Free as a Bird

Jason Michael Barker

What's the stranger story this off-season: that both Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine are free agents, or that the Philadelphia Phillies are attempting to emerge as this winter's big spender? ("Hey big spender, dig this blender!") Then there's this little gem: late last week the Yankees were crying poor and talking about having to trade Jorge Posada, but just a few days later they were linked to a Mike Hampton rumor. Hmm.

But ah yes, free agency... where smart teams spend their money wisely and the Devil Rays lock up Greg Vaughn for a mere $34M over four years. Players eligible for free agency still have another week to file, but for the most part all the big names have already sent in their paperwork. Here's a quick rundown of who you should hope your favorite team should be going after... and who you should hope they avoid like the plague.

Catcher
Perhaps the most intriguing free agent this winter is Ivan Rodriguez, who turns 31 on the last day of November. Rodriguez is good both at the plate with a bat and behind it with a glove, but can he stay healthy? The track record for catchers as they enter their thirties is not good and Pudge hasn't played in more than 111 games since 1999, having been sidelined with both back and knee injuries. After a slow start, he finished the season on a tear, posting a .943 OPS after the All Star break. In any event, he's unlikely to command the kind of money he would have several years ago.

Other backstops on the market include MattWalbeck, Greg Myers, Joe Girardi, Sandy Alomar Jr., Jorge Fabregas and Tom Lampkin; in other words, it's slim pickings. Eligible for free agency but yet to file is Seattle's Dan Wilson, who at 33 could be a very bad signing for a club who can't see past his empty .295 batting average of last season.

First base
The cream of the crop here is certainly Jim Thome, who has been one of the game's best sluggers over the past seven years. After a few years in which he was simply good rather than great, Thome absolutely crushed the ball the past two seasons, hitting 49 and 52 homers respectively. For those who are concerned with such things, he also cut his strikeout rate last season from "alarming" to "tolerable." Only four months older than Jason Giambi, he's certainly not too old to give a big contract if you're looking to make a splash.

Sitting a distant second -- but also sitting way above the rest of the non-Thome field -- is John Olerud. While Olerud's a nice player and much better defensively, this will be a case where you get what you pay for. In addition to being two years younger, Thome is also a vastly superior hitter -- Olerud has slugged over .500 just twice in his career, while Thome's boasts a .567 career mark as well as an on-base percentage that's ten points higher. That's not to say Olerud is a bad investment, but for just a bit more you can have a much better player.

The rest: Tony Clark, Frank Thomas, Lee Stevens, Greg Colbrunn, Fred McGriff, Andres Galarraga, Julio Franco.

Second base
As with first base, there's a clear leader, a clear second and then everyone else. The leader is Jeff Kent, fresh off yet another strong season. You can bet Kent was happy to see the contract Bret Boone signed last winter, considering he had been putting up numbers like Boone's for several seasons. Kent will turn 35 in March, but so far has been one of those players who has been better after age 30 than before it. How much he has left remains to be seen.

The runner-up is Ray Durham, who made the post-season with Oakland after years with the White Sox. Durham does a little bit of everything -- .280 average, 70 walks, 15 homers, 25 steals -- though he doesn't do any one thing exceptionally well. Still, most teams would love that sort of production at second base and at the top of their lineup. As an added bonus, he's three and a half years younger than Kent and probably shouldn't cost as much.

The rest: Rey Sanchez, Luis Alicea, Jay Bell, Keith Lockhart

Shortstop
No Alex Rodriguez this year, though if you wait another year you can have a shot at Miguel Tejada. Wait two years, and you can go after Nomar Garciaparra. Well, potentially at least. This year, your choices are much more limited. Mike Bordick might retire, not that you'd want him anyway. Ditto Deivi Cruz. Rey Sanchez, listed above with the second basemen, wouldn't be a bad bet -- his bat really shouldn't play anywhere other than shortstop, and he's stellar with the glove.

Still, the most interesting name on the list is Milwaukee's Jose Hernandez, who was benched the last four games of the season so he wouldn't set a new single-season strikeout record. The strikeout talk really overshadows what he did last season, however, which was put together a pretty solid offensive campaign -- .288/.356/.478, with 52 walks in 525 at-bats (right at the 10% mark) and roughly one-third of his hits going for extra bases. He had always shown pretty good pop for a middle infielder, but Hernandez really broke through last season. Given the chance to work with a good hitting instructor next season, he could build on his strong 2002.

Third base
How about a pair of New York third basement to get the discussion going? After two years with the Mets during which time he hit in the .230's and many questioned if he still had the bat speed to hit major league pitching, Robin Ventura rebounded with a nice year in New York, this time with the Yankees following an off-season trade. Despite hitting just .247, he was productive thanks to 27 homers and 90 walks. Elsewhere, new Mets third baseman Edgardo Alfonso rebounded from a horrible 2001 to hit well last season, albeit without the power he once displayed.

While Ventura is 35 and seemingly on the decline, Alfonso is just 29 and can still be considered in his prime. However, he also has some serious injury concerns, particularly with his back, which has been an ongoing problem and could be the reason for his sudden lack of power. A move back to the middle infield might be in order, perhaps to a less demanding position such as second base, as it would fit better with his new offensive levels and perhaps keep him healthier in the long run.

The rest: Ron Coomer, David Bell, Bill Mueller

Tune in next week when I'll take a look at pitchers and outfielders, as well as any signings which happen between now and then.

about the author

For the fifth consecutive year, Jason Michael Barker has been denied free agency by Strikethree.com's powers that be. Offer your sympathy and advice for next year to jmb@strikethree.com.

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