Prospect Report:
Wait 'Til Next June

David Cameron

Have you ever flipped through the various incarnations of sports television networks and been amazed at some of the things you've found on? For instance, poker is apparently a sport. They find prime-time slots for extreme sports bloopers. They even have time to show reruns from the 1978 world's strongest man competition.

Despite all this gluttony of sports programming, Major League Baseball still conducts their amateur (excuse me, first-year player) draft by conference call. Even the hockey draft, which nobody cares about, is on TV. I think I flipped past the Pro Bowling Association draft the other day. I'm not sure there is a bigger indictment on the current management of Major League Baseball than the ridiculousness of the current state of the draft.

Despite that, we still care about it. Despite their attempts to convince us to not be interested in the future of the sport, the draft has a huge following, and for some, it is the highlight of their baseball season. Most people in that category refer to themselves as "Cubs fans". If you're going to wait 'til next year, you might as well know who you may be rooting for in a few more years.

So, for those of you looking towards June for reasons other than interleague play, here is a look at ten names you should track for the next few months. These ten aren't likely to be the top ten selections, as a player's draft status fluctuates wildly based on unknown factors such as signability or injury concerns. However, these ten are nearly surefire bets as first-round picks, barring a lightning strike or some such thing.

If you haven't heard of Rickie Weeks by now, you surely will soon. The second baseman from Southern University is the best athlete in the draft and is considered by some to be one of the best athletes in any recent draft. Despite not being drafted out of high school, Weeks is the front-runner for the number-one pick at the moment. Nobody questions his ability to hit, though there has been talk that he may end up in the outfield rather than at second base.

The top college arm likely belongs to Wake Forest right-hander Kyle Sleeth. After being an 18th-round pick by the Orioles in 2000, he made the correct decision and headed to school. He's filled out his 6'5" frame and become a dominant starting pitcher. His fastball can get into the mid-90s and he's got an advanced changeup for a pitcher his age. He gets high marks on projection and work ethic, and he's had few problems with the top talent in the ACC. For a team coveting a starting pitcher, Sleeth is likely their guy.

If Sleeth isn't the best pitcher in college, then Brad Sullivan is. The right-hander from the University of Houston doesn't have the size that teams look for in an ace, but he brings everything else. His curveball is legitimate and his fastball gets into the low-90s without any problems. He misses a lot of bats right now and doesn't have that far to go before he's getting major-league hitters out. He's the polished arm of the group, and he could end up being the first guy from the draft to hit the big leagues.

Michael Aubrey may not fit the classic mold of a first baseman, but he's probably the best pure college bat in the draft. Standing only 6'0" tall, he still manages to put a charge into every swing. He was a two-way player through last season, though he's probably going to shelve the pitching and concentrate on using the bat to get himself to the majors. With more teams looking for college players early, expect Aubrey to find himself a home in the middle of the first round.

If you like pitchers who throw strikes then you'll love Georgia Tech right-hander Kyle Bakker. In 180 innings during his first two seasons, he's racked up a grand total of 33 walks. Now, picture that command in a 6'9" lefty and you'll understand why teams will be falling over themselves to draft him. He's more Jon Rauch than Randy Johnson, and he won't get his fastball into the mid-90s very often, but he's not going to get labeled a soft-tosser either. A 37th-round pick by the Phillies in 2000, Bakker will go much higher than that this summer.

Moving on to the high school ranks, we find a heralded crop of outfielders dominating the class. Heading into 2003, most people considered Lastings Milledge to be the premier talent in the draft. He's a pure centerfielder with a bat that will play quickly, but he's been downgraded somewhat by those who don't see him adding much more than he already offers. For those into premium-sized players, the 6'0" Milledge may not be your guy. If you prefer players who just help win games, than I'd suggest that the man without a first name just may be that player.

There's something to be said for having a good pedigree, and Delmon Young (younger brother of Tigers "first baseman" Dmitri) comes from a quality gene pool. At 6'3" and still with some growing to do, Young is the guy who scores high on projectability, though he's not bad at the moment either. He profiles as a right fielder, especially when he adds weight to his frame as he grows. Hopefully, he'll be able to avoid adding quite as much weight as his big brother.

While not the pure athletic specimen of the aforementioned duo, Chris Lubanski has turned himself into one heck of a player through a lot of hard work. He's the gazelle in this draft, standing 6'3" but running like the wind. His defense in center field is excellent, and most see him as a gold glove-caliber outfielder. With his size and swing, most project he'll eventually add power, though it isn't there at the moment. A bit of a risk, he's extremely similar to current Devil Rays prospect Rocco Baldelli. I wouldn't expect instant results, but whoever drafts him will be patient.

Every year, we see teams get excited about the potential return from a high-school pitcher, and every year we see numerous studies showing the poor success rate those pitchers have had after being drafted in the first round. That won't stop someone from taking a shot at Jeff Allison, however. A 6'2" right-hander, he's the classic high-school pitcher. His fastball can get to 94 and he's got the makings of a solid slider. Like all 18-year-old pitchers, however, he's got a long path ahead of him.

If you're looking for a high-school southpaw, you can focus on Andrew Miller. His fastball has mid-90s potential and his slider is a legitimate out pitch right now. At 6'5", he's got the frame that teams love, and his mechanics are pretty clean. There isn't much to not like here. Miller probably won't fall below the top half of the first round.

about the author

David Cameron spent way too much time on high-school campuses preparing for this report. Tell him major-league scouts may not respect a guy who dresses in rave wear at dac@strikethree.com.