Mild Card Matchup

Dave Paisley

I guess it was inevitable that some day the World Series would be contested between two wild card teams. And not only that, we have an all laid-back California matchup. Well, excluding those rally monkey shindigs, I guess. No hint of snow, freezing rain or any of that nastiness that can happen with October games in New York or say, Cincinnati.

But really, it’s not like the Angels and Giants are chump change here. The Angels finished a mere 4 games behind the Yankees and A’s and five games ahead of the Central Division champion Twins. Given their schedule, and the fact that a spread of five games is within random chance, they have nothing to be ashamed of.

As for the Giants, sure they had the worst record of the NL post-season qualifiers, but they finished six, three and two games worse than the Braves, Diamondbacks and cardinals respectively. With a hot finish, they were easily on a par with the rest as the season closed.

So now we have the Wild Card World Series, how do they match up?

Here’s a look at the starting lineup side by side:

Init	Last	Pos	R	HR	RBI	OPS	Init	Last	Pos	R	HR	RBI	OPS
B	Santiago	C	56	16	74	.765	B	Molina	C	34	5	47	.596
J	Snow	1B	47	6	53	.704	S	Spiezio	1B	80	12	82	.807
J	Kent	2B	102	37	108	.933	A	Kennedy	2B	65	7	52	.794
D	Bell	3B	82	20	73	.762	T	Glaus	3B	99	30	111	.805
R	Aurilia	SS	76	15	61	.718	D	Eckstein	SS	107	8	63	.751
B	Bonds	LF	117	46	110	1.381	G	Anderson	LF	93	29	123	.871
K	Lofton	CF	30	3	9	.759	D	Erstad	CF	99	10	75	.702
R	Sanders	RF	75	23	85	.779	T	Salmon	RF	84	22	88	.883
							B	Fullmer	DH	75	19	59	.888

At catcher, Santiago is better than Molina even on off day. Given Benito’s major resurgence here in the late going with the Giants, the Giants have a big edge. At first, the Angels have a solid edge with Spiezio over Snow. We continue the wild oscillation by seeing that the Giants have a huge edge at second, Kennedy’s three homer game in the clincher with the Twins notwithstanding. The edge swings back to the Angels at third, with Troy Glaus over David Bell. Any time a player gets called gritty and scrappy you just know he’s not that good. And David Bell is definitely gritty and scrappy.

At short, it looks like a wash, but Rich Aurilia seems to have found last season’s swing here in the post-season, and that would provide the Giants with an edge here. In the outfield, Anderson is no match for Barry Bonds, but then who is? Bonds single-handedly raises the team OPS by about a hundred points. Lofton vs. Erstad is pretty much a wash, while Tim Salmon is way better than Reggie Sanders if he stays in the lineup.

Overall, I’d say that without Bonds, the offenses are about even. With him, there’s a huge edge to the Giants. A lot will hinge on how successfully the Angels pitch around him.

One key advantage for the Angels in their home games is that they have Brad Fullmer and Shawn Wooten to DH, while the Giants bench is devoid of sluggers. A quick glance down the benches here shows that:

Init	Last	Pos	R	HR	RBI	OPS	Init	Last	Pos	R	HR	RBI	OPS
Y	Torrealba	C	17	2	14	.752	S	Wooten	C	13	3	19	.773
R	Martinez	IF	26	4	25	.749	J	Molina	C	5	0	5	.626
P	Feliz	IF	14	2	13	.617	B	Gil	IF	11	3	20	.738
T	Shinjo	OF	42	9	37	.664	C	Figgins	IF	6	0	1	.417
T	Goodwin	OF	23	1	17	.659	O	Palmeiro	OF	35	0	31	.722
S	Dunston	OF	7	1	9	.536	A	Ochoa	OF	8	2	10	.850

With Torrealba the big bat off the bench for the Giants, they’re in trouble late if they need help. The Angels meanwhile have the aforementioned Wooten, as well as Alex Ochoa, Orlando Palmeiro and Benji Gil. Huge edge to the Angles here.

Over on the mound, here are the starting pitchers, presuming the teams stay with the rotations they’ve used so far in the playoffs:

Init	Last	W	L	S	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	HR	BB	K	WHIP
J	Washburn	18	6	0	3.15	32	32	1	0	206	19	59	139	1.175
R	Ortiz	14	10	0	3.61	33	33	2	0	214.1	15	94	137	1.331
K	Appier	14	12	0	3.92	32	32	0	0	188.1	23	64	132	1.356
J	Schmidt	13	8	0	3.45	29	29	2	2	185.1	15	73	196	1.194
R	Ortiz	15	9	0	3.77	32	32	4	1	217.1	40	68	162	1.179
K	Rueter	14	8	0	3.23	33	33	0	0	203.2	22	54	76	1.270
J	Lackey	9	4	0	3.66	18	18	1	0	108.1	10	33	69	1.351
L	Hernandez	12	16	0	4.38	33	33	5	3	216.0	19	71	134	1.407

Washburn-Russ Ortiz is a good-looking matchup, with Washburn being the better pitcher overall. Appier-Schmidt tips the other way, especially after Schmidt’s dominating performance against the Cardinals. Ramon Ortiz-Rueter is a solid tip to the Angels, ERA be damned, while Lackey-Hernandez is close to even.

So I’d give a slight edge to the Angels in the starting pitching department.

One other critical area is in the closer role, and these teams feature two of the best. Here are Percival and Nen side by side:

Init	Last	W	L	S	ERA	G	IP	HR	BB	K	HB	WP	WHIP
T	Percival	4	1	40	1.92	58	56.1	5	25	68	0	5	1.123
R	Nen	6	2	43	2.20	68	73.2	2	20	81	1	1	1.148

Pretty comparable except for Nen’s higher workload. One potential difference could be Percival’s higher likelihood of wild pitches. In a close game late, both of these guys can shut the door, though.

The only remaining matchup is that of the bullpens:

/tr>

Init	Last	Pos	W	L	S	ERA	G	IP	HR	BB	K	WHIP
F	Rodriguez	RP	0	0	0	0.00	5	5.2	0	2	13	.962
T	Worrell	RP	8	2	0	2.25	80	72.0	3	30	55	1.181
B	Donnelly	RP	1	1	1	2.17	46	49.2	2	19	54	1.037
F	Rodriguez	RP	8	6	0	4.17	71	69.0	5	29	58	1.188
S	Shields	RP	5	3	0	2.20	29	49	4	21	30	1.061
C	Zerbe	RP	2	0	0	3.04	50	56.1	3	21	26	1.301
B	Weber	RP	7	2	7	2.54	63	78	4	22	43	1.179
A	Fultz	RP	2	2	0	4.79	43	41.1	4	19	31	1.606

Francisco Rodriguez has been lights out in his short major league career to date, but he could easily be the next Byung Hyun Kim. He should be fine in the setup role, though. He and Donnelly are a pretty good match for Felix Rodriguez and Tim Worrell. After that, though, the Angels pen is deeper, with Shields and Weber performing much better than Zerbe and Fultz.

So, to summarize:

Starting offense: edge to Giants

Bench: edge to Angels

Starting pitching: Slight edge to Angels

Bullpen: Slight edge to Angels because of depth

I expect this to go at least six games, and for the Angels to win eventually. There, the jinx is in...

about the author

Got predictions for the World Series? Send your entry to Dave Paisley along with three Rice Krispie(tm) boxtops to :drdjp@strikethree.com.