Prospect Report:
5-Year Checkup

David Cameron

Welcome to the last column of the offseason. Pitchers and catchers for the Mariners and A's report to camp on Monday, meaning that baseball is officially back. Despite the fact that it's simply fifty guys stretching and playing catch, it still beats the Pro Bowl, which has cemented itself as the Tampa Bay Devil Rays of all-star games.

With college baseball also kicking off next week, people are starting to gear up for the draft. Next week, I'll talk about some names to keep in mind this June. This week, however, we look back five years and take a look at the class of 1998. They say you have to wait five years to evaluate a draft, but this one is pretty cut and dried. The top ten were phenomenal, and everyone after that was not pretty.

The Phillies tabbed Miami third baseman Pat "The Bat" Burrell with the first overall pick. While he didn't develop quite as quickly as everyone may have expected, he's unquestionably one of the elite young sluggers in the game today. The Phillies are so pleased with his development that they just signed him to a six-year, $50 million contract extension. Philadelphia did well with this selection.

The A's rewarded Michigan State lefty Mark Mulder with a signing bonus of $50,000 more than Burrell got for going number one, but it's definitely paid off. Mulder has become one of the best left-handers in the game and a legitimate all-star candidate. He anchors the best rotation in the American League and has a bright future, if he can overcome the nagging injuries that have attempted to slow him thus far.

The Cubs selected high-school center fielder Corey Patterson, who shot through the minors and spent his rookie season in Chicago last year at the tender age of 21. While he got off to a fantastic start, he showed his youth and failed to help the Cubs contend. A legitimate center fielder, his bat needs improvement, but Patterson still has a very high ceiling. By rushing him through the system, Chicago likely did Patterson a disservice, but he has the talent to overcome that. This is still a solid pick.

We get our first lemon of the draft at number four, where Kansas City snatched Stanford right-hander Jeff Austin. Injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued him thus far, and his career now looks like it will lead to the bullpen. This is not what the Royals had in mind when they signed him to a $2.7 million bonus. Austin is just one example of being wary of Stanford pitchers. Their college workloads are excessive and success rate unimpressive. It's a great institution, but there are legitimate concerns about the arms of pitchers in their care.

The Cardinals took J.D. Drew, gambling that they could sign him when Philadelphia could not the year before. They won that bet and ended up with the most talented player in the draft. While Drew has been hampered by injuries throughout his career, he has developed into one of the finest young hitters in the game when he's healthy. While his name has popped up in trade rumors, St. Louis would be wise to hang onto him. His offensive potential could lead to an MVP trophy or two down the road.

The Twins drafted Arizona State southpaw Ryan Mills with the sixth pick, but aren't going to get much return on that investment. He struggled in AA in 2002, going 3-11 with a 5.34 ERA and a 68/68 BB/K. They removed him from the 40-man roster, and nobody bothered to put in a waiver claim. He's still just 25, but his major-league future is in doubt.

Cincinnati, back when they were into paying their draft picks, snagged high school outfielder Austin Kearns seventh. Kearns was a smashing success as a rookie last year and should spend the majority of his career roaming right field at the new Great American Ballpark. The Reds were able to grab Adam Dunn in the second round, making this one of the more impressive draft tandems you'll ever see.

Toronto spent the eighth pick on flashy shortstop Felipe Lopez, who failed to live up to expectations and was traded to the Reds during the offseason. Lopez has shown all the abilities to be a star at different times, but has never managed to display them simultaneously. His attitude has been questioned, but Cincinnati remains convinced that Lopez has the makings of a special player.

The Padres then selected Sean Burroughs, and despite his struggles in 2002, he's still among the premier young third basemen in the game. San Diego has finally settled on him as a third baseman after thoughts of moving him to second. Burroughs is a tremendously gifted hitter who can be a very valuable player. While his power has taken longer to develop than previously hoped, there are still plenty of reasons to think Burroughs will appear in his share of All-Star Games.

For a player drafted so recently, Carlos Pena has become a journeyman pretty quickly. The Rangers used the tenth pick to select the first baseman and helped develop him into one of the premier prospects in the game. They shipped him to Oakland last year in exchange for four prospects, before Oakland sent him to Detroit in the Jeff Weaver trade at the deadline. Pena should settle in as a quality first baseman, even if nobody notices while he languishes with the Tigers.

The Expos used the number eleven pick on high school shortstop Josh McKinley, who has failed to develop as hoped. He's about as clear a bust as you'll find, though Montreal made up for it with the solid selection of Brad Wilkerson in the supplemental first round. McKinley's signing bonus was a bargain at $1.25 million, but this looks like a case of being penny-wise and pound foolish.

Boston tabbed Adam Everett from South Carolina and raved about his defensive skills at shortstop. Unfortunately, his offense never came close to his glove, and he was traded to Houston for Carl Everett. The Astros attempted to anoint him their shortstop of the future, but it appears unlikely he'll ever hit enough to be a major-league regular. Drafting for defense rarely pays off, and that trend shows here.

Milwaukee used the 13th pick on high school right-hander J.M. Gold, who has succumbed to numerous injuries and seen his development stall. Gold has been passed by numerous other pitching prospects and doesn't factor heavily into the Brewers plans. He's likely to undergo a change of organizations if he's ever going to reach the major leagues.

The aforementioned Jeff Weaver was selected by the Tigers with the 14th pick. He received the highest signing bonus of any first-rounder outside of the top ten, and made a quick impact at the major-league level. While the Tigers groomed him as an ace, they watched the rest of their organization disintegrate and shipped him off in exchange for three players who could contribute to the club's future. While Weaver may not help Detroit directly, this pick paid off for the Tigers.

The Pirates decided to take Vanderbilt lefty Clint Johnston and stick him on the mound, much like they did in 2002 with John Van Benschoten. It failed miserably, and Johnson's looking to get his career back on track as a first baseman in the Blue Jays organization. It appears unlikely that the Pirates will ever see any fruit from this pick, but they apparently still believe in the philosophy of drafting college hitters and turning them into professional pitchers.

The White Sox used the 16th pick on Baylor right-hander Kip Wells, who emerged as a prospect but was traded to Pittsburgh in the infamous Todd Ritchie deal. Wells has yet to find real success in the major leagues and most view him as an end-of-rotation starter. The White Sox essentially received nothing for their $1.5 million signing bonus.

Brad Lidge went to Houston with the 17th pick, but has battled health problems since leaving Notre Dame. The Astros have moved him to the bullpen in an attempt to keep him healthy, and his raw stuff is as impressive as anyone in this class. While they didn't have a reliever in mind when they selected him, Houston will still be pleased if he can give them 60 quality innings every year.

The Angels decided USC right-hander Seth Etherton was their guy, but he was unable to stay healthy and has since been shipped to Cincinnati. The Angels got nothing for their $1.075 million signing bonus, while the Reds just hope he doesn't run up too much of a rehab bill.

San Francisco selected high school third baseman Tony Torcato with the 19th pick. While he has a picture-perfect swing, he's yet to produce much in the way of results as a professional, and arm problems have forced a move to the outfield. He's looking at a career as a pinch-hitter extraordinaire, but for only $975,000, he's actually a decent return on the Giants' investment.

At number twenty, the Indians super-sized and went with high school southpaw C.C. Sabathia. He's the clear number-one starter in Cleveland and one of the cornerstones of Cleveland's rebuilding. While his arm has been worked pretty hard to date, he's yet to sustain any serious injuries. The Tribe have to be thrilled with the value they've gotten from this pick.

Wanna see the rest of the 1998 first-round alumni? go to Page Two.