Warm Stove:
Path of L’East Resistance

Dave Paisley

With just two divisions to go, I’ll put you out of your misery and hop right to the National League East to complete my predictions for the senior circuit. The NL East is a curious animal - it had the best last place finisher of the three National League divisions last year, but only one standout team. They were, if you like, the least worst division.

It’s also one of the divisions with the most upheaval. Perennial powerhouse Atlanta finally broke up the pitching rotation that has served them well for about ten years, allowing Tom Glavine to leave via free agency, and giving away Kevin Millwood for a couple of packs of gum and the right not to pay him a ton of money. It was by no means certain that Greg Maddux would stay, either, but stay he did, where he is now joined by Mike Hampton, Paul Byrd and Russ Ortiz. Color me fairly unimpressed. Given that bunch, I fully expect the hitherto stellar Braves pitching to drop to middle of the road.

The Braves offense has always had holes you could drive a London bus through, and this year is no exception. Sure there’s Gary Sheffield, and Chipper and Andruw Jones, but they’re about it. Furcal, Fick, Lopez, Giles? Whatever. And they may not be happy with Vinny Castilla, but right now he’s penciled in for 3B, with no significant upgrade (well, apart from that sack of wet cement waiting in the wings) in sight.

It appears that a lot of pundits are predicting the Braves will drop from their usual 95+ wins, but not far enough to lose the division. Well, I just don’t see them being much better than a .500 team, to be honest. The sad part is we’ll probably be sorry to see them do so poorly, despite hating them for over a decade.

Here’s how I see the division shaping up:

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
Phillies	.763	4.12	836	728	92
Expos	.728	4.02	768	751	87
Mets	.720	3.98	751	705	86
Braves	.723	4.30	756	758	81
Marlins	.696	4.40	702	774	73

So just what is it with the Phillies? Well, they got Millwood, and he now heads a staff that also features Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla. With the load shared, each of those guys should be able to relax a bit. Then they got Jim Thome, who now anchors what was already becoming a pretty solid offense. Burrell, Abreu and Lieberthal should provide some nice pop around Thome. Even David Bell isn’t a bad pickup provided you don’t expect Rolen-like numbers out of him. All that could make them the top offensive team in the league. Allied to slightly above average pitching, they win the NL East. Barring a horrible start, Larry Bowa should be able to stay out of the psych ward this year.

Next up are the pesky Expos. I haven’t really factored in the effects of a bizarre schedule, so this may well be a bit optimistic, but still, they have talent. Vazquez, Hernandez, Armas Jr. and Ohka are a pretty nice little rotation if expectations are low, while Vidro and Guerrero salvage respectability for the offense. Nothing exceptional here, but neither is the rest of the division.

So, moving on to the Mets, I can see them battling it out with the Expos behind the Phillies. Glavine and Leiter are a nice one-two punch at the top of the rotation, albeit a bit long in the tooth, while Steve Trachsel and Pedro Astacio back them up. On offense, Floyd and Piazza should be OK, but Mo Vaughn and Jeromy Burnitz are once again question marks. Will Mo strain a hamstring while dreaming of a ham sandwich? Will Burnitz get over pining for the glory days in Milwaukee? And what is it with former Brewers who can’t hit any more? It’s the Mets offense that will let them down, dropping them into the pack of fringe wild card contenders.

Then there are the Marlins. When Derrek Lee, Mike Lowell and Todd Hollandsworth are your big sluggers, there’s going to be trouble offensively. Throw in Juan Pierre and Alex Gonzalez rounding out the batting order and you’ve definitely got trouble. Only wet paper bags are going to tremble at that lineup. On the pitching side, A.J. Burnett is a decent starter, but hardly the anchor of a playoff rotation. This is basically your bargain basement team, but put together a bit better than the other Florida team.

about the author

Braves fans who refuse to see the writing on the wall may make their formal complaints to Dave Paisley at drdjp@strikethree.com. Won't change the result, though.