Nashville Express

Jason Michael Barker

What would have been a bigger story: the Expos actually trading Vladimir Guerrero, or the entire winter meetings passing without a single deal? The latter, of course, though it seemed for a few days there that it might just happen. After the assorted general managers awoke from their Colon-Vazquez-Guerrero induced stupors and realized there were other teams to trade with, we were treated to a few deals.

The first trade, of the oh-so-hip multiple team variety, featured an element so predictable that even people who didn't know how Titanic ended could have seen it coming: Erubiel Durazo is now a member of the Oakland Athletics. Oakland GM Billy Beane has been after Durazo for so long he went so far as to call him his "Holy Grail." At press time, Strikethree.com's sources were unable to confirm if, in fact, the Diamondbacks had included the Killer Rabbit as a throw-in.

(If you didn't get that joke, run right out and buy Monty Python and the Holy Grail on DVD.)

When the dust had settled, we were left with the following:

To Oakland: 1B Erubiel Durazo
To Arizona: RHP Elmer Dessens, $1M
To Cincinnati: SS Felipe Lopez
To Toronto: RHP Jay Arnold and/or OF John-Ford Griffin

One thing that's not clear -- other than why in the world you aren't watching Monty Python at this point -- is which prospect(s) Oakland is sending to Toronto. Some reports claim it's Arnold, others say Griffin and still others maintain both players are part of the deal. Incidentally, Oakland acquired both Arnold and Griffin from the Yankees last year as part of the deal which sent Jeff Weaver to New York, Ted Lilly to the A's and Carlos Pena to Detroit.

There's a little something to like for each team in this deal, although I think it's pretty clear Arizona is coming out behind unless Dessens somehow manages to repeat last season's 3.05 ERA. Unfortunately for both parties, his incredibly low strikeout rate (just 93 in 178 innings, or less than five per nine innings) is not a good indicator of future success. Of course, given that he's only being counted on as the #3 starter following Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, the Diamondbacks would probably be thrilled if he throws 200 innings and posts an ERA close to his 4.29 career mark.

As for Durazo, the D'Backs will probably look back on this deal next season and wish they had kept him instead of the punchless Mark Grace and Lyle Overbay. Still, this might not be the steal for Oakland that many seem to think it is. For one, Durazo needs to stay healthy. For all the hype, you're still talking about a guy who has averaged under 200 at-bats per season in his big league career. Part of that can be blamed on his managers, but he hasn't exactly been an ironman out there, either.

Second, he'll have to prove he can hit left-handed pitching. Arizona never really gave him a chance, but in 108 at-bats over the past three seasons lefties have held Durazo to a .204/.298/.296 line, roughly the equivalent of Rey Ordonez. Yes, 108 at-bats is a small sample, but a small sample is better than no sample. If he can't overcome these two obstacles, the A's will simply have a nice platoon player rather than the star-in-the-making some have made Durazo out to be.

Meanwhile, Toronto picks up a pair of nice prospects in exchange for one of their own who had fallen out of favor with the organization. Arnold has pretty good stuff, specifically a low-90s heater and good slider, though some thing he'll be best suited to relief work; a comparison you're likely to hear is current Seattle reliever Jeff Nelson. The Blue Jays will give him every opportunity to succeed as a starter first, though. Griffin, a very polished hitter drafted out of college two years ago, is not far from the majors having spent time at AA last season. He missed some time with an injury and will likely need to work off the rust, probably at AAA Syracuse, but he should be a good one.

Finally, the Reds picked up the player who should replace Barry Larkin at shortstop in 2004 (or sooner, if Larkin can't stay healthy). Lopez has great physical tools -- power, speed, a strong throwing arm -- but the Blue Jays soured on him this year due to a perceived lack of dedication to improving himself as a player. It didn't help that Chris Woodward hit 13 homers in 90 games, either. Just 22 years of age and a career .292/.363/.490 hitter at AAA, Lopez should be a fine player in time assuming he gets his head on straight.

The Reds also did quite well for themselves in an earlier deal, picking up prospects Josh Thigpen and Tony Blanco from the Red Sox in exchange for 2B Todd Walker. Walker's not a bad player by any stretch, but he still doesn't hit left-handed pitching well and stands to make $3.4M next season. That's not a big deal if you're the Red Sox, but he's not the sort of luxury the Reds can afford.

Thigpen, 20, fanned 87 in 82.2 innings last season and works with a mid-90s fastball and developing slider. He's still somewhat raw at this point, but is big (6-4), projectable and throws very hard. Blanco is even more of a project, with raw power but very little in the way of strikezone judgment. He could also use work on his defense at third, but he just turned 21 and certainly has time to improve in both areas. Both Thigpen and Blanco are far from the majors, but are good gambles to take in return for a player the Reds didn't really need anyway, and certainly didn't want to pay.

Perhaps in an effort to completely rid the system of prospects, new Boston GM Theo Epstein also traded RHP Josh Hancock to the Phillies for 1B/DH/slug Jeremy Giambi. Hancock pitched well at AA Trenton last season with a 69:18 K:BB ratio and 3.61 ERA in 84.2 innings, then moved up to AAA Pawtucket where a decline in his peripheral numbers was masked by a 3.45 ERA. He still needs some work and doesn't project as a star, but it helps to have solid guys like this in your system.

There's no arguing that the player the Red Sox acquired for Hancock can hit, though. Giambi got on base at a .414 clip last season and saw better than 45% of his hits go for extra bases, but was deemed expendable in Philadelphia due to the arrival of Jim Thome. Unlike Durazo, Giambi doesn't struggle with left-handed pitching, with virtually no difference in his platoon splits over the past three seasons (.850 OPS vs. RHP, .832 vs. LHP).

He appears to be getting better each season with increased playing time and he'll probably be Boston's regular starter at either first or designated hitter next season, which should mean topping his career high of 371 at-bats in 2001. In any event, he's an immediate upgrade over the likes of Tony Clark and Brian Daubach, who manned those positions for the Red Sox last season.

Finally, the Twins released 1B/DH David Ortiz to make room on their 40-man roster for a Rule 5 draftee. If your team needs a relatively cheap left-handed slugger with 30 homer potential who'll take a walk, start writing letters to your general manager immediately. Ortiz won't be on the open market forever, and he's going to make some team very happy for the next couple of seasons.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker's Holy Grail is not Eurbiel Durazo, but rather the perfect ballpark hotdog. Don't break his heart by telling him no such thing exists when you write to jmb@strikethree.com.

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