Prospect Report:
Hype Squad

David Cameron

And we're back. It feels like I haven't written a column since the last time someone wrote something nice about Drew Henson. You'd think his middle name was Martha the way his stock has been falling around the country. Of course, some of us are slower to give up on players than others, so I'll take my flak like a man and still defend the Yankee "phenom."

Henson segues us right into this week's column, though he doesn't make this particular list. While many would argue he belongs, he's not among my choices for the ten most overrated prospects in the game. Generally, this topic generates a lot of e-mail, and most of it contains the letter "F" mixed in with asterisks and dollar signs. Personally, I see ending up here as sort of a blessing. The reason players get over-hyped is because they've accomplished something. You won't end up here if no one thinks you have a future, so take solace in that before you decide I'm trying to ruin your son's career.

Moving on to the names of players whose futures may not be as bright as you've been led to believe. All of these guys have a chance to become major leaguers, but they've simply received more attention that is warranted, for one reason or another.

Starting at the bottom, this is a bittersweet nomination because I'm rooting for the guy, but it has become popular to put Dontrelle Willis among the elite left-handers in the game. There's no denying that he had a tremendous year after getting traded to the Marlins, and he got better after a late-season promotion to high-A. However, his stuff is still completely average, and he relies heavily on a deceptive motion to fool inexperienced hitters. This is still a guy with 30 innings of experience above low-A ball who doesn't have any standout pitches. His performance was terrific in 2002, but I'm not holding out for a repeat season.

Sneaking onto this list is a returnee from last year in Xavier Nady. His batting-practice power has caused people to overlook the fact that he's getting pretty old for a guy who was downright lousy in AAA this year. His injuries have slowed his development and sapped his defensive value. To be a valuable left fielder, you have to hit a ton, and Nady's done little to show that he's capable of putting up consistent stretches of above-average hitting.

You know Rocco Baldelli had a good year when he makes the list; at this point last year, most people were writing him off completely. However, his superficially high batting average and speed have gotten people a bit too excited. He's got a lot of potential as a center fielder that can hit a little bit, but talk of him hitting in the middle of a major-league lineup anytime soon is premature. His plate discipline is awful and his power is still lacking. If Tampa shows restraint for the first time in franchise history, Baldelli might just turn into the next Johnny Damon. Just remember, Johnny Damon was widely considered a bust until his contract run in Kansas City.

Moving into the slightly more obscure category, we find Oakland A's hurler Mike Wood. Because the Athletics have done a tremendous job of developing young pitchers lately, it has become fashionable to raise expectations for the current crop. You hear Tim Hudson's name thrown around a lot in comparison with Wood. Unfortunately for that analogy, Hudson actually made batters swing and miss frequently in the minor leagues. Wood has yet to show a consistent ability to rack up the strikeout, and it's hard to take projections of stardom too seriously until he does.

The Arizona Diamondbacks traded Erubiel Durazo because they had a younger, cheaper option coming up behind him. The only problem is that Lyle Overbay isn't nearly as good. While it is true that his career batting average is .344, he's also spent his entire minor-league career in hitter's havens playing against pitchers younger than himself. He's never shown much power for a first baseman, and he abandoned the base on balls this year. For Overbay to be a contributor at first base, he's going to have to be an on-base machine, and I don't see it happening. The D-Backs should have stuck with Durazo.

While a lot of the guys I find to be overrated get their hype based on speed, that is certainly not a factor with Kevin Youkilis. With the sabermetric community growing by the day, more and more analysts have taken to players who value the base on balls, and nobody does it better than Youkilis. Unfortunately, what has gotten lost in the shuffle is that walks by themselves do not win ballgames.

Youkilis is going to have a hard time sticking at third base defensively and he simply does not have the power to be an impact major-league first baseman. Only 20 percent of his hits in A-ball went for extra bases this year. That's middle infielder territory, folks. Getting on base is great, but you have to scare major-league pitchers a bit too. If they realize you can't hit it past the shortstop, you're going to see a lot of strikes. Remember that even Brian L. Hunter walked in AAA.

Moving on to the anti-Youkilis, we find Angel Berroa, who might walk less in his career than most will in their rookie year. Berroa managed to stay in the limelight despite aging two years over the offseason, posting a .277 on-base percentage in the hitter-happy PCL, and playing with so little effort he got scouts to stop turning in reports on him. He can be spectacular defensively, but he's horribly inconsistent, and his approach at the plate is akin to an 8-year-old trying to get candy from a piñata. The Royals might be foolish enough to hand him their starting shortstop job, but remember that they're replacing Neifi Perez.

If you're a Braves fan, you've heard a lot about your young pitching recently, and well you should. Though youngsters like Macay McBride continue to get overlooked, Kenny "Bubba" Nelson continues to bask in the glow of his 2002 ERA title. While Nelson allowed fewer earned runs than anyone else, he had an awful lot of help. Pitching in Myrtle Beach is about as cozy as you'll find, and he wasn't nearly the same pitcher away from the friendly confines.

Nelson's strikeout rate left a lot to be desired, and there are still legitimate reasons to be more concerned about his right arm than most. Nelson's a nice prospect, and he just missed making my soon-to-be-released Top 100, but he's got a giant challenge ahead of him if people don't lower their expectations.

Remember the big stories of May? The Expos are contending, the A's are terrible, and Chad Tracy is going to hit .400. Well, the A's won the most games in the AL, the Expos are a mess, and Chad Tracy will never hit .400. His .344 average in AA is impressive when you realize this was his first full season of professional baseball, but he offered very little beyond a lot of singles. He simply lacks major-league power for a corner infield spot and doesn't have a swing to expect more.

Tracy got enough hits that he didn't need bases on balls, but I'd be concerned if his average dropped below .300. He's going to have to Rod Carew his way into a long major-league career, and there have been very few Rod Carews in Major League Baseball.

Not to pile on the Royals, but we head back to Kansas City for our final stop with the player who has received the most attention this year without doing enough to deserve it. After a disappointing AAA season, Ken Harvey headed to the Arizona Fall League and hit like Babe Ruth in his prime. He broke records and led every pertinent offensive category there. His new stance was acclaimed as the reason for his success, and he's getting penciled in as Kansas City's opening day designated hitter.

Unfortunately, a career is not made by 117 good at-bats in Scottsdale during October. The list of players who have performed well in the AFL is long, but the list of players who have repeated that success is not. Here's what you need to know about Ken Harvey's time spent in Arizona: He broke the record for batting average and on-base percentage previously held by the immortal Scott Pose and the slugging percentage record held by Ryan Jackson. Ryan Jackson, in 452 major league at-bats, hit seven home runs and slugged .354.

about the author

David Cameron actually does enjoy piling on the Royals, or at least he used to. Just don't mention the restraining order at dac@strikethree.com.