Prospect Report:
Organization Strength Part 2: The Average

David Cameron

Last week, we covered the bottom third in terms of minor-league talent. This week, we move into the middle ground. While there are quality prospects in these systems, they either lack depth or a franchise talent that would propel them into the upper echelon. Even so, all of the organizations below should produce solid talent for their parent clubs in the not-too-distant future.

Each organizational summary also includes its player most likely to make it to the majors, its player with the most potential in the system, and its likely breakthrough candidate for 2003.

20. Houston Astros

Over the past five years, few teams have put more players in the major leagues than the Astros. Their current lack of impact prospects is mostly a result of the cyclical nature of the game. After pumping out all-stars on a near-yearly basis, 2003 looks like a bit of a down year. Expect the player-development machine in Houston to be back rolling in no time, however.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: John Buck, C
Most Potential: Brad Lidge, RHP
2003 Breakthrough: Fernando Nieve, RHP

19. Colorado Rockies

While Dan O'Dowd continues to try and solve the mystery of altitude, he's going to have a tough time finding answers from within. The Rockies have an abundance of nice-but-not-spectacular prospects. Nearly all of their best talents have at least one flaw that may prevent them from achieving more than role player status in the big leagues.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Jack Cust, OF/1B
Most Potential: Chin Hui Tsao, RHP
2003 Breakthrough: Tony Miller, OF

18. Pittsburgh Pirates

Their new organizational philosophy of not promoting prospects during the season makes the Pirates' players tough to project. While all their farm teams had success, they largely consisted of players too advanced for their level. The lack of one premium potential star drags down a pretty solid group of nice prospects.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Sean Burnett, LHP
Most Potential: John VanBenSchoten, RHP
2003 Breakthrough: Mike Connolly, RHP

17. Chicago White Sox

The system is quite thin after a very solid top three, and their plethora of arms from a year ago seems like a distant memory. The lower levels were nearly barren of talent, so expect the Pale Hose to drop on this list next year. The Sox have done a good job of finding and developing players, so they'll be back.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Joe Borchard, OF
Most Potential: Joe Borchard, OF
2003 Breakthrough: Kris Honel, RHP

16. San Diego Padres

After putting three of the best young talents into the NL this year, the Padres' system is in reload mode. Almost all of the offensive prospects are very questionable defensive players, and the remaining pitchers have struggled through inconsistency. Kevin Towers is probably going to have to make some trades, and I'd expect several of the more notable prospects to be on the move.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Khalil Greene, SS
Most Potential: Khalil Greene, SS
2003 Breakthrough: Rusty Tucker, LHP

15. Milwaukee Brewers

The oft-maligned reign of Dean Taylor has ended, but he did leave some quality talent behind for Doug Melvin. The Brewers have done a decent job of acquiring players, but they've suffered in the development area. They need to slow down their aggressive nature of pushing players before they are ready, along with instituting some knowledge of the strike zone.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Brad Nelson, 1B
Most Potential: Prince Fielder, 1B
2003 Breakthrough: Mike Jones, RHP

14. New York Mets

With several elite prospects on the way, Mets fans have reason to be optimistic about the future. There is very little depth beyond the big five, and they only have one player who is ready for the majors. It is a very high-risk talent base, but the potential payoffs are quite large.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Aaron Heilman, RHP
Most Potential: Jose Reyes, SS
2003 Breakthrough: Matt Peterson, RHP

13. Florida Marlins

The Fish have a good deal of infield talent that will need to sort itself out before reaching Miami. The depth of arms isn't as good as it has been in the past, but there are some intriguing pitchers in the system. They are carried to an above-average ranking by three potential all-stars, but all three have flaws. There isn't a sure bet in the organization.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Blaine Neal, RHP
Most Potential: Miguel Cabrera, 3B
2003 Breakthrough: Will Smith, OF

12. Los Angeles Dodgers

Despite giving up a pair of quality arms at the trade deadline, the Dodgers still have a pretty solid group of talent. They mix several major-league-ready infielders with a high-ceiling slugger and some interesting arms that had little trouble with low-level hitters. Their best talents are a couple of years away, but they'll get some immediate help from several role players.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Joey Thurston, 2B
Most Potential: James Loney, 1B
2003 Breakthrough: Joel Hanrahan, RHP

11. Oakland Athletics

Reloaded the farm system with a few good trades and a bundle of safe draft picks. There aren't any potential superstars in the mix, but few teams boast as many major-league talents as the A's. Their quantity outweighs the quality, but they'll likely find one jewel among all the young arms. Most of the hitters are defensive liabilities and could move to less demanding positions.

Most Likely Major-leaguer: Jason Arnold, RHP
Most Potential: Rich Harden, RHP
2003 Breakthrough: Steve Obenchain, RHP

about the author

David Cameron likes nothing better than bending a scout's ear. Suggest next time he try a Dutch rub at dac@strikethree.com.