Here Today, Gone Tejada

Jason Michael Barker

Miguel Tejada won't be in Oakland next season, and the baseball world is up in arms about it.

Well, not quite. The media -- at least, those I've read so far -- actually seem somewhat uninterested in the news. The baseball world isn't surprised either, as after all, there's no possible way a small market team like the A's can be expected to keep their stars.

Baseball fans, however, seem to be up in arms, pointing to this as yet another sign that the economic system is out of whack. I'm sure you've read on at least one message board or have hear from at least one friend that the Yankees will sign Tejada and stick him at third base. They might be half-kidding, but make no mistake; this possibility is quite bothersome to many people.

The one parallel which jumps out right away is to Jason Giambi, who left the A's for New York as a free agent following the 2001 season. You might also recall that as late as June of that year, Oakland could have signed Giambi to a quite reasonable six-year, $90M deal if only they would have agreed to include a no-trade clause in the contract. Ownership was unable to make such a promise, contract talks broke off and the rest is history: seven years, $120M to wear pinstripes.

As for Tejada, A's owner Steve Schott decided that rather than even go through the motions of negotiating a new contract, the team simply wouldn't offer him a contract at all. Never mind that Tejada has said he'd go for some sort of hometown discount in order to stay in Oakland, or that all reports are that he wants to remain with the team. Schott would rather pass entirely than make a low offer which might "insult the guy."

The owner has said all the right things when it comes to buying into the "the game's finances are all wrong!" party line. Stop me if you've heard this before. "The problem is there's absolutely no way we can sign Miguel to a long-term contract," Schott said. "The system is broken when only two or three teams can pick up a player of Miguel's caliber and sign him to an eight-to-ten-year contract and pay him the money he deserves." Then the capper: "This small market team with the system we have just can't afford him."

System is broken... check. Only two or three teams... check. We're in a small market... check.

It's clear to me that Schott simply doesn't want to sign Tejada, regardless of the cost. Sure, he'd sign him to a three-year deal for the major league minimum, but let's be reasonable here -- that's simply not going to happen. If the A's were even remotely interested in signing him, wouldn't they at least have preliminary conversations, toss out a dollar figure or two, just to see what sort of ballpark each side is in?

What's more -- and this will probably get lost entirely when Tejada signs elsewhere next year -- Schott and company might just realize that the A's don't need Tejada, either.

From all accounts, Billy Beane is a pretty smart guy. Certainly he must realize that despite winning the American League MVP award last year, Tejada simply wasn't that good. Don't get me wrong, he's a good player. Baseball Prospectus' Value Over a Replacement Player (VORP) pegs him as the second-best shortstop in the game last year, well behind Alex Rodriguez and just ahead of Nomar Garciaparra and Derek Jeter.

Yes, the counting stats were there, and those are what get the attention of the voters: 34 homers, 131 runs driven in, 108 runs scored. He even had the pretty .308 batting average, and of course he played on a team that won 103 games. Here are two more numbers for you: just 35 unintentional walks and a .354 OBP.

Miguel Tejada turns 27 in May, and he really hasn't gotten much better over the past four seasons. If you look at last year's "MVP" season (I put that in quotes because the award is a joke), it wasn't all that different from his typical year -- 200 points of isolated power (that's slugging percentage minus batting average) and not very many walks. Only 31% of his hits went for extra bases. That's just not an impressive number, even for a middle infielder.

The big difference? He hit .308, which accounts for the difference in both his OBP and SLG. Essentially, the difference between his 2001 and 2002 seasons was 39 singles. If we've learned one thing from statistical analysis recently, it's that there is a great deal of luck involved in batting averages on balls put in play from year to year. This idea has been applied primarily to pitchers so far, but the same concept is valid for looking at hitters as well.

Tejada hit a robust .313 on balls hit in play in 2002. (That's hits minus homers, divided by at-bats minus homers minus strikeouts.) His career mark entering the 2002 season? .274, nearly 40 points worse. In case you're wondering, it's not something that has improved year-to-year, either -- from 1998 to 2001, he posted marks of .276, .268, .288 and .269. I think you can spot the outlier.

Perhaps more troubling is that he still doesn't walk, despite coming up through the most walks-happy organization in baseball. Defensively, his fielding percentage and range factor peg him as an average defender the past three seasons.

There's also the matter of his age; being from the Dominican Republic, it wouldn't be a shock if he's actually two or three years older than advertised. There have certainly been rumblings to that end, at the very least. It's not a given, certainly, but any team looking to sign him should do their homework. And don't forget, even if his current age is accurate, he's still older than Alex Rodriguez.

In the short-term, the A's have Mark Ellis ready to assume shortstop duties. In the slightly longer term prospect Bobby Crosby, who split time between high-A and AA last season, should be more than ready to take over the position in 2005, with Ellis most likely moving back to second. Aside from all of this, though, is the fact that the A's are smart and resourceful enough to overcome this loss, just as they overcame the losses of Giambi, Johnny Damon and Jason Isringhausen.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker was never a boy scout, so he's anything but resourceful. Send your Swiss Amry knife, three cans of chili and a roll of duct tape to jmb@strikethree.com.

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