Baseballhead:
Arbitrary? Perhaps

Michael Cox

I wish I could say I'm writing this week's edition of Baseballhead fully recharged after a refreshingly relaxing Las Vegas trip, but who actually relaxes in Las Vegas? Of course, that argument I got into with a blackjack pit boss didn't help things much either (I don't care if you own the casino; suggesting to your customers that they shouldn't split a pair of aces isn't going to win you many friends).

Coincidentally, at almost almost the exact moment my return flight touched down Saturday night, an important baseball deadline occurred. No, not last call at David Wells' favorite bar. Teams had until midnight to either offer their outgoing free agents salary arbitration or effectively kick them to the curb.

It's a lot tougher decision than you might think, because of the nature of MLB's arbitration process. First, the player submits his desired salary, which is usually the most money he could possibly expect to earn in his wildest fantasies. Meanwhile, the team submits the figure they wish to pay, which is usually the smallest amount they feel they could get away with.

Then, if the two sides don't negotiate a deal in the interim, either one figure or the other is selected by an arbitrator whose resume includes nothing resembling a professional baseball career path. The process rarely gets to that point, however. Where A-list stars are concerned, it's all but understood that the only reason the team offered arbitration in the first place was to buy more time to negotiate a market-value deal.

In addition, players need not accept arbitration. In fact, most teams would probably prefer it if the player rejects arbitration, which gives the team the best of both worlds: the right to continue negotiating through the winter, and the ability to just walk away if those negotiations aren't working out.

For example, the Braves offered arbitration to both Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, the latter offer despite the news that Glavine had agreed to terms with the Mets. (Better safe than sorry -- you never know whether Steve Phillips might forget to attach the side agreement to also add Glavine's hairdresser to the payroll, negating the entire deal.) Neither player will go to arbitration and Time Warner knows it, but it keeps everyone's options open.

The only players who seem to make it to arbitration are those who are likely to lose, and even if they win, their teams are probably going to be out no more than an extra half-million. In other words, your basic garden-variety scrub. (Think Brian L. Hunter, who lost once in arbitration with the Tigers, then won with the Mariners, who were required to pay only one-sixth of his new hard-fought salary when they released him during spring training.)

Neither owners nor players particularly like this arbitration business, and it's further complicated by the new "luxury tax" -- stymied by other teams' unwillingness to take overpriced roster filler off their hands, the Yankees had to cut Mike Stanton loose rather than take the chance that he'd win an arbitration hearing.

So when you look at it, the whole function of free agent salary arbitration is that of a little dance -- the team shows it's interested, then the player accepts in order to either keep negotiating or just keep his job, then the team tries like hell to sign the player to a non-arbitrated deal.

This year, only 24 players were offered arbitration, while 107 players were told not to let the door hit 'em on the way out. Top of the turned-loose list was Ivan "Help Me, I've Now Got Two Nicknames" Rodriguez, whose string of injuries and the Rangers' nutty payroll didn't bode well for an extension. Still, however, Rangers owner Tom Hicks tried to paint the move as something out of his control:

"This was a very tough decision and certainly one that will be painful for the fans. ... I wish baseball's economic system and arbitration process did not force this decision at this time and in this way."

There is a kernel of truth to Hicks' statement -- to Rodriguez a one-year deal through arbitration might be an attractive option. If he can prove he's now healthy it's likely an arbitrator will rule based on Pudge's performance during those uninjured stretches. As for his heart-tugging lament about that mean ol' economic system, Hicks not only voted for the current rules, he spent himself into a corner in an apparent attempt to beat Jerry Jones and Mark Cuban for the Nutty Dallas-Area Sports Owner Cup.

It's not the first time Hicks has blamed NotMe for a fan-unfriendly move -- shortly after he proudly agreed to shell out substantially more than any other team offered for Alex Rodriguez, the owner told the citizenry that ticket prices had to rise just to pay mean ol' A-Rod, confident that the Metroplex populace thought "supply and demand" was a 1940s comedy duo.

I was almost hoping Hicks would make up an alternate reality to explain the loss of Kenny Rogers, whose contract stipulated that the team could not offer arbitration. Rogers may now become a consolation prize for the Phillies, who have been unable so far to sign any of the free agent pitchers they've been eyeing, as Glavine went to the Mets and Jamie Moyer returned to Seattle.

On the other side of the coin, the Giants seemed to shock a lot of reporters when they offered Jeff Kent arbitration despite their position that they wouldn't re-sign him. The move should have shocked no one -- Kent would probably have to fall headfirst while washing his truck before he'd take a one-year deal, so it was a low-risk move for the Giants, who may now continue to pitch a creative solution that might keep him by the Bay.

The Braves' offer of arbitration to Greg Maddux is a sign that he'll probably end up back in Atlanta next season, especially now that Glavine is gone. Arbitration-offer-as-formality is certainly the case for Roger Clemens, who has already earned $10.3 million this offseason simply by declining his own option for 2003 as previously agreed with the Yankees. What creative measures will Da Boss take to keep some of Clemens' money off the payroll books this time? Stay tuned.

Boring December? Not hardly. Oh, and it gets better -- the winter meetings start this week. Ho, ho, ho.

about the author

Michael Cox offered arbitration to his local espresso place, but they declined. Tell him to agree to the long-term coffee card at mc@strikethree.com.