Off-Season Capsule: NL Central

Jason Michael Barker

I say this every year, but man, the National League Central is one giant division. The work that goes into this feature feels like double what goes into the four-team AL West, but part of that is probably just struggling to understand what the Brewers are doing. I think you'll find that the more you think about it, the less their moves make sense. In any event, on to the capsule.

St. Louis Cardinals
2002 record: 97-65
Runs scored: 787 (2nd), Runs allowed: 648 (4th)

Say hello: RHP Chris Carpenter, C Joe Girardi, RHP Joey Hamilton, RHP Dustin Hermanson, RHP Al Levine, OF Alex Ochoa, OF Orlando Palmeiro, IF Eduardo Perez, RHP Brett Tomko, C Steve Torrealba
Say goodbye: RHP Andy Benes, C Mike DiFelice, LHP Chuck Finley, RHP Luther Hackman, RHP Dave Veres, RHP Rick White, RHP Jamey Wright

The scoop: The veteran-laden Cardinals breezed to the division title by a 13-game margin in 2002, only to fall short against Barry Bonds and the Giants in the first round. Despite an aging and seemingly injury-prone club, St. Louis didn't do much to get younger at key positions this winter, though they did pick up a handful of players who can, at the very least, fill holes if injuries strike again.

When healthy, the Cardinals feature four very good hitters in Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, JD Drew and Albert Pujols. Rolen is two years removed from the back trouble that caused him to miss a number of games in 1999-2000, but back injuries can come back at any time. Edmonds isn't nearly has fragile as his reputation would suggest, though he is getting up there in age and has a tendency to throw his body around the field. Drew is perpetually injured and has already undergone two surgeries this winter, the first to repair the tendon in his right knee and the second to remove a cyst from his left foot; he isn't expected to be 100% until May. Fortunately for the Cardinals, Pujols has missed just six games in his first two years in the majors.

After ace Matt Morris, St. Louis was relying on the extremely fragile Woody Williams as their #2 starter after Chuck Finley's departure (Finley is still a free agent, but cannot re-sign with the Cardinals until May 1). To eat up some innings, they brought in Brett Tomko, Dustin Hermanson, Chris Carpenter Joey Hamilton, all of whom have issues but are certainly capable of pitching effectively at any given time. Tomko will almost certainly find himself in the rotation, while Hermanson and Hamilton will compete with the likes of Garrett Stephenson and Jason Simontacci for the final two spots.

Houston Astros
2002 record: 84-78
Runs scored: 749 (5th), Runs allowed: 695 (6th)

Say hello: RHP Jared Fernandez, 2B Jeff Kent, RHP Brian Moehler
Say goodbye: LHP Pedro Borbon, RHP Doug Brocail, RHP Nelson Cruz, RHP Tom Gordon, IF Mark Loretta, RHP Dave Mlicki, OF Daryle Ward

The scoop: The Astros got off to a slow start in 2002, being as many as ten games under the .500 mark in late June. They managed to get to eleven games over in mid-September, by a 7-11 finish left them well out of contention in both the division and wild card races. Perhaps thinking their second half was more indicative of the club's talent than their first, Houston made only one major move this winter -- adding slugger Jeff Kent to the order and moving career Astro Craig Biggio to the outfield.

There's no question Kent will boost the offense, joining fellow sluggers Jeff Bagwell and Lance Berkman. Outside of these three hitters, however, the Astros need to hope for some resurgence from the likes of Richard Hidalgo and Biggio. Hidalgo has yet to live up to the promise of his stellar 200 season, when he hit .314/.391/.636, while Biggio's .734 OPS last season was his worst mark since 1991 (coincidentally, his last season as a catcher). It also remains to be seen how he'll handle the transition to centerfield, where he hasn't played since 1991 and has spent only 320 career innings.

The Astros got some bad news on the pitching side this week when young lefty starter Carlos Hernandez underwent surgery on the torn labrum in his pitching shoulder; once a near lock for the starting rotation, he'll miss the entire 2003 season. The rotation starts with Roy Oswalt, Wade Miller, Shane Reynolds and Brian "scuffy" Moehler. While Reynolds' best years are behind him and Moehler is average at best, Oswalt and Miller would be aces on many teams. The final spot will be a battle between the likes of Peter Munro, Kirk Saarloos and Tim Redding, the latter of whom have dominated the minors but have yet to see that translate to major league success.

Cincinnati Reds
2002 record: 78-84
Runs scored: 709 (9th), Runs allowed: 774 (13th)

Say hello: LHP Jimmy Anderson, RHP Pete Harnisch, LHP Felix Heredia, SS Felipe Lopez, LHP Kent Mercker, RHP Paul Wilson
Say goodbye: RHP Elmer Dessens, LHP Shawn Estes, RHP Jared Fernandez, RHP Joey Hamilton, RHP Brian Moehler, RHP Jose Silva, 2B Todd Walker

The scoop: Despite a number of injuries and a patchwork rotation, the Reds finished a respectable six games under .500 last season, their last at old Riverfront Stadium before heading into the new Great American Ballpark. They also let go a number of their myriad starters from last season, as well as picking up three new ones and moving one former reliever to the starting rotation. Most importantly, however, can Ken Griffey Jr. stay healthy?

The Reds should have plenty of offense next season, beginning with their powerful outfield of Griffey, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns. This trio could combine to hit 100 homers over a full season. The infield should be improved as well, with Aaron Boone moving from third to second and Brandon Larson taking over at the hot corner. Boone showed good pop last season with 45% of his hits going for extra bases, while Larson crushed the ball at AAA Louisville last season to the tune of .340/.393/.667 (no, that SLG isn't a typo). A healthy Sean Casey and something resembling his .840 career OPS would help too, as would playing time for Felipe Lopez as he takes over from Barry Larkin.

The two starters back from a year ago are Jimmy Haynes and Ryan Dempster, the latter of whom pitched much better after a mid-season trade from Florida. Dempster has very good stuff and is still very young; he could have a breakout season after leaving the Marlins the same way Matt Clement did last season with the Cubs. New ace Danny Graves, he of the move from the bullpen, has started just four games in his big league career, all of them coming last September. Free agent signee Paul Wilson is the fourth starter, while cast of thousands (not literally) are competing for the final spot.

Pittsburgh Pirates
2002 record: 72-89
Runs scored: 641 (15th), Runs allowed: 730 (9th)

Say hello: RHP Rolando Arrojo, RHP Jeff D'Amico, RHP Matt Herges, LHP Mike Holtz, RHP Jim Mann, LHP Dennys Reyes, 1B Randall Simon, OF Matt Stairs, RHP Jeff Suppan, RHP Julian Tavarez,
Say goodbye: LHP Jimmy Anderson, IF Mike Benjamin, OF Adrian Brown, RHP Francisco Cordova, OF Darren Lewis, C Keith Osik, OF Armando Rios, LHP Ron Villone

The scoop: On the whole, the players the Pirates acquired this winter are better than the players they let go or traded away. Still, their shiny new stadium couldn't help them win games last year and neither will the players you see listed above. Right direction? Perhaps, but when you're trying to come back from ten consecutive losing seasons there's just a long way to go.

Having scored just 690 runs last season, the Pirates needed to address their offense this winter but did very little along those lines. Randall Simon is an interesting hitter in that he seems capable of hitting .300 despite never walking (or striking out, for that matter), but he doesn't offer the power this team desperately needs. Their best hope for power in 2003 would appear to be a comeback season from 3B Aramis Ramirez, who lost more than 200 points on his OPS from 2001 to last season. Part-timers Craig Wilson and Rob Mackowiak have some power as well, but outside of the great Brian Giles, the Pirates don't have anyone who gets on base at a good clip.

Pittsburgh featured a very solid bullpen last season and two good starters in Kip Wells and Josh Fogg, both of whom were acquired from the White Sox in the Todd Ritchie swindle. All these pieces are back, though they'll be hard pressed to repeat last season's success -- the pen was primarily composed of veterans having career years, while Wells and Fogg's ratios don't indicate future stardom. The good news is that both are young enough to improve. Kris Benson, who missed the entire 2001 season with an injury, was pitching much better by the end of last season and should anchor the staff next year.

Chicago Cubs
2002 record: 67-95
Runs scored: 706 (11th), Runs allowed: 759 (11th)

Say hello: Manager Dusty Baker, C Paul Bako, LHP Shawn Estes, UT Charles Gipson, OF Tom Goodwin, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, LHP Mark Guthrie, PH Lenny Harris, 1B Eric Karros, IF Ramon Martinez, C Damian Miller, OF Troy O'Leary, LHP Mike Remlinger, LHP Mike Sirotka, RHP Dave Veres
Say goodbye: RHP Jason Bere, C Joe Girardi, OF Chad Hermansen, C Todd Hundley, RHP John Lieber, RHP Pat Mahomes, 1B Fred McGriff, IF Chris Stynes

The scoop: Picked by many to take a big step forward after winning 88 games in 2001, the Cubs instead fell flat on their collective faces, slipping 21 games in the won-loss column while going through two managers in the process. New hire Dusty Baker is expected to work the same sort of miracles he did in San Francisco, but will his veteran-favoring ways mesh with a team whose best talent is young and upcoming? Stay tuned.

Perhaps predictably, the Cubs acquired a slew of veterans for Baker this winter: Paul Bako, Tom Goodwin, Mark Grudzielanek, Lenny Harris, Eric Karros, Ramon Martinez, Damian Miller and Troy O'Learly. Baker knows Goodwin and Martinez from his days in San Francisco; even more troublesome are Grudzielanek and Karros, who block the paths of Bobby Hill and Hee Seop Choi, the two position prospects most capable of helping the Cubs immediately. Moises Alou and Cory Patterson should improve on last season's numbers, giving Chicago a formidable outfield along with that Sosa fellow.

Veteran additions abound on the pitching staff as well: Shawn Estes (another SF buddy of Baker's), Mark Guthrie, Mike Remlinger and Dave Veres. However, the best pitchers on this staff are of the young variety, most notably the rotation of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Matt Clement and Carlos Zambrano (average age: 24). Baker's handling of this group, particularly Wood, Prior and Zambrano, will be extremely important to the club's future; unfortunately, he hasn't always been the best with young hurlers. Again, stay tuned.

Milwaukee Brewers
2002 record: 56-106
Runs scored: 627 (16th), Runs allowed: 821 (15th)

Say hello: OF Brady Clark, SS Royce Clayton, RHP Matt Kinney, RHP Dave Mlicki, C Keith Osik, C Eddie Perez, RHP Todd Ritchie, RHP Chuck Smith, C Javier Valentin, OF John Vander Wal
Say goodbye: C Paul Bako, OF Ryan Christenson, C Jorge Fabregas, RHP Nelson Figueroa, RHP Chad Fox, PH Lenny Harris, SS Jose Hernandez, OF Matt Stairs

The scoop: As mentioned above, it's hard to figure out what the Brewers are doing most of the time. They did manage a few nice moves this winter, most notably a nifty trade with the Twins and a few potentially rewarding free agent gambles, and their farm system is much better than it was a few years ago. Still, for the most part this is simply a bad baseball team.

Everything you need to know about the Brewers can be summed up in a pair of moves: allowing SS Jose Hernandez to leave as a free agent and signing Royce Clayton to replace him. Hernandez was the club's second-best hitter last season and arguably their best player, considering he played shortstop and Richie Sexson (only a slightly better hitter last year) played first. Still, Hernandez "struck out too much" for the Brewers, and would have set a new major league single-season record if not for his benching in seven of the season's final ten games. Clayton, for his part, struck out just 67 times last year. He also hit a very weak .251/.295/.365 and has posted an OPS over .708 just once in his career.

The rotation is fairly young, and for the most part unproven. Default ace Ben Sheets has good stuff but has also been worked fairly hard at a young age. Glendon Rusch is a proven innings eater, but not a #2 starter on a winning ballclub. The rest of the rotation is shaky at best: Todd Ritchie hopes a return to the NL will be to his liking after a horrid year with the White Sox in 2002; young Nick Neugebauer has tremendous stuff but often doesn't know where it's going; and a host of prospects, suspects and former prospects are competing for the fifth job in the rotation.

Wrap it up
While it's clear the Cardinals and Astros are the cream of this division, I also like the Reds quite a bit if they can stay healthy. They probably don't have enough to challenge for more than third place, but they might be better than most people think. The Cubs should be better too, almost by default, while the Pirates were over their heads last season and the Brewers are still awful. In the end I'm going with the Astros, because I think they're better than they showed last year and because I think injuries will finally catch up with the Cards.

The prediction: Houston, St. Louis, Cincinnati, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker is attempting to keep from being on giant dude. Tell him that cutting back from three scoops of ice cream to two is only a diet in the eyes of David Wells when you write jmb@strikethree.com.

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