs took him number three overall in 2000 and he was named Arizona League MVP at the age of 18? Two rough years later, and he's now considered an afterthought in a crowded Chicago system. It's simply too early to give up on him, however. He spent 2002 as a 20-year-old in the high-A Florida State League, so his lack of impressive numbers can be forgiven.

There are some encouraging signs, even though nothing in his recent performance looks like the beginnings of an all-star career. The Cubs will almost certainly let him repeat at Daytona, and he should put up significantly better numbers this time around. Remember, a year ago people were writing off Rocco Baldelli after two lousy minor-league campaigns.

Not long ago, the jewel of the Pirates' system was Bobby Bradley. An inability to stay healthy has held him to just 131 innings in four major-league seasons, and he spent all of last season on the shelf. Nearly healthy again, Bradley should get as close to a full-season worth of work in as he has since being drafted. While his curveball may not have quite the same bite it did pre-surgery, there's still a lot of talent left in his right shoulder. Just 22 years old, he's got a chance to re-establish his name again simply by taking the mound every five days.

While all of the talk about filling in Seattle's pitching staff has mentioned Gil Meche and Rafael Soriano, Jeff Heaverlo has quietly shown that he's come a long way in his recovery from a torn labrum. His slider was one of the best in the organization before the injury, though he's mainly sticking to fastballs and changeups at the moment.

While a labrum is the one injury that hasn't produced a good bounce-back rate, some who have seen Jeff throw this spring can imagine him coming out of the Mariner bullpen this summer. He was extremely polished before the injury and simply needs to gain confidence in his arm strength again. Seattle won't rush him, but he's got a legitimate chance to be part of the big-league roster this year.

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that I expect Gabe Gross to have a comeback season, considering I still rank him among the top 40 prospects in the game. His 2002 began with a miserable slump compiled by hitting line drives right at fielders, which led to a lack of confidence and ruined any chance Gross had for a successful season. He spent the summer trying to pull his average back over the Mendoza line, and even an improved second half couldn't help make his numbers look good.

The .238/.333/.380 line doesn't tell the story, though, and Gross should respond with a solid 2003 campaign. His walk rate and power were still there, so he simply needs the singles to fall in again. He's too good a hitter to believe he's going to be anywhere near .238 in the future.

It is good to remember that one good or bad season does not make or break a prospect. The major leagues are filled with guys who had at least one miserable season before making it big, and its rare to see a player climb the ladder without having to overcome some adversity. The trend is to jump on the new guy putting up the flashy numbers, but it is often failure which breeds the necessary components for success.

I'll be back with my predictions for the season next week, and we'll officially wrap up the offseason. Once player assignments are official, we'll begin to preview some of the minor-league teams you'll need to make a point to go see this year. As a good starting spot, find the nearest Indians affiliate and you'll be on the right track.

about the author

David Cameron has retained Mike Tyson as an advisor on future opponents. Explain that you probably wouldn't pay $19.95 on pay-per-view to see David battle a foot-long hot dog at dac@strikethree.com.