NL Rookies to Watch

Jason Michael Barker

Even more so than last week's American League list, I had a hard time coming up with this group of players -- at this juncture it just doesn't look like a good rookie class in the NL. These things change, of course, as players get promoted to the majors faster than originally thought or a guy like Adam Dunn comes up and mashes 19 homers over the final two months of the season.

Arizona: RHP John Patterson
It seems like years ago, but Patterson was once a top prospect. After missing almost the entire 2000 season after Tommy John surgery, he returned in mid-2001 and wasn't very effective at three different levels. However, it's not unusual for a pitcher to need a full season back to be fully recovered from surgery, and sure enough Patterson turned in a solid 2002 season at AAA Tucson. He was even more impressive in his September trial, posting a 31:7 K:BB ratio in 30.2 innings. Patterson is nearly a lock for the starting rotation coming out of spring training.

Atlanta: RHP Trey Hodges
The Braves seem to break in a rookie pitcher or two each season, either in the bullpen or at the back of the rotation, but at this point there isn't a clear leader for that role. Atlanta's rotation looks set with Greg Maddux, Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Paul Byrd and Jason Marquis, and the bullpen is mostly set with John Smoltz, Ray King, Mike Venafro, Darren Holmes and Roberto Hernandez. If there's room, it's likely for a swingman like Hodges, who posted a 3.19 ERA at AAA Richmond last season. His 116:56 K:BB ratio doesn't look impressive, though it's worth noting that he skipped AA last year and still pitched quite well.

Chicago: 1B Hee Seop Choi
With Fred McGriff having left via free agency, Choi appeared to have a regular job waiting for him this spring. Instead, the Cubs went out an acquired Eric Karros. Hmm. In any event, Choi looks ready for the majors at this point, having hit .287/.406/.513 at AAA Iowa last year, with 95 walks against just 478 at-bats. He also ripped up the Arizona Fall League to the tune of .345/.456/.714 just for good measure. Karros can still hit lefties fairly well, so perhaps a platoon with the left-handed Choi is in order for his rookie season.

Cincinnati: 3B Brandon Larson
The Reds have moved incumbent 3B Aaron Boone over to second to make room for Larson, who mauled AAA pitching last season on his way to a .340/.393/.667 line with better than 45% of his hits going for extra bases. His strikezone judgment leaves something to be desired, as he walked 24 times against 70 strikeouts in 297 at-bats. That walk rate isn't horrible, though the strikeouts could mean he'll have trouble making contact in the majors. There's no denying his power, however.

Colorado: RHP Aaron Cook
'Twas tough to pick a rookie here, as the Rockies have things settled at the major league level for the most part. Cook, a second-round pick way back in 1997, has a good minor league track record and good stuff, though his ratios have never been all that impressive, particularly his strikeout rate. He started the year at AA Carolina, where he posted a stellar 1.42 ERA in 95 innings, though again, his 58:19 K:BB ratio was fairly marginal. Pushed to AAA, he posted a 3.78 ERA in 65.1 innings and saw his ratio drop to 32:18. Despite all this, Cook has a decent shot at the fifth starter job this spring.

Florida: RHP Justin Wayne
Another rookie looking to land the fifth starter job, Wayne was acquired from the Montreal Expos last year for Cliff Floyd. Having been drafted out of Stanford, people are quick to compare him to Mike Mussina, though that's not really fair to either pitcher. For the most part Wayne has pitched well at every level, though he struggled some after the trade last season and a promotion to AAA and then the majors. Some more time at AAA could be in order, but expect to see him in the majors this season, perhaps in April if he has a better spring than fellow fifth starter competitor Michael Tejara.

Houston: OF Jason Lane
The Astros traded Daryle Ward to the Dodgers to make room in center for Craig Biggio, but the trade should also open up more at-bats for Lane as the club's fourth outfielder and top right-handed bat off the bench. A college draftee, he has always hit well, but with the caveat that he has always been old for his leagues. Lane hit just .272 at AAA last year, but also saw better than 45% of his hits go for extra bases. Given a shot in the majors last September, he responded by hitting .290/.375/.536 in 69 at-bats and displaying a better walk rate than he had in the minors.

Los Angeles: 2B Joe Thurston
Earlier I mentioned the trade of Eric Karros to Chicago, partially blocking Hee Seop Choi's path to the majors. That same deal also saw Mark Grudzielanek go from LA to Chicago, clearing a path for Thurston to take over at second base in 2003. There's quite a bit to like about his 2002 AAA season: .334 average, 64 extra-base hits and 22 steals. The number that jumps off the page, however, is 25 -- as in the number of walks he drew against 587 at-bats. It's hard to predict success with plate discipline like that, but Thurston has solid baseball skills otherwise. It'll be up to him to learn to walk.

Milwaukee: RHP Ben Diggins
Diggins is a big guy, standing 6-7 and showing up on radar guns upwards of 95 MPH. He started the year in the Florida State League (that's high-A) in the Dodgers' system and pitched well, fanning 101 hitters in 114 and being reasonably under control. A mid-season trade to the Brewers found him in AA, where he dominated -- 1.91 ERA and 34 K's in 37.2 innings, with only slightly more walks than at high-A. Inexplicably, the Brewers rushed him to the majors after just seven AA starts, and he was, predictably, hammered (8.63 ERA) in five starts. Like Wayne, he could use more time in the minors but probably won't get it.

Montreal: RHP Zach Day
It seems like Day has been around forever, but he's just 24 years of age. Originally drafted by the Yankees, he found himself in Cleveland as part of the David Justice trade in 2000. He then moved on to Montreal in exchange for Milton Bradley a year later. And now, after 37.1 innings in the majors last season, he has a good shot at the fifth starter job with the Expos next year. Day worked at AAA Ottawa last season, posting solid, though not spectacular, numbers across the board: 7.7 hits, 6.8 K's and 3.2 walks per nine.

New York: 3B Ty Wigginton
There's serious talk that the Mets are going to give their 3B job to Wigginton, who has all of 116 at-bats at the major league level. Those 116 at-bats went pretty well, however, as he hit .302/.354/.526 spread over three stints with the big club. He doesn't walk at a great rate or hit for a ton of power, but he's a solid player who could certainly help the club in the short-to-medium term. If the alternative is trading a prospect for Shea Hillenbrand, Wigginton should be your man.

Philadelphia: CF Marlon Byrd
I've been talking up Byrd for at least a year now, so hopefully he won't fall flat on his face now that Doug Glanville is finally out of the way. Byrd can do a little bit of everything: hit for power, take a walk, steal a base and go get it center. He doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well other than steal bases -- he's 88 out of 99 over the past three years in the minors. Wow.

Pittsburgh: OF J.J. Davis
Davis, the sixth overall pick back in 1997, finally hit well enough last year that the Pirates think he has a future again. Now, he was repeating AA, but after the 2001 season he actually asked the organization if he could covert to pitching, so his .287/.351/.526 line has to be seen as a small success. Making contact could be an issue in the majors, but at the very least he has earned some time with his breakthrough 2002 season.

San Diego: RHP Brandon Villafuerte
A month ago, Villafuerte was just a random reliever coming off 32 solid innings of work. Suddenly, with the news that Trevor Hoffman would miss about four months after surgery, Villafuerte is the closer of the moment in San Diego. Splitting time between AAA and the majors last season, he posted a 2.02 ERA at Portland and an even better 1.41 mark with the Padres. He's not that good, of course, but he'll fan a batter an inning and could wind up with 15 saves before the All-Star break. You know, if you're into that sort of thing. Cough, cough.

San Francisco: RHP Kurt Ainsworth
It was hard to pick a rookie on the Giants, a veteran club who signed more veterans in the off-season. The best shot would appear to be Ainsworth and his outside chance of knocking off Ryan Jensen for the fifth spot in the rotation. It won't be long until we're talking about Jesse Foppert and Jerome Williams instead, but for the time being Ainsworth is our man. He struck out better than a batter per inning at AAA Fresno last season, allowing just seven homers in 116 innings, then posting a 2.10 ERA in the majors spread over two stints. If not in the rotation, look for him in long relief.

St. Louis: RHP Jim Journell
It was even harder to pick a rookie in St. Louis, where the depleted farm system isn't ready to help the major league club at all this season and where Tony LaRussa likes his veteran ballplayers. With a starting rotation more or less set one through four, Journell has an outside shot at winning the fifth job if the likes of Dustin Hermanson and Garrett Stephenson are either unhealthy or ineffective -- not outside the realm of possibility.

about the author

The only things Jason Michael Barker has ever mashed are Yukon Gold potatoes. Send garlic, butter, pepper and wee bit of cream to jmb@strikethree.com.

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