Prospect Reports:
K Rations

David Cameron

With the growing emphasis on statistical analysis in Major League Baseball, one of the most widely accepted theories is that the best indicator of future pitching performance is strikeout rate. Almost every statistician will agree on the importance of strikeouts, and they are an intricate part of nearly every projection system developed recently. I've written more than my fair share of words hailing the strikeout, and use strikeout ratio prominently in my analysis of pitchers.

There are plenty of studies that show the theory to be true at the major-league level. Nearly every truly great pitcher in major league history has struck out a lot of batters early in his career. It is nearly impossible to find a Hall-of-Fame starting pitcher who succeeded for a long time by putting the ball in play in the big leagues. That analysis has been widely adopted as gospel for minor-league projections as well. However, I've never seen a definitive correlation between minor-league and major-league strikeout ratios.

Unfortunately, the information needed to perform a comprehensive study on the subject is not available (unless you happen to work for Stats Inc.), so we have to make do with what we can find. In that vein, I decided to take a look at the starting pitchers that played in the 2002 All-Star Game. It isn't a definitive answer, but it's a start. Below are their career minor league totals for innings pitched, strikeouts, and strikeout-per-nine-innings ratio. What we find may just surprise you:

Player	IP	K	K/9
Mark Buehrle	217.1	159	6.58
Freddy Garcia	549.1	465	7.61
Roy Halladay	493.2	322	5.87
Derek Lowe	792.1	490	5.56
Barry Zito	170	186	9.85
Vicente Padilla	244	210	7.74
Odalis Perez	355.1	387	9.80
Curt Schilling	725	601	7.46
Randy Johnson	400.1	428	9.62
Tom Glavine	536.2	425	7.13
Pedro Martinez	514.2	489	8.55

Those eleven pitchers combined to throw just shy of 5,000 innings in their minor-league careers. The total strikeout rate for the group was a meager 7.49 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), far below the standard used by most people as an acceptable strikeout rate for a potential all-star pitcher.

It is worth noting that pitchers with more impressive minor-league performances have had greater long term-success than those with questionable track records. We also need to remember that the game was quite different in the mid-80s, when Schilling and Glavine were making their way to the big leagues. Schilling in particular has taken a drastic leap in his ability to strike out batters since reaching the major leagues.

However, it is still obvious that a sweeping write-off of young hurlers who fail to rack up high strikeout rates in the minor leagues would be in error. By using a baseline of 9 K/9 as a predictor of major-league stardom, we'd have failed to identify 73% of the starting pitchers in the 2002 All-Star Game. Every system comes with a margin of error, but 73% is out of the range of acceptability.

Despite their willingness to let the defense make outs for them, Roy Halladay and Derek Lowe were both highly regarded prospects before reaching the major leagues. Halladay in particular was exciting people with his mid-90's fastball and impressive curveball. His stuff was top-shelf, and the Blue Jays liked enough of what they saw to make him a first round pick.

When it comes to guys like Halladay and Lowe, the scouts simply saw what statistical analysis could not. There was the potential for both of these pitchers to perform better than they had. Clearly, both Halladay and Lowe have justified their accolades.

Keeping that in mind, here are a few pitchers who may be following a similar career path and shouldn't be so easily discounted.

Aaron Cook, RHP, Colorado

Cook is being penciled in as the Rockies' number-four starter this year, thanks in large part to the impressive ERA he posted in AA last year and the 95 MPH fastball he brings to the mound. I wouldn't expect him to repeat the success of teammate Jason Jennings, but Cook is certainly one who has better stuff than his strikeout rate would indicate so far. I don't consider him an elite prospect, and Coors Field likely won't help his development, but he's worth keeping an eye on.

Sean Burnett, LHP, Pittsburgh

Burnett is one of the better southpaws in the game and ranked prominently in my Top 100 list. He's had plenty of recognition thus far, including pitching in the Futures Game last summer as a 19-year-old. However, nearly every write-up on Burnett will mention his strikeout rate, which has never been much higher than league average. That ignores the fact that Burnett was cruising with ease in advanced A-ball as a teenager, and that he has two major-league pitches right now, with his curveball having the potential to make it three. His command is near perfect, and he's quite similar to Buehrle, who has had no problems adjusting to the big leagues.

Seth McClung, RHP, Tampa Bay

McClung actually posted a tremendous strikeout rate with Bakersfield at the beginning of the season, but so did every other pitcher in the California League. After a promotion to AA Orlando, McClung's numbers went through the floor. He's received attention thanks to a heavy 96-MPH fastball and a breaking curve, but he's yet to find consistent control of either pitch. He has classic closer stuff, and almost everyone agrees that he could be a dominating reliever.

Rett Johnson, RHP, Seattle

From the organization that brought you Derek Lowe and then traded him for Heathcliff Slocumb, Johnson is a very similar player to the current Red Sox all-star. He doesn't have the velocity most teams look for, but he keeps the ball down at all times and has tremendous sink to his fastball. His slider is improving and that gives him a legitimate second option, but it isn't a pure strikeout pitch.

Johnson performed well in the Arizona Fall League after a successful year in AA San Antonio and isn't that far away from the big show. When people are mentioning dark-horse candidates for the back end of the Mariners' rotation, don't forget to bring up Rett Johnson's name.

about the author

David Cameron spent considerable time and effort thinking up a way to work the words "horse" and "back end" into the same sentence. Thank him at dac@strikethree.com.