Philadelphia Freedom

Jason Michael Barker

David Bell: Four years, $17M.

Jim Thome: Six years, $86M.

So it turns out the Phillies weren't just blowing smoke about being this winter's biggest player on the free agent market. Can they possibly have enough cash left to add "Tom Glavine: Three years, $30M" to the short list above? Stay tuned.

When I heard of the Thome signing today, my first thought was that it gave the Phillies the best offense in the National League East. Thome, of course, is one of the game's top sluggers, having led the American League in slugging percentage, walks and OPS, while finishing second in homers and on-base percentage. He hits, and he hits a ton.

Surround him with Bobby Abreu (age 28, career OPS of .931) and Pat Burrell (age 26, career OPS .857 and rising) and suddenly you're looking at a darned formidable 3-4-5 heart of the batting order. I don't know if three teammates have ever each drawn 100 walks in a single season, but these three could do it next year without much difficulty, as well as topping the 30-homer mark.

Elsewhere you've got Mike Lieberthal, horribly overpaid but not a horrible hitter as far as catchers go, a young and improving Jimmy Rollins at shortstop and the decidedly average David Bell at third. That's right, I said "average." For all the crap Bell has taken lately -- and yes, I too think his contract is more than a bit excessive -- you'd think he was Rey Ordonez or something. In fact, I dare say his numbers last season weren't bad when you consider his home park is the toughest place to hit in all of baseball. Finally, Marlon Byrd (.297/.362/.476 at AAA last season) takes over in center for Doug Glanville.

All told you're looking at three very good hitters and some other serviceable parts. Which, come to think of it, sounds an awful lot like... you guessed it -- the Atlanta Braves. Sure they played Julio Franco at first last season, but thanks to Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Gary Sheffield they scored only two fewer runs than the Phillies did last season. You can play the same game with the Braves, too: regular playing time for Marcus Giles, a rebound from Rafael Furcal and any sort of marginal improvement over Franco.

While we're at it, why not the Mets? They scored just 20 fewer runs than the Phillies over the course of last season, despite horrible years from Roberto Alomar and Jeromy Burnitz, and with Mike Piazza playing in just 135 games. Again, you can play the same game here -- if Alomar, Burnitz, Piazza and Mo Vaughn hit their career averages, the Mets will be much improved without having made a single move this winter.

This is not to blast the Phillies for signing Thome, because it's clear he was the best free agent hitter on the market and will be an immediate boost to their offense for next season and beyond. I do wonder if he's quite the magic piece of the puzzle for winning that division, though, particularly when they finished 21.5 games out of first place and only five games out of the cellar.

A friend asked me today if I think Philadelphia can win 90 games next season. Seeing as they won 80 last season, it's certainly not outside the realm of possibility. VORP (available exclusively, to the best of my knowledge, at BaseballProspectus.com) figures the difference between Thome and Travis Lee to be about 87 runs, or roughly eight wins over the course of the season, which means Thome could get them to 90 all by himself. They'd also need repeat performances from Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla, not to mention some sort of serviceable third starter.

Realistically, I think the Phillies probably will win 90 games if they can do something mentioned way back at the start of this column -- signing Tom Glavine to a contract. He'll be 37 before next season starts and I certainly wouldn't want to sign him to a three-year contract at $10+M per, but that doesn't mean he won't be a good pitcher in 2003. He'd also take some of the pressure off the aforementioned Wolf and Padilla, meaning they'd only have to find two starters among Brett Myers, Dave Coggin, Brandon Duckworth, Bud Smith and the immortal Joe Roa. Looking at those names -- well, not perhaps Roa -- adding Glaving would give them a potentially mighty fine rotation to go along with that mighty fine 3-4-5 punch in the batting order.

It's not my money, so what the heck? Make it happen, Ed Wade. Fans in Philadelphia haven't had much to cheer about in the last ten years, and you've got a new ballpark opening in 2004. Thome. Glavine. It all has a very nice ring to it. And as long as you're stealing from your divisional rivals, why not lure Edgardo Alfonzo away from the Mets and stick him at second?

Besides, it would be nice to see someone other than the Braves win the National League East for once.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker seems to have developed a serious case of the Philadelphia Fever. Prescribe a double dose of Boston Baked Beans when you write jmb@strikethree.com.

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