Magic 8 Ball Jeopardy

Dave Paisley

Here we are with just a couple of weeks before pitchers and catchers report - at least for the early bird Mariners, who will be off to Japan in mid-March along with the A's. And as real baseball approaches again, the list of free agents has shrunk significantly. Not that too many players are happy about it. It seems that every fringe veteran out there is signing a minor league deal with an invite to spring training rather than the healthy $2-3 million contracts that used to be the norm.

So naturally, the players union is looking into filing a collusion lawsuit. And they might even win something. They should bear in mind, though, that with the economy in the tank, everyone's looking at stagnant revenues at best, and many businesses are being ultra cautious. For baseball owners, however, being cautious simply means behaving like drunken pirates on shore leave who limit themselves to just a dozen beers instead of a couple of bottles of whisky. So it's really a shock to see such collective restraint over the availability of say, John Vander Wal.

And let's not forget that this has been an eminently forgettable free agent class. This class featured many who are getting old (Glavine, Maddux, Thome, the still unsigned Chuck Finley), or had an off year (Maddux again), limited their own options by only wanting to be in certain locations (Maddux yet again) or are a significant injury risk (Pudge). After the few marquee names, there was a ton of mediocre talent not worthy of multi-year contracts.

The final nail in the coffin of this veteran free lunch was that many clubs seem to have wised up to the fact that cheap rookies can often provide the moderate performance that one can expect from mediocre veterans.

But that's enough for now of the current state of the free agent market. It's prediction season, of course, and before we get to the real numbers, it's time to take the Magic 8 Ball - for a spin. And not just any Magic 8 Ball. This year I'm using Archie McPhee's Sarcastic 8 Ball. (http://www.mcphee.com/goodies/sarcastic.html)

This year I thought I'd do it Jeopardy style - get the answer, then figure out what the question was. So without further ado, here we go, starting with the National League East.

NL East

Montreal Expos: In your dreams.
Question: Well obviously, it's "Will the Expos draw more fans in Olympic Stadium in 59 games than they will in Puerto Rico in 22"?

Florida Marlins: Sure.
Question: Only one real option here: "Will Pudge Rodriguez be on the disabled list before he can spend any of his $10 million"?

New York Mets: Obviously.
Question: Duh! "Will the Mets suck as badly as they did last year"?

Atlanta Braves: You wish.
Question: Sadly, this is the perennial heartbreaker - "Will the Braves be beaten out for the NL East crown this year"? Sadly, the answer seems to indicate we'll all be disappointed again.

Philadelphia Phillies: Not a chance.
Question: "Will Larry Bowa start taking Prozac this season"?

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers: That's ridiculous.
Question: There's the obvious, of course - "Do people pay to get into Brewers games"?

Pittsburgh Pirates: Whatever...
Question: "Will the Bucs be as successful as their NFL namesake"?

Cincinnati Reds: Yeah, and I'm the Pope.
Question: "Will Ken Griffey Jr.'s hamstring miraculously heal so he'll hit 65 homers while leading the Reds to the NL Central title"?

Chicago Cubs: Oh, please.
Question: "Will Dusty Baker repeat as the NL manager representative in the World Series, despite having Eric Karros on the roster"?

St Louis Cardinals: Get a clue...
Question: "Will Tony LaRussa ever live up to his "'crafty' reputation"?

Houston Astros: Ask me if I care.
Question: "Will Craig Biggio make a good center fielder"?

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks: Sure.
Question: There's only one question that fits the bill here - "Will Randy Johnson win the NL Cy Young again"?

Colorado Rockies: Forget about it.
Question: Hmm, too obvious - "Will Larry Walker ever play more than 100 games in a season again"?

Los Angeles Dodgers: What do you think?
Question: "Will News Corp. lose as much money as Time Warner AOL this year"?

San Diego Padres: That's ridiculous.
Question: "Will anyone care where the Padres finish this year"?

San Francisco Giants: Not.
Question: "Will the Giants repeat as NL champs this year or not"?

So that's the NL in a nutshell. Sad to say, it looks like the Sarcastic Ball, much like fortune, favors the Braves more than anyone, and that's just sad. And not very Sarcastic, either.

about the author

Does your pet make baseball prognostications? Or maybe it's an arthritic knee. Whatever wacko method you use, why not drop Dave Paisley a line at drdjp@strikethree.com and tell him all about it, because "He's listening..."