Warm Stove:
Central Heating

Dave Paisley

In the normal course of events, we who predict the outcome of the baseball season proceed in an orderly manner through the leagues and divisions. I may have lulled you into a sense of false security by starting out with the AL East, then the AL Central, but I?m going to throw you for a loop by heading next to the NL Central, thereby getting the really sucky divisions out of the way early.

The NL Central certainly isn?t the death valley of talent that characterizes the AL Central, but there aren?t enough good teams to go around in the NL, and the laws of chance say that the six team NL Central is going to get a decent share of clunkers. Well, hello, Pittsburgh Pirates. And Milwaukee Brewers. And while we?re at it, the Cincinnati Reds. Oh sure the Reds have a spiffy new stadium, but their path will probably parallel that of the Detroit Tigers rather than the Arizona Diamondbacks. And by that I mean that a new stadium can?t disguise the fact that the team has practically no talent. But I?m getting ahead of myself.

Starting at the bottom, to get them out of the way, we have the Pirates and the Brewers. Two once proud but now pitiful franchises, new stadia have done absolutely nothing for these teams. Well, except for a bit of ridicule heaped on Bud at the All-Star game last year. I?m seeing the Brewers as dead last in the NL in both offense and pitching. Richie Sexson is likely to be the only starter on offense to hit above an .800 OPS. The pitching features Ben Sheets, but the acquisition of Todd Ritchie will probably do absolutely nothing for this moribund team. Propping up the NL, I see them winning less than 57 games.

Team	OPS	ERA	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Wins
Cardinals	.753	4.36	818	767	86
Astros	.752	4.34	816	765	86
Cubs	.733	4.21	777	744	85
Reds	.731	4.76	773	833	75
Pirates	.705	4.53	721	795	73
Brewers	.672	5.10	654	889	57

The Pirates are equally one dimensional, but at least their one dimension on offense is Brian Giles. One record to keep track of is the biggest gap in OPS between the team leader and the next guy. Giles will probably hit over 1.000 again, and it?s quite possible nobody else will hit over .800. On pitching, there?s Kip Wells, so the Pirates score again over the Brewers, leading them in the standings by 16 games. Too bad that means they?ll only win 73 games.

Moving up, we get to those Cincinnati Reds. This year we already have the ?Griffey unhappy with way team is treating him? stories, so get ready for an implosion if things start going wrong. Even if Griffey is healthy and productive, the Red offense is about average, and that?s not going to be good enough to counteract a pitching staff that?s built on quicksand. There are far too many long shot bets on the staff to think that the rotation can compete.

Will they get Ryan Dempster, or will his name be Ryan Dumpster by June? Does anyone really expect Jimmy Haynes to pitch like a #2 guy on a staff? Who really thinks they can turn journeyman reliever Danny Graves into a top of the rotation starter? Not me, that?s for sure. All that leads to maybe 75 wins, just enough to keep ahead of the Pirates. Small consolation.

Last year I predicted that the Cubs would win the division with 95 wins. Of course, that was based on the notion that Jon Lieber would be healthy and that the Cubs offense would have somebody to back up Sammy Sosa and a whole host of other things that could have gone right but didn?t. Also, they were the anti-Twins. With 706 runs scored and 759 conceded, the Cubs should have won about 75 games.

Their actual total of 67 was pitifully short of that. So let?s not start from the 67 that was, but the 75 that should have been. They weren?t awful, but they were injured. Now they have the magic pixie Dusty, too. Does this mean a division win? Of course not, but it does mean a respectable third place finish (but only just) with 85 wins.

Which leaves us to the big two - the two teams who battled it to the wire out last year after neither could make much headway early in the season. The Astros feature a pretty good offense, what with the new Killer B?s and Jeff Kent. Sure, Craig Biggio was a bit off last year, but overall I?d expect the Astros to be one of the top five offenses in the league. And yes, that?s partly fueled by the stadium. In contrast, the stadium hurts the pitching, which overall projects to be merely average, despite featuring Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller. We can expect the remainder of the rotation to be respectable, though and Billy Wagner should be able to close out the good games handily. Overall, though, I?d say the Astros are good for about 86 wins.

Finally, we have the Cardinals. Last year featured a lot of heartache and tragedy and real life intrusion, but the team managed to kick into high gear at the end and even win the playoff series nobody saw. But really, the rotation was hanging together with duct tape by the end, with an overworked Matt Morris unable to win and a once retired Andy Benes pressed into service. Morris and a hopefully healthy Woody Williams anchor the rotation and are joined by Bret ?don?t get no respect? Tomko. With Simontacchi and Stephenson likely filling out the rotation, I don?t see it striking much fear into the hearts of their rivals.

The offense is a different kettle of fish, with Edmonds, Pujols and Rolen providing a solid framework for the likes of Renteria, Marrero and Tino Martinez to build on. Martinez in particular should rebound from what was a pretty awful year for him. Not that he?ll ever be Jason Giambi, though. Overall, the Cardinals project out very similar to the Astros, with similar results - 86 wins. That makes the top three all within a game of each other, so at least the top half of the division should be entertaining.

about the author

Irate Brewers fan(s) please send your complaints to Dave Paisley along with your bratwurst condiment preference at drdjp@strikethree.com.