Prospect Report:
Self-Starters, Part 1

David Cameron

I have a feeling this column will generate more e-mail than most others, if only because of the depth of quality starting pitchers who throw from the right side. There are some terrific young arms who just missed out, but definitely have major-league potential. Finding yourself below is a sign that you are the cream of the crop in a very good class of pitchers.

No one moved further up the list this year than Jesse Foppert. With a classic power pitcher's build and a pair of strikeout pitches, Foppert blitzed his way through the Texas League and found himself in AAA in his first full season of pro ball. He tired down the stretch and he lacks a good third pitch, so some speculate he may eventually end up in the bullpen. He's not quite in the same league as Josh Beckett or Mark Prior, but he is the class of this year's pitching prospects.

The Giants also boast Jerome Williams, who just might have more potential than Foppert. His velocity was inconsistent this year, but he's capable of throwing 95 and has a good selection of breaking balls. He handled AAA at age 20, a remarkable feat considering how friendly the Pacific Coast League is to hitters. Williams was once compared to Dwight Gooden, but that was a bit zealous. His upside is significant, however, and he's got a chance to be a true number-one starter.

The Braves continue to churn out pitching prospects, with Adam Wainwright staking his claim as the next in the long line of phenoms from Atlanta. The 6'6" Georgian boasts what is probably the best curveball in the minors. His breaking ball is a legitimate strikeout pitch and his changeup isn't too far behind. His fastball has hit 95, though he's more comfortable in the low 90s now. He's thin as a rail, and he'll add power as he gains weight. He's probably a year away from Atlanta, but he could come along sooner if he handles AA in 2003.

The Mariners saw the positives and the negatives of Rafael Soriano after a midseason promotion to Seattle. His fastball and slider are quality major-league pitches, but he lacks an adequate third pitch and his control is still marginal. His shoulder soreness isn't a good sign, but he did look like his old self in the Texas League playoffs. He'll be given a shot to win a spot on the Mariners' roster during spring training. If he ever does develop a changeup, he could be devastating. At worst he should have a nice career as a reliever, as long as his arm holds up.

More good news for San Francisco as Kurt Ainsworth rounds out the top five. He's major-league ready and should fight for a job in the Giants' rotation next spring. Most people don't realize Ainsworth is only 24 years old, considering he's been receiving attention for the past three seasons. He's never had the breakthrough season that gets a lot of exposure, but he's steadily climbed the ladder and should produce at the next level as well.

If strikeouts are your thing, then Clint Nageotte is your guy. He led everyone in punchouts, and it wasn't particularly close. Even after adjusting for the Cal League average, Nageotte was the most prolific strikeout pitcher in the minors this year. His mid-90s fastball sets up one of the best breaking balls in the minors. His mechanics aren't perfect, and he struggles with his control from time to time. He needs to continue to develop a third pitch and gain experience, but he's not too far away from Seattle.

Gavin Floyd garnered a lot of interest after flashing two big-time pitches in the South Atlantic League. After being the number-four overall pick in 2001, he showed the fastball and big-time curve that caused the Phillies to view him as a future number-one starter. Philadelphia limited the amount of breaking balls he could throw, causing his strikeout numbers to suffer. He's got the pure stuff to be a classic power pitcher, but he's still got some learning to do. The Phillies might jump him to AA next year, but the more prudent route would be a trip to high-A. If he can handle the leap, he'll rank among the premier prospects in the game next year.

The A's continue to find good young arms, and Rich Harden vaulted himself to the head of their class with a breakthrough season. A former draft-and-follow, Harden was barely on the radar despite an impressive debut in the Northwest League last year. He had little problems at either high-A or in the AA Texas League. Just 21 years old, Harden is still learning to mix his pitches and relies on a heavy fastball and solid curveball to get ahead in the count. His biggest obstacle in making the leap to Oakland will be developing a complementary third pitch to keep hitters off balance. He'll probably spend most of 2003 in AAA, but he could push himself into the A's rotation if needed.

The Rangers have some pitching help on the way in the form of Colby Lewis. The young flamethrower with a devastating slider saw some action in Texas late in the year, and he has a good chance of breaking 2003 with the big club. His fastball/slider combination is as good as most you'll find in the majors, but his control leaves quite a bit to be desired. Lewis is near impossible to hit when he's ahead in the count, but he doesn't get there often enough. There has been talk of moving Lewis to the bullpen, but the Rangers would be wise to see how long he can stick as a starting pitcher. If he does end up relieving, Lewis should be one of the most dominant closers in the game.

Aaron Heilman lacks the impressive fastball or big breaking pitch that most of the other players here have, but he finds success through other methods. His control is impeccable and he mixes his pitches as well as anyone in the game. This isn't to imply that he doesn't have solid stuff, as his fastball has good sink and sits in the low 90s. Heilman isn't going to be a big-time strikeout pitcher, but he's extremely polished and durable. While he profiles as more of a number-three starter than an ace, he's also the safest bet on this list to have a viable major-league career. He won't be spectacular, but he'll get the job done effectively, and that is an underrated commodity.

about the author

David Cameron also has a good sink and sits in the low 90s. Suggest that plaid flannel and hats with earflaps are once again only fashionable in Montana at dac@strikethree.com.

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