Off-Season Capsule: AL East

Jason Michael Barker

The teams of the American League East have been in the headlines quite a bit over the past year, more than any other division in baseball save perhaps their counterparts in the National League East. The Yankees make news simply by being the Yankees, while their arch-rivals in Boston drew raised eyebrows when they hired a 29-year old general manager. The Blue Jays also brought in a new GM, fired their manager and then won in the second half under his replacement. Baltimore got off to a start better than most imagined only to suffer a horrible collapse down the stretch. Finally the Devil Rays, ever the forgotten child of the division, brought Lou Piniella home to manage.

Teams are listed in order of their 2002 finish. For the most part, prospects are not included in "Say hello" unless the figure to play an important role in 2003. Likewise, players are not included in "Say goodbye" unless they contributed in 2002 (and by "contributed" I mean "played" -- you'll notice Carlos Baerga is listed, for instance, and the only thing he contributed was outs).

New York Yankees
2002 record: 103-58
Runs scored: 897 (1st), Runs allowed: 697 (4th)

Say hello: RHP Jose Contreras, LHP Chris Hammond, OF Hideki Matsui, RHP Antonio Osuna, 3B Todd Zeile
Say goodbye: RHP Orlando Hernandez, RHP Ramiro Mendoza, OF Shane Spencer, LHP Mike Stanton, OF John Vander Wal

The scoop: Despite all their talk to the contrary, the Yankees did exactly what you expect them to do -- raise payroll and sign pretty much whomever they want. This winter that came in the form of two international stars as well as keeping pricy veterans like Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. It's worth noting that despite signing Jason Giambi a year ago, the 2002 Yankees were bounced earlier in the playoffs than they had been the year before, when they lost to the Diamondbacks in the World Series. All this spending doesn't guarantee anything; there's a reason they play the games.

For all the buzz about their numerous starting pitchers, New York's offensive prowess is often overlooked. The infield of Giambi, Alfonso Soriano, Derek Jeter, Robin Ventura and Jorge Posada is perhaps the best in all of baseball, while Nick Johnson and Todd Zeile should make a nice DH platoon. Say what you will about his declining defense, but Bernie Williams is still a very good hitter. And then there's this Hideki Matsui fellow. Nobody knows quite what to expect, other than that he probably won't flop; I'll guess a .290/.370/.500 line with 25 homers.

That is not to say the pitching staff is lacking, however. Even with the trade of Orlando Hernandez, the Yankees are left with Clemens, Pettitte, Jose Contreras, Sterling Hitchcock, Mike Mussina, Jeff Weaver and David Wells. It remains to be seen which two will be the odd men out, though Hitchcock is certainly a good first guess. The pen is a bit weaker than in years past, with Mike Stanton and Ramiro Mendoza both signing elsewhere. Antonio Osuna isn't as good, while Chris Hammond is a good bet to fall apart following his miraculous 2002 season. Meanwhile, Steve Karsay is coming off back surgery.

Boston Red Sox
2002 record: 93-69
Runs scored: 859 (2nd), Runs allowed: 665 (3rd)

Say hello: UT Cesar Crespo, RHP Chad Fox, 1B/OF Jeremy Giambi, IF Damian Jackson, RHP Ramiro Mendoza, 3B Bill Mueller, RHP Ryan Rupe, RHP Mike Timlin, 2B Todd Walker
Say goodbye: RHP Rolando Arrojo, IF Carlos Baerga, 1B Tony Clark, 1B/OF Brian Daubach, OF Cliff Floyd, LHP Chris Haney, OF Rickey Henderson, RHP Dustin Hermanson, IF Rey Sanchez, RHP Ugueth Urbina

The scoop: New GM Theo Epstein -- all 29 years of him -- is so far running the Red Sox the way you or I might run our fantasy teams. I don't know about you, but a quick look at the names listed above reveal the sort of names I'd be likely to acquire on the cheap or dump as quickly as possible. Given that Epstein worked under Billy Beane, and that Billy Beane is widely considered something of a deity among "enlightened" baseball fans, that makes quite a bit of sense.

In Jeremy Giambi, Bill Mueller and Todd Walker, the Red Sox have potentially acquired an entirely new set of infield mates for Nomar Garciaparra. There's still the issue of incumbent 3B Shea Hillenbrand, but rest assured, they'll trade him if at all possible given his lack of plate discipline. There's also talk of signing former Twins 1B David Ortiz, in which case Giambi would probably spend more time in the outfield or at DH. They may not be the Yankees, but the Red Sox are potentially an offensive juggernaut (second in the league in runs scored a year ago, and they should be improved for 2003).

Unable to sign Contreras or swing a deal for Bartolo Colon (say it with me, Red Sox fans, "Damned Yankees!"), they'll once again go with Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe at the top of the rotation. Pedro is Pedro, and while Lowe looks to fall back a bit after last year's fabulous campaign, the Ped-Lowe one-two punch isn't bad. Lefty Casey Fossum pitched quite well last year (3.46 ERA, 101 K's in 106.2 IP) as both a starter and reliever, and deserves a full-time job in the rotation for 2003. After that, their hopes rest with Frank Castillo and the ageless John Burkett. So yeah, nabbing Colon would have been nice.

Toronto Blue Jays
2002 record: 78-84
Runs scored: 813 (7th), Runs allowed: 828 (9th)

Say hello: SS Mike Bordick, OF Frank Catalanotto, LHP Doug Creek, RHP Cory Lidle, C Greg Myers, RHP Tanyon Sturtze, RHP Jeff Tam
Say goodbye: RHP Chris Carpenter, RHP Esteban Loaiza, SS Felipe Lopez, RHP Steve Parris, LHP Mike Sirotka

The scoop: The Blue Jays are in better shape than you might think from looking at the numbers above. Manager Buck Martinez was fired after a 20-33 start, and Carlos Tosca led the club to a 44-32 record after the All-Star break. They also have a number of prospects ready to help the big club -- notably Jayson Werth, Jay Arnold and John-Ford Griffin, the latter two acquired from Oakland -- as well as several promising young players already at the major league level. Going forward, their biggest problem will be competing with Boston and New York.

Being seventh in runs scored doesn't sound like much, but they were about as close to first as they were to eleventh; the AL was skewed toward teams scoring more runs, and their offensive output was still better than five runs per game. Full seasons from 1B/DH Josh Phelps and 2B Orlando Hudson should help matters, and even Rookie of the Year 3B Eric Hinske has room to improve. Ditto CF Vernon Wells, who needs only to draw a few more walks to be a complete player. On the whole this is an offensive unit on the way up, with outfielders Werth and Griffin still to come.

The pitching is a bit more problematic, though nobody will argue with the numbers ace Roy Halladay posted a year ago: 19-7 with a 2.93 ERA and just ten homers allowed in 239.1 innings. After that the rotation is a bit suspect. Cory Lidle, acquired from Oakland, will be asked to carry a bigger load than he did as the fourth starter behind the Mulder-Hudson-Zito trio. Perhaps 6-9 lefty (and former NBA player) Mark Hendrickson, who was out of baseball for several years before making a comeback, can show that the 1.04 ERA he posted in four starts late last year wasn't a fluke.

Baltimore Orioles
2002 record: 67-95
Runs scored: 667 (13th), Runs allowed: 773 (7th)

Say hello: SS Deivi Cruz, LHP Omar Daal, RHP Kerry Ligtenberg
Say goodbye: SS Mike Bordick, RHP Calvin Maduro, LHP Yorkis Perez, OF Chris Singleton

The scoop: With an 11-7 victory over the Blue Jays on August 23, the Orioles evened their record at 63-63 -- more than respectable for a club many picked to finish well below .500 for the season. It was all downhill from there, however, as Baltimore lost their next ten games in a row and 18 of 19 before taking finally two out of three in Boston in mid-September. That proved to be only a brief bright spot, as they lost their final 12 games to close out the season. After being 63-63 in late August, they went just 4-32 to finish the year. Included in that stretch were losing streaks of 8, 10 and 12. Ouch. Do you think any manager who started the season 4-32 would have kept his job? Probably not.

The Orioles are not a good offensive club, having outscored only the lowly Tigers last season; when your biggest offensive weapon is a guy who posted a .311 OBP (Jay Gibbons, though he did hit 28 homers and slug .482), you know you're in trouble. Around the entire diamond are players who don't hit enough to justify their defensive position, and signing Deivi Cruz (career OPS: .679) to play shortstop isn't going to help matters. It's not that they're horrible, it's just that... well, at least they outscored the Tigers.

The pitching staff has the potential to be decent. Rodrigo Lopez pitched very well last season, while Sidney Ponson and Jason Johnson were far from horrible. Free agent addition Omar Daal isn't horrible either, and the bullpen holds some nice arms as well, particularly with the recent signing of Kerry Ligtenberg. The O's were in the middle of the pack last year in terms of runs allowed and could wind up there again.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays
2002 record: 55-106
Runs scored: 673 (12th), Runs allowed: 918 (14th)

Say hello: Manager Lou Piniella, 2B Marlon Anderson, SS Rey Ordonez
Say goodbye: LHP Wilson Alvarez, 1B Steve Cox, C John Flaherty, IF Russ Johnson, LHP Steve Kent, RHP Ryan Rupe, IF Andy Sheets, RHP Tanyon Sturtze, RHP Paul Wilson, OF Randy Winn, RHP Esteban Yan

The scoop: Seeking to bring a shred of credibility to their beleaguered franchise, the Devil Rays swapped their only All-Star from a year ago, Randy Winn, for the fiery Lou Piniella. Sweet Lou may have mellowed in recent years, but that was primarily because he was running a ballclub that has averaged 100 wins over the past three seasons. Now he joins a club which averages 98 losses per year. You do the math.

Tampa Bay scored just 673 runs last season, and if anything they've gotten worse this winter. Gone are the aforementioned Winn, who while no world beater did lead the club with a .821 OPS. He'll probably be replaced by Carl Crawford, a tremendous athlete and a pretty good prospect who was rushed to the majors and still doesn't quite get the strikezone. Then there was the decision to trade for Rey Ordonez, an out machine if ever there were one. DH Aubrey Huff can be a very good hitter, but he certainly can't carry a team all by himself, particularly not one with this many outs in the lineup. And hey, whatever happened to future star Ben Grieve?

The pitching, sad to say, is not much better. Having finished dead last in the American League in runs scored last season (yeah, Pinella's really going to love that), they've added no one to the pitching staff. They have dumped the likes of Ryan Rupe, Tanyon Sturtze and Paul Wilson, leaving me to wonder where the innings are going to come from next year. It would appear that the future is now for prospects like Dewon Brazelton and Delvin James.

Wrap it up
Yes, once again the Yankees are the class of the division. Just when it appears the Red Sox have gotten close -- and they were very close last year, just check out each team's runs scored and runs allowed -- then something like Contreras or Matsui pops up. That's not to say it won't be a good race, however. The Blue Jays, as they have been seemingly forever, are firmly entrenched between two good teams and two, er, not so good ones. The Orioles aren't as good as last year's 63-63 start, but they aren't as bad as that 4-32 finish, either. Meanwhile, the Devil Rays really are as bad as they showed last season, and even Lou Piniella can't save them.

The prediction: New York, Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker heard a trade rumor involving Barry Bonds, Lou Piniella and a bag of gingersnaps, with a luxury car to be named later. Ask him if he's channeling Gammons when you write jmb@strikethree.com.

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