Baseballhead:
Going Central

Michael Cox

After about a week of deep sleep induced primarily by college basketball (I don't care what anyone else thinks, those damn kids should be in class), I'm well-rested and ready to take on the NL Central, the division where winning as many games as other divisions requires 20% more teams.

Last season the Cards were star-crossed sentimental favorites after the sudden death of Darryl Kile, who was ironically the guy they probably needed to beat the Giants in the NLCS. The Astros barely cracked .500, finishing a distant second and continuing their five-year tradition of not being terribly good in even-numbered seasons. The Reds started strong and then suffered from a pitching implosion, which was immediately blamed on Ken Griffey Jr. The Pirates blew, the Cubs also blew, and the Brewers blew even more.

Will Tony La Russa be able to rally his team around a cause a little less sad, like maybe the plight of the river otter? Will Jeff Kent be forced to complain to Sports Illustrated about Jeff Bagwell's facial grooming habits? Will Dusty Baker give Rick Reilly a good crack over the head if he tries following Sammy Sosa around with a specimen cup again? Can the Pirates and Brewers get any worse?

Of course. But let's do the long version anyway...

6. Milwaukee Brewers. It's the hallmark of a truly crappy organization when they get rid of the second-best hitter on the team because his strikeouts made them look bad. That's just what the Commissioner's team did to Jose Hernandez. From there it gets naught better, with a cast of low-budget signees replacing the low-budget signees from last year.

I could pad this out, but all it would do is amuse us at the expense of the Milwaukee fans. Poor saps.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates. On the other hand, Bucs fans should take small solace in the fact that the Brewers will keep their team out of the cellar once again. There isn't much other solace to be had, however, with the Cubs unlikely to repeat their car-wreck of a 2002 season and the Pirates likely to repeat theirs. When fans cross their fingers in hopes that Matt Stairs can make a comeback (I understand he barfed up Mini-Me during the offseason), you know hope is a scanty commodity.

It could be that Jason Kendall may regain his form, or that Pokey Reese will hit the baseball more often than he complains about Ken Griffey Jr., but a wagering man might be better off taking odds on whatever the hell college basketball team Bobby Knight is beating up these days.

4. Chicago Cubs. At this point, the predictions get harder. The Cubs and Reds are in about the same situation: at best they could challenge for (but not win) the division, and at worst they could very well be, well, about where the Boo-Boo Bears ended up last year: in Hades with the Pirates and Brew Crew.

You might want to mark these down as Famous Last Words, but I don't think the Cubs can do any worse than they did last year. It doesn't hurt that they've finally found a manager in Dusty Baker whose specialty is working with the mediocre veterans the team has historically favored. The problem is that Baker may favor Dodger castoff Eric "Please Stop Booing" Karros over Hee Seop Choi, and I hope if he does, some enterprising fan steals Baker's cap.

GM Jim Hendry seems to have tried his best to shore up the infinitesimally sucky Cub bullpen while remaining within the Tribune Co.'s budget constraints, and while Kerry Wood and Mark Prior aren't Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, they aren't a hive of wasps, either.

3. Cincinnati Reds. I've noticed a pattern in the NL Central over the past couple of years: struggling team opens a new ballpark, with the promise that revenue from the big new crowds will be invested in players, bringing said team back to its early-70s/late-70s/early-80s glory days. Team opens ballpark, freezes player budget, takes new revenues and wires them directly to Swiss bank account. Team then raises ticket prices, sees crowds evaporate, continues plunge to center of Earth.

The Reds look like the latest to fall victim to this proven loser of a cycle, to the point of dumping Todd Walker to save $3 million. On the other hand, the team may make up some of Walker's hitting with rookie 3B Brandon Larson. It sure won't be made up by Walker's replacement, the repositioned Aaron Boone.

There's no reason the Reds' outfield shouldn't continue to shine, with or without Griffey, who actually historically has played better when he's mad at someone. Really, the Redlegs will rise or fall with their pitching. Give this team the Cubs' rotation and this division is a three-way dogfight. Give 'em the Brewers' and they're reserving October tee times. Give 'em what they've got and we'll just have to see. Everyone's a question mark, from underperforming youngster Ryan Dempster to refurbished reliever Danny Graves, to, well, Paul Wilson.

Enjoy it now, Cincy fans, before next season's 25% price increase.

2. Houston Astros. Okay, I'm going to digress for a minute and address the folks who write in, frothy with disdain, because I put a "2" beside a team's name instead of a "1." They often even gloat that a couple of 1-2 picks I made last year actually finished 2-1.

Tell you what: I have no problem with such criticism, even when it involves the words "fiction" and "Gammonsesque," but I'd like just once for you to include your predictions, so I may learn and grow under your kind tutelage.

And to the Angel fans—last spring none of you picked your team to win anything either, so just clam up.

That said, the Astros are one of those "2" teams who could easily become a "1." They added crazy pop just by signing Jeff Kent, and after Craig Biggio's 2002 season it's likely that moving to the outfield may actually do him good. Unfortunately, the 'Stros' offense is spotty after Kent, Bagwell and Berkman, but with a couple of big years from the supporting cast, who knows?

After Oswalt and Miller the Houston rotation is ragtag at best (it's The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald at worst), but that's what they say about the D-Back rotation every year, and look at them. Then we have manager Jimy Williams, who is to the lineup card what Christopher Lowell is to an unfurnished sitting room. It's not that players dislike Williams, it's more like they just don't understand what the hell he's doing.

I say Biggio will rebound and at the very least the Astros will be in the divisional race to the end. Notice that I'm not mentioning a possibility of a Wild Card in the Central. Notice that you're agreeing. Good, good reader.

1. St. Louis Cardinals. The class of their division in both hitting and pitching last year, the Cards proved there's nothing that can pull a team together like tragedy. As the fog clears this spring, it reveals yet another NL Central team with major pitching issues. And where the Astros have at least two rock-solid starters, the Redbirds have but one (Matt Morris). A cast of dozens is currently auditioning for rotation roles in a scene reminiscent of A Chorus Line.

But the Cards' salvation is their starting lineup, which top-to-bottom is hands down the best in the division, day in and day out, and whatever other clichés you want to throw in there. Yes, J.D. Drew will be out the first half, but he underperformed last year, so the best outlook is to be pleasantly surprised if he returns at full strength. If you think about it, the Astros had to sign Kent just to keep pace after St. Louis locked up Scott Rolen. (You only had to get an Acura after you noticed the Jetta in your neighbors' driveway. And didn't you look the fool when you found out it wasn't even theirs?)

And this just in: Rick Ankiel had good control today.

about the author

Michael Cox never has good control. Let him know that's what's so fun about him at mc@strikethree.com.