Offseason Capsule: AL Central

Jason Michael Barker

Last year the Twins shocked the world, more or less, by winning their first division title since 1991. Will they be able to stay atop the American League Central, or are the prospect-laden and even younger Cleveland Indians set to come out ahead? Then again, you might prefer the White Sox. Oh, and somewhere over there are the Tigers and Royals, but who's counting?

Teams are listed in order of their 2002 finish. For the most part, prospects are not included in "Say hello" unless the figure to play an important role in 2003. Likewise, players are not included in "Say goodbye" unless they contributed in 2002 (and by "contributed" I mean "played" -- you'll notice Neifi Perez is listed, for instance, and the only thing he contributed was outs).

Minnesota Twins
2002 record: 94-67
Runs scored: 768 (9th), Runs allowed: 712 (6th)

Say hello: None
Say goodbye: RHP Mike Jackson, RHP Matt Kinney, 1B David Ortiz, RHP Bob Wells

The scoop: Minnesota returns the same team from a year ago, more or less, with the four names listed above being the only real changes. Jackson pitched well out of the pen and is a guy I always root for because he's been pitching forever, but the Twins were wise to cut bait now. Ditto on Wells; it's no small wonder he's been around as long as he has. Ortiz was an interesting name to see released, but apparently there wasn't much interest in his services on the trade market. He was arbitration eligible, you see, and if there's one thing teams hate these days it's cost uncertainty. A smart team will sign him pretty quick.

The reason the Twins were able to let Ortiz go was their abundance of young 1B/DH/corner OF types: Michael Cuddyer, Bobby Kielty, Matthew LeCroy and Michael Restovich, not to mention minor leaguers Justin Morneau and Lew Ford. If they can just manage to patch things together up the middle, they'll have one heck of an offense here in a few years. In the meantime, they'll need to improve on their 9th place finish in runs scored from a year ago. A full season of Cuddyer in right and the gradual phasing out of Doug Mientkiewicz are good places to start.

Minnesota also finds themselves in the enviable position of having six capable major league starters in Kyle Lohse, Joe Mays, Eric Milton, Brad Radke, Rick Reed and Johan Santana. Santana is likely the odd man out to start the year, but if Reed gets off to a good start there will be more than a few teams knocking on the door to acquire his veteran services. Having six starters also guards somewhat against an injury; most teams (the Yankees excepted) would love to have this sort of depth in the starting rotation.

Chicago White Sox
2002 record: 81-81
Runs scored: 856 (3rd), Runs allowed: 798 (8th)

Say hello: C Sandy Alomar Jr., RHP Billy Koch
Say goodbye: SS Royce Clayton, RHP Keith Foulke, C Mark Johnson

The scoop: Last offseason, the White Sox traded a trio of pitchers to the Pirates for Todd Ritchie, in an attempt to add a veteran starter to a club many predicted to win their division. The move failed miserably and the team struggled to a .500 finish. They finally gave up late in the year, but were unable to get much in return for veterans Ray Durham, Kenny Lofton and Alomar; and now Alomar is back?! This winter's plan appears be to count on the young pitching, and you know how that can be.

Offensively, Chicago is in pretty good shape having scored the third-most runs in the league a year ago and with some good young hitters on the horizon. An outfield of Carlos Lee, prospect Joe Borchard and Magglio Ordonez should certainly be able to put runs on the board, while Paul Konerko, D'Angelo Jimenez, Joe Crede and Willie Harris (all 26 or younger) form a potentially solid infield. Jose Valentin and his underrated bat are available to spell the youngsters in both the infield and outfield. Finally, if Frank Thomas can regain the form the saw him hit .328/.436/.625 in 2000, watch out.

Unfortunately, the pitching leaves something to be desired; outside of young lefty Mark Buehrle, there's not a proven hurler in the bunch. The Sox are banking on the improvement of Jon Garland (4.58 ERA in 192.2 innings last season at age 22, but with serious K:BB ratio issues) and Dan Wright (5.18 ERA at age 24 in his first full major league season), as well as the emergence of former top prospect Jon Rauch, a 6-10 hard-thrower who has lost a great deal of time to injuries. There's certainly potential here, but "potential" isn't generally the word you use to describe a division-winning staff.

Cleveland Indians
2002 record: 74-88
Runs scored: 739 (10th), Runs allowed: 844 (10th)

Say hello: LHP Brian Anderson, RHP Jason Bere, 1B Travis Hafner, RHP Aaron Myette, OF Shane Spencer
Say goodbye: C Einar Diaz, RHP Ryan Drese, 1B Jim Thome, RHP Jaret Wright

The scoop: Having realized early on that they weren't going to win the division, the Indians dealt #1 starter Bartolo Colon to the Expos in a deal which rejuvenated their farm system. The trade pretty much ended their season, but it also netted them three top flight prospects in infielder Brandon Phillips, lefty Cliff Lee and OF Grady Sizemore. They then pulled off another steal this winter, nabbing dark-horse ROY candidate Hafner from Texas for replaceable catcher Diaz. Very nice.

Offensively, the Indians are in the process of handing the keys from the old to the new guard. Trading Diaz made way for catchers Victor Martinez and Josh Bard, the former of whom is arguably the top prospect at his position in the high minors. Hafner won't replace Thome's production at first, but he'll certainly hit and will do so on the cheap. Phillips figures to play second from now until Omar Vizquel departs, at which point he'll slide over to short. In the outfield and at DH, Ellis Burks, Matt Lawton and Shane Spener will soon move aside to make room for Ben Broussard, Alex Escobar and Sizemore, the first two figuring to get major playing time right away.

The pitching isn't quite ready to take this team the next step -- hence the signings of filler veterans such as Anderson and Bere -- but it's not all that far off either. Lee, acquired in the Colon swindle, and righty Ricardo Rodriguez (as well as lefties Brian Tallet and Billy Traber) figure to fight for rotation spots this spring behind ace CC Sabathia. The ace is actually younger than the prospects, but in this case that's not a bad thing. What's scary is that their best talent might be in the low minors.

Kansas City Royals
2002 record: 62-100
Runs scored: 737 (11th), Runs allowed: 891 (13th)

Say hello: RHP Albie Lopez, INF Desi Relaford
Say goodbye: RHP Paul Byrd, C A.J. Hinch, SS Neifi Perez

The scoop: Another year, another... what can you call it? Gone is cheap starter Paul Byrd, replaced by the less effective and more expensive Albie Lopez. They made the right move in dumping Perez, but they never should have traded Jermaine Dye for him in the first place. Just like they never should have traded Johnny Damon for Roberto Hernandez earlier that same year. They signed Mike Sweeney, a nice player who plays an easy-to-fill position, to an immense contract extension. And yet they're more than likely going to lose Carlos Beltran, a good hitter who happens to play center, either in trade or free agency. The more things change, they more things stay the same in Kansas City.

The Royals have three pretty good hitters in Sweeney, Beltran and Raul Ibanez. Actually, "pretty good" applies only to Ibanez; Sweeney posted a robust .979 OPS last season, while Beltran posted an .847 mark and seems to improve every year. He's also one heck of a base-stealer, having swiped 79 of 86 (92%) over the past three years. Outside of that, though, there's trouble in both the infield and outfield, not to mention behind the plate. Simply stated, this team is going to have a hard time scoring runs in 2003.

Well at least the pitching is OK, right? Not exactly. KC finished 13th in a 14-team league in runs scored a year ago, and now they've lost their best starter (Byrd) to free agency. Lopez, signed to replace him, had an ERA over seven in four starts last season. There are some raw young arms here -- most notably Miguel Asencio and Runelvys Hernandez -- but none of them have much polish. Young lefty Jeremy Affeldt pitched well in relief, but struggled as a starter. Likely starter Darrell May posted a 5.35 ERA in 131.1 innings, while Shawn Sedlacek was simply awful (6.72 ERA) in 84.1 innings. Really, there's not much to like here.

Detroit Tigers
2002 record: 55-106
Runs scored: 575 (14th), Runs allowed: 864 (11th)

Say hello: OF Gene Kingsale, RHP Gary Knotts
Say goodbye: RHP Juan Acevedo, 1B/OF Rob Fick, OF Damian Jackson, LHP Mark Redman, C Michael Rivera, 1B Randall Simon

The scoop: Having won just 55 games last year, things can't get much worse for the Tigers. Or can they? While the departed players listed above aren't world beaters by any stretch of the imagination, they do represent some of Detroit's best players from a year ago. Simon and Fick led the team with 19 and 17 homers respectively, while Simon led the team with a .301 average. The pair were also 1-2 in games played (Fick 148, Simon 130). Redman, meanwhile, was clearly the club's best starter after the midseason trade of Jeff Weaver, and Acevedo saved 28 games while posting a 2.65 ERA and leading the club with 65 appearances out of the pen.

The Tigers were dead-last in the American League in runs scored a year ago, and while some of that can be attributed to their home park, it's also worth noting that they finished last by over 100 runs. They also would have finished last in the NL by over 50 runs, which is pretty sad when you consider that those guys don't get to use a DH. Hope for 2003 rests on young 1B Carlos Pena, who saw better than 42% of his hits go for extra bases last season despite Comerica Park, young middle infielders Ramon Santiago and Omar Infante, a full healthy season from Dmitri Young, and anything at all from former top prospect Eric Munson.

As with the Royals, there are some arms here but nothing you'd look to build a staff around. Weaver and Redman were the best things the Tigers had going, so with them gone Detroit will turn to even more youngsters: Nate Cornejo, Shane Loux and Andy Van Hekken. Veteran knuckleballer (every team should have one) Steve Sparks and holdover "ace" Mike Maroth will likely round out the staff. The pen, with a bit more experience than the rotation, has the potential to be decent.

Wrap it up
With no major changes from a year ago and the best pitching in the division, the Minnesota Twins are my pick to repeat in the Central. Cleveland is moving in the right direction and could rule this division in another couple of years, but in the meantime they don't have the pitching to keep up with the Twins. Chicago, meanwhile, will continue to score runs but struggle to prevent them; think of them as Texas north. Last year in this same column I wrote, "The Tigers and Royals are still horrible, of course, and that doesn't seem likely to change in the near future." I'll save brain cells and stick with that.

The prediction: Minnesota, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City.

about the author

If Jason Michael Barker doesn't go finish the laundry, he's going to be in big, big trouble. But don't let that stop you from e-mailing your best tips for reusing dryer sheets to jmb@strikethree.com.

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