Staff Infection II: Hitting beats Pitching

Dave Paisley

A week ago the playoffs started with a ban, then another, then another. I noted after six games that the scoring was averaging close to 13 runs a game. Well, the division series all ended with an average of almost 11. Other than that 3-1 thriller that decided the Braves-Giants series and the 2-1 Cardinals victory over the D’backs in game 2 of their series, there was hardly a pitching duel in sight.

By series, it went like this:

Angels-Yankees: 14 runs per game (ouch!)

Twins-A’s: 10.6 runs per game (not much better)

Giants-Braves: 10 runs per game

Cards-D’backs: 8.7 runs per game (but only because of weak Arizona offense)

The NL games were slightly lower scoring, as one might expect due to the pitcher hitting deal, but not by much.

And just when you think you’ve finally found a pitcher who can really nail it down in the post-season, like, say Matt Morris, he goes and implodes against the Giants in game on eof the NLCS. Conversely (nothing to do with shoes, by the way) Joe Mays managed to turn in a nice performance in the opening game of the ALCS after getting shelled in his only start of the Division Series.

Now that Minnesota has lost a home game, this series gets pretty interesting. Game 3 will feature Anaheim ace Jarrod Washburn at home against the Twins erstwhile ace Eric Milton. Milton was impressive in game 4 of the Division Series. And by impressive I mean he pitched well and took advantage of some eminently predictable brutal defense by the A’s. Boy genius Billy Beane can apparently build good teams, but has yet to master the art of getting guys who can field the ball routinely. Scott Hatteberg filled the Jason Giambi defensive goat role quite well it seems.

The Twins could have moved Brad Radke up a day and gone with him for game three, but to be honest, there’s really not that much to gain either way. It does mean that a game seven would come down to Milton rather than Radke. If I’d been in charge, I would have gone with Milton in game 2 on three days rest, Radke in game 3 on a normal four days rest and Reed for game 4. But hey, Ron Gardenhire never called, so too bad for him.

Washburn/Milton will be a toss up, while game 4, Lackey/Radke favors the Twins. The rematch of Appier/Mays is a tossup, as both Mays and Appier could blow up quickly. If I were the Twins I wouldn’t want to be coming home down 3-2 with Ortiz/Reed in game 6, and Washburn/Milton in game 7. It would tough to win both of those.

At this stage, I can’t see a clear favorite, but the Angels hitting luck surely has to come to an end somewhere.

Over in the NL, the Giants are riding high after beating up on the Cards’ ace, Matt Morris. Of course, it’s not like Kirk Rueter, with his 12+ post-season ERA was anything spectacular, but it was enough. The deck is somewhat stacked against the Giants, though, in the starting pitching department, as their ace, Russ Ortiz, will only go in game 4 unless Dusty Baker does some creative juggling. Game 2 with Schmidt/Williams is a crapshoot, given Woody Williams muscle problem. If Williams flames out and the Giants win, they’ll only need Ortiz to win game 4 against the shaky Andy Benes to have an great shot at ending the series earlier rather than later. If Livan Hernandez can beat Chuck Finley in game 3, so much the better. Of course, how much longer can Hernandez get lucky in the post-season?

Speaking of lucky, who would have thought Benito Santiago, he who could barely break a .700 OPS the last few years, would be the darling of San Francisco in October? When the Giants picked him up and stuck him in the batting order behind Barry Bonds, I can’t think of single souls other than Dusty Baker who thought it was a good idea. And yet here we are, with the Giants having taken flight since that move, sitting pretty in the catbird seat. Sometimes you just have to throw up your hands and acknowledge that not everything in the universe makes sense.

So from here, where do we go? I’m guessing Twins in seven and Giants in six, with no great emotional investment in either. I’m just glad that the Yankees are gone...

about the author

Got predictions for the playoffs? (*) Send your entry to Dave Paisley along with three Cornflake(tm) boxtops to :drdjp@strikethree.com. (*) Shoeless Joe Jackson excluded.