Prospect Report:
They All Left

David Cameron

After a pretty easy jaunt through the infield, now we hit the difficult rankings. Most other analysts choose to treat the outfield as one position. Personally, I don't think that does us much good, because left field is about as close to center field as catcher is to third base. Most left fielders can't play center field, just like most third basemen can't play catcher. Lumping them together diminishes the value of a true center fielder.

Unfortunately, that makes the left field list one of the hardest to do, because most major-league left fielders begin their careers at another position. I haven't found an effective way to project position changes, so the following is a list of players whose main position is currently left field. Other players on my subsequent lists may end up there eventually, but I've yet to see a good method that accurately determines who those players will be.

While a lot of other guys on the list are defensive liabilities, Chris Snelling is a true asset with the glove. Well, he was before he tore his ACL in July, anyway. He's not outright fast, but he's definitely quick and covers a lot of ground in the outfield. His small frame hides the fact that he has a strong and accurate arm. If he fully recovers from his injuries, he could be a gold-glove-quality left fielder who can handle center in a bind.

However, Snelling's best asset is still his bat. A pure line-drive hitter, he's got the makings of a batting champion. He mixes tremendous bat control with a level swing and can drive the ball well into the gaps. He's also a good, aggressive base runner. While he probably won't hit more than 20 home runs in any one season, Snelling has a chance to be an all-star and is clearly the class of the group.

Todd Linden got a bad reputation in college and it caused him to slide in the draft, but the Giants were only too happy to scoop him up. After a prolonged holdout cost him the chance to play in 2001, he went directly to AA to start his pro career. He had few problems with the Texas League and was promoted to AAA for the final month of the season. His power is still developing and he'll always be a better gap hitter, but he's capable of driving the ball well. He is willing to draw his fair share of walks and should have a quality on-base percentage. He's not much of an outfielder, but his bat makes up for it.

The Rangers continue to develop good young hitters, and Laynce Nix is no exception. Nix is a stronger version of Rusty Greer with a powerful swing that really puts a charge into the ball. He does everything better than average, which includes playing a solid left field. He's as well-rounded an outfielder as you'll find. He'll go into the 2003 season at the age of 22 and head to AA to establish himself as one of the best prospects in the game.

Jack Cust is definitely not well rounded. He's a hitter, plain and simple. He plays a mediocre-to-poor outfield, depending on whom you talk to. He doesn't run well, and won't be an asset unless he's in the batter's box. His high walk rate and terrific extra-base-hit numbers show why teams consider him a cleanup hitter in the making, but that might be a bit deceptive.

While strikeouts aren't bad in and of themselves, very few players have ever succeeded while striking out in the minors as often as Cust has. This could be a due to a flaw that will prevent him from reaching his perceived potential at the major-league level. Cust won't get opportunities unless he hits well, so he doesn't have the same slack as most prospects. He's going to have to make more contact or he just might end up with the minor-league slugger label.

The Yankees sent John-Ford Griffin to the A's in the Jeff Weaver three-way trade, and Griffin may have found a home. He's the prototypical Billy Beane player. He draws a lot of walks, hits a lot of line drives, and isn't much of a help on the bases or on defense. Griffin's left-handed swing is among the nicest in the game, but he doesn't generate much lift yet. He'll get on base, but isn't the typical run-producing left fielder. There has been some talk that he could move to first base, especially if the A's can't find a better option next year.

Also rumored to be leaving New York in trade was Juan Rivera, but he managed to hang around the Bronx this season. Rivera's power is his calling card, but he doesn't do much to help himself get on base. His defense is playable in right field, but he's better suited for left. He's not a high average hitter, so he's going to have to become more patient at the plate if he wants to hold down an everyday job. He's quite similar to Daryle Ward, but he's not the disaster with the glove that the Astros' slugger is.

Tampa Bay gets the first of their many outfielders on the list with Jonny Gomes. An 18th-round pick, he's slugged his way through the Appalachian and California Leagues. He's a powerful hitter with good power, though he's not likely to develop much more than he has already. He takes pitches, but perhaps takes too many. Like Cust, he strikes out at an obscene rate that doesn't bode well for his future. He's average with the glove, but his offense is where his real value lies. With the left field picture so crowded in Tampa Bay, he could find himself becoming trade bait if AA doesn't prove too tough a test.

I'm going to attempt to write up Will Smith without making any references to the movie star. The Marlins' prospect (not to be confused with the Red Sox outfielder, also with the same name, who also spent the season in the Florida State League) continued to hit well despite few exceptional physical skills. Like most Florida players, he needs to draw more walks, but he's young enough to improve. He'll take on AA next year at the age of 21, which is an impressive feat in itself.

I'm sure the legions of Xavier Nady fans who e-mailed me after I decided not to include him on the preseason Top 100 won't be too fond of this ranking, but I continue to be underwhelmed by Nady's bat. He had a very pedestrian season in AAA at the age of 23, and he's likely to spend 2003 there as well. Injuries have hampered his development, but he's yet to show any real knowledge of the strike zone and his power hasn't grown enough to overcome his other lacks. He's a liability with the glove, so he's going to have to hit a lot to play everyday, and I just don't see it coming.

The Marlins grabbed Jeremy Hermida 11th overall in the draft after most projected him as a top-five pick. He was acclaimed for having the most polished bat of any high-school hitter, although he struggled in his debut pro season. The conversion to wood isn't an easy one, and some terrific players have had poor starts, so I'm not worried. He has easy power and a good approach at the plate plus a strong throwing arm. His outfield routes need improvement, but that's common for a kid just out of high school. He's got middle of the lineup potential, but it's probably 5 years away.

about the author

David Cameron is currently working with Rand McNally to create outfield route maps for the fielding-challenged. Terrence Long may want to inquire at dac@strikethree.com.