Offseason Capsule: AL West

Jason Michael Barker

Welcome to another year of Strikethree.com -- it's our fifth, which makes us practically prehistoric on the good old Internet. The beginning of a new calendar year also means it's time for one of our great traditions, the offseason capsule. We begin today with the American League West and will cover one division each week, bringing us right to the start of that most glorious beast -- spring training. Teams are listed in order of their finish last season.

OAKLAND
2002 record: 103-59
Runs scored: 800 (8th), Runs allowed: 654 (2nd)

Say hello: Manager Ken Macha, 1B Erubiel Durazo, RHP Jeremy Fikac, RHP Keith Foulke, C Mark Johnson, OF Chris Singleton
Say goodbye: Manager Art Howe, 2B Ray Durham, LHP Mike Fyhrie, RHP Cory Lidle, OF David Justice, RHP Billy Koch, 1B/OF John Mabry, C Greg Myers, IF Olmedo Saenz, RHP Jeff Tam, IF Randy Velarde

The scoop: Never content to sit around twiddling his thumbs in the off-season, GM Billy Beane has once again sought out to make his team better. A year ago he lost Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon and Jason Isringhausen to free agency and the team proceeded to win one more game in 2002 than it had in 2001. This year the moves were a bit more subtle: a new manager, a better Giambi replacement, another new closer and a back-up catcher.

Despite their reputation as an offensive machine, the A's were just eighth in the league in runs scored a year ago. That figures to improve thanks to the addition of Durazo and a full healthy season from Jermaine Dye, who started slow in 2002 but got better as the season wore on. The addition of Chris Singleton is puzzling as he doesn't exactly fit with Oakland's high-OBP mentality; they could struggle if both he and fellow out-maker Terrence Long both start in the outfield.

On the pitching side, it's more of the same thing we've seen for the past couple years -- Mark Mulder, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson. Joining them this year is Ted Lilly, who never really got going after last season's trade to Oakland. Assuming he's healthy, those four are by far the best rotation in the division and perhaps all of baseball. Fifth starter Aaron Harang pitched well for being a rookie last season and should only improve. In the pen, Foulke is clearly an upgrade on Koch, while the under-appreciated Fikac (pronounced fee-kotch) was a good, cheap addition.

ANAHEIM
2002 record: 99-63
Runs scored: 851 (4th), Runs allowed: 644 (1st)

Say hello: OF Eric Owens
Say goodbye: RHP Al Levine

The scoop: Hey, when you win the World Series you're allowed not to change much. The two moves above are easily explained; Owens takes over fourth outfielder duties from Orlando Palmeiro and late-season acquisition Alex Ochoa, while setup man Levine is cast aside in favor of postseason hero Francisco Rodriguez. Levine for Rodriguez is a no brainer, though either Palmeiro or Ochoa would have been better choices than Owens. That's just a minor quibble, however.

Honestly, I look at Anaheim's roster and wonder how on earth they scored as many runs as they did last season. Of the nine players who amassed at least 400 at-bats, none had an OPS (on-base plus slugging) over .888; when your best hitter is Brad Fullmer, you're not supposed to win the World Series. On the other hand, only one hitter (Ben Molina) had an OPS under .700, so perhaps there's something to be said for this sort of balanced attack, rather than, say, Barry Bonds and eight trained chimps.

The starting rotation should be strong next season, anchored by two guys who keep getting better every year in Jarrod Washburn and Ramon Ortiz. Kevin Appier is like the Energizer bunny, and newcomer John Lackey showed last season (and postseason) he has what it takes to pitch at the Major League level. The bullpen you know: the no-name cast of Brendan Donnelly, Scot Shields and Ben Weber handle the middle innings, K-Rod blows 'em down in the eighth and Troy Percival sets 'em down in the ninth. The Rodriguez-Percival one-two punch will be like Rivera-Wetteland was for the Yankees back in 1996.

SEATTLE
2002 record: 93-69
Runs scored: 814 (6th), Runs allowed: 699 (5th)

Say hello: Manager Bob Melvin, 1B Greg Colbrunn, LHP Steve Kent, OF Randy Winn
Say goodbye: Manager Lou Piniella, RHP James Baldwin, LHP Doug Creek, IF/OF Charles Gipson, LHP John Halama, IF Desi Relaford, OF Ruben Sierra, RHP Ismael Valdes

The scoop: Despite falling to third in the division, the Mariners have done little, if anything, to improve themselves this off-season. That sort of behavior is OK when you win 116 games the year before, as they did in 2001, or when you win the World Series, as the Angels did in 2002, but not when you finish third. Not pictured above are the re-signing of C Dan Wilson, DH Edgar Martinez, 1B John Olerud and LHP Jamie Moyer, but that's not improving the team, it's keeping it the same.

Offensively, the only real change for next season is the addition of Winn (the so-called "Piniella bounty") in left field. Winn's a decent player in center, but doesn't have the bat for left. Throw in the move from Tropicana Field to Safeco Field, and last season's career year will likely be a thing of the past. Elsewhere, the offense is mostly just another year older. The only players with genuine room for improvement are SS Carlos Guillen (still young at 27), CF Mike Cameron and 3B Jeff Cirillo, the latter two coming off mediocre and very poor seasons respectively.

Seattle also failed to add another starter, despite their claims that it was a top priority this winter. Instead, the group of Freddy Garcia, Joel Pineiro and Moyer are back, with long reliever Ryan Franklin filling the fourth slot and a cast of several competing for the final spot in the rotation. Pineiro established himself as one of the top young pitchers in the league last season, but will be hard-pressed to repeat last season's 3.24 ERA. Meanwhile, Garcia must pitch more like he did before the break (3.44 ERA) than he did after it (5.66 ERA). The pen still features Arthur Rhodes, Jeff Nelson and Kazuhiro Sasaki, and should once again be the club's strength.

TEXAS
2002 record: 72-90
Runs scored: 843 (5th), Runs allowed: 882 (12th)

Say hello: Manager Buck Showalter, C Einar Diaz, RHP Ryan Drese, LHP Aaron Fultz, OF Doug Glanville, RHP John Thomson, RHP Ugueth Urbina, RHP Esteban Yan
Say goodbye: Manager Jerry Narron, LHP Juan Alvarez, IF/OF Frank Catalanotto, 1B Travis Hafner, RHP Hideki Irabu, RHP Aaron Myette, LHP John Rocker, C Ivan Rodriguez, LHP Kenny Rogers

The scoop: New manager, new attitude? The Rangers fired Jerry Narron at season's end -- did he ever really lose the "interim" tag? -- replacing him with proven winner Buck Showalter. Showalter won in New York and he won in Arizona, and certainly the current situation in Texas can't be any worse than taking over an expansion club, as he did with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen if he can assemble a decent pitching staff, but with that offense decent is pretty much all they need.

Despite the losses of Rodriguez and Catalanotto, the Rangers still have plenty of offense. Rafael Palmeiro, Alex Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez... the gang's all here. Hank Blalock should get another shot at third base, and if he falters super prospect Mark Teixeira is more than ready to step in. Kevin Mench showed good pop in limited at-bats last season, and should have a bigger role now that Catalanotto is elsewhere. The additions of Diaz and Glanville mean two extra outs in the lineup, so this isn't quite the juggernaut it used to be, but scoring runs shouldn't be a problem.

Much like last season, the Rangers have overhauled their pitching staff. The decision to pass on Rogers is questionable, but certainly understandable given his age and salary, and it's hard to argue with getting rid of the likes of Irabu, Myette and Rocker. Still, though, question marks abound: Can Chan Ho Park bounce back from last season's injury-plagued campaign? Can Urbina stay healthy? Who among the young pitchers (Joaquin Benoit, Ben Kozlowski, Colby Lewis) will step up and claim a rotation spot? The staff appears to be moving in the right direction, but they're not there yet.

Wrap It Up
Despite what happened in the postseason, Oakland is still clearly the class of this division. Anaheim played over their heads last season and is due for a fall, particularly on offense where they just aren't that good. Meanwhile, Seattle will decline slightly but remain competitive; enough to fend off the Angels for a distant second behind Oakland, at least. Texas, while they're probably improved, still doesn't have the pitching to hang with the other three.

The prediction: Oakland, Seattle, Anaheim, Texas

Finally, I wanted to make sure you're aware that my two favorite annual publications are available for pre-order. I don't mention this because I want you to order them for me (I've already ordered), but because you should have them on your personal list. Baseball Prospectus you're probably aware of; they turn out great stuff in both their book and on their web site. BP 2003 is schedule to ship on February 1.

The second is The Prospect Book, formerly the STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook. STATS Inc., in their infinite wisdom (that's sarcasm), decided to stop printing this book so author John Sickels has taken his show solo. No specific shipping date has been scheduled, but John estimates the book's release as mid-February. You can get more details (and place your order) at his web site.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker buys more baseball books every year, much to the dismay of his now overflowing bookshelf. Ask how he knows his bookshelf is dismayed when you write to jmb@strikethree.com.

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