Warm Stove:
Texas BBQ

Dave Paisley

Well, after all the fuss, the grand opening of MLB in Japan is unceremoniously tossed aside. I guess it?s better to worry about it then cancel it rather than sending any potential terrorists a telegram, ?We?ve postponed our trip to Japan by a couple of days so you can prepare better to take out two of our MLB baseball teams. Oh by the way, their flight numbers are XX123 and YY456??

I mean, who could have possibly seen this war with Iraq deal coming?

It?s interesting that the teams most affected by the cancellation of the Japan trip are heavily featured in this, the last week of Dave?s 2003 season prognostications. I?m talking about the American League West, of course. I didn?t necessarily hold it back to the end because it has my home town team in it, but more because it was, and will be again, the best division in baseball.

Last year, the A?s Angels and Mariners were all pretty good teams. The A?s got the most out of their trio of ace starters, the Angels got the best out of everybody, including the bat boy, who, I believe, also had a career year. Don?t get me wrong, the Angels were a good team, just not quite as good as they ended up. For starters, they were lucky that Aaron Sele managed to get injured for the playoffs so they didn?t feel obliged to trot him out every fourth game.

No such luck this season, though, as he?s still on the payroll and the unwritten rules say you have to play him. At least that?s what it says on my copy. Once again, it will be Washburn, Ortiz, Appier, Sele and Lackey. At least a couple of those (most likely the geezers) will not perform the ay the team would hope. Offensively, the Salmon, Anderson, Glaus and Fullmer will continue to be good, but not great. If the likes of Kennedy, Eckstein and Spiezio contribute too, then the Angels will be good again. But only good for about 93 wins.

And what of the A?s? Having disposed of Corey Lidle, their rotation stops at Hudson, Mulder and Zito. Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang and John Halama? Good luck on the back end of the rotation, guys. Offensively, they aren?t bad, but they?ll be hoping for a lot out of Erubiel Durazo, Eric Chavez and Miguel ?I?m outta here? Tejada. Hatteberg and Dye may be able to contribute, but Long, Singleton and the catcher of the week probably won?t. Overall, better pitching and a worse offense than the Angels leaves them about even, also with 93 wins.

And then what of those Mariners? Last season was obviously going to be a drop from 116 wins, but the second half collapse was fairly nasty. The pitching tanked, Ichiro disappeared, Freddy Garcia became the head case we all thought he might be, and Mike Cameron never recovered from hitting four homers in a game in early May. Add in the fact that Edgar Martinez was gone most of the year, and various bullpen injuries, it?s a wonder the team still won 93 games.

What of 2003, though? For a start, Dan Wilson?s injury puts Ben Davis in the catcher?s slot to open the season. It?s not exactly Lou Gehrig taking over for whatsisname, but it might prove equally disastrous to Wilson?s playing time this year. Hopefully. With a healthy Edgar Martinez, an average Bret Boone and John Olerud, a de-head-cased Mike Cameron and the return to form of Ichiro, this should once again be a decent offense. The top of the starting pitching looks good if not spectacular with Garcia, Moyer and Pineiro. Bottom of the rotation will be questionable, but no more than any other decent team. The bullpen, with Arthur Rhodes and a healthy Jeff Nelson and Kaz Sasaki should be very good, if a bit overpriced. Overall, a good team, not a great team, and good for about 91 wins.

Here?s the table:

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
A's	.750	3.83	789	679	93
Angels	.754	3.88	798	687	93
Mariners	.751	3.96	791	701	91
Rangers	.741	5.03	772	875	71

Which leaves only the Texas Rangers to account for. To steal from the Who, their slogan may as well be ?Meet the new pitching staff - same as the old pitching staff?. Ismael Valdes and Chan Ho Park? Didn?t we try that one before? Things could be ugly in the bullpen this year, especially with the addition of Ugueth Urbina. And as for the offense, once you get past Arod and Rafael Palmeiro, there are no sure bets. Will Hank Blalock show what he was supposed to be made of? Does Juan Gonzalez have much left? Carl Everett - same question. And will they get much out of Einar Diaz, Kevin Mench and Michael Young? Overall, an average offense and miserable pitching will be the downfall of the Rangers, but still good for a semi-respectable 71 wins.

So there?s the final division. These are mostly good teams, but the outstanding luster just isn?t there any more. The Angels and Mariners have had their magic years and the A?s are starting to show some ragged spots. And the Rangers are mostly ragged spots held together with a patch of decent cloth here and there.

about the author

Texas fans may express their displeasure by sending an irate email and $100 in small denomination bills to Dave Paisley at drdjp@strikethree.com. Make those clean bills, though.