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Prospect Report:
Short, Short Men
David Cameron
If there is one thing certain about this week's list, it's that I am slighting a lot of really good players. Shortstop is hands-down the deepest position in the minors. A lot of the players here won't stick at shortstop, but the ability to play there at a young age is often a sign of good athleticism, and that translates well to other skills. Just because your favorite prospect does not appear below does not mean he isn't a talented player or that I don't like him.
Mark Shapiro was roasted in the press for trading Bartolo Colon for three minor-leaguers, but those same writers will be hailing Brandon Phillips next year. He's got a potent bat, and he's not afraid to tell you about it. One of the most confident players in the minors, Phillips is a tremendous hitter with legitimate 30-30 potential. He just turned 21 this season and has shown some knowledge of the strike zone, so there is every reason to believe he'll become an all-star offensive player. His defense is better than advertised, and he'll take over shortstop when Omar Vizquel makes room on the left side of the infield.
No doubt you've heard of Jose Reyes by now. The Mets have already anointed him as Rey Ordonez's replacement, and winning the Futures Game MVP got him a good amount of attention. Reyes is a classic run 'n' field shortstop with great speed and a terrific arm, but his bat is what makes him a top-notch prospect. He's shown well above-average power for his age and has 50-double potential at the major-league level. He might not be a big-time slugger, but he's not a singles hitter either. He could struggle next year if the Mets attempt to push him too quickly.
Wilson Betemit was getting the Jose Reyes treatment last year after a sparkling batting average in AA. Unfortunately for the Braves, Betemit's questionable work ethic, injuries, and lack of strike-zone judgment led to a terrible year in AAA. His defense has always been suspect, and it eroded this year. He's almost certain to move to third base. However, his power should allow him to be useful there, provided his plate discipline improves. Betemit has as much potential as anyone on this list, but he's also a risk to let it go unused.
The Braves follow up with another hitter posing as a shortstop. Kelly Johnson has one of the nicest left-handed swings in the game and had a good year in high-A as a teenager. The pitchers' park in Myrtle Beach deflated his numbers, but he swung the bat well after a slow start. He'll provide enough offense to play anywhere, and his defense will likely force him to left field or first base. He could explode in AA next year.
The Tigers gave Ramon Santiago a look in the majors, but Omar Infante is the future at shortstop in Detroit. A slick fielder who has good instincts and soft hands, Infante is a better hitter than most give him credit for. He can spray the ball to all fields and has emerging gap power. He's got a good approach at the plate, but needs to overcome the Tigers' aggressive philosophies. He's the best defensive player on this list and has a chance to contribute with the bat as well.
If people believed Jose Lopez was really 18 years of age, he'd be one of the top few prospects in the game. He battered Cal League pitching to the tune of a .324 batting average and showed gap power and good speed. His defense has always been his calling card, and he'll definitely stick at shortstop as long as he plays. He's tough to project because of the questionable age, but he should be a quality fielder with some pop, even if he doesn't get a whole lot better.
If you walk down any street in Durham, you're likely to trip over some Hanley Ramirez propaganda. For a guy who hasn't set foot in full-season ball yet, he's generating a ridiculous amount of hype. Granted, switch-hitting 18-year-olds who can really hit, draw walks, and play shortstop aren't in great abundance, so there are reasons for the excitement. However, rookie ball gives us very little insight into Ramirez's ability at the plate. Until we see how well he can hit some advanced pitchers, it's hard to project him as a superstar. There is just too much about him we can't know yet.
The Phillies could face an interesting dilemma in a couple of years if Andy Machado continues to develop. He's very similar to current all-star Philadelphia shortstop Jimmy Rollins, except he's a better defensive player. Machado may not show Rollins' power, but he's every bit as fast and is willing to draw more walks. Machado is more a classic shortstop, while Rollins is a part of the new breed of offensive-minded power hitters. After a decent year in AA, Machado isn't very far off, so the Phillies better start considering their options and grooming one of them to play second base.
The Padres took Khalil Greene with their first-round pick after watching him tear the NCAA apart on his way to becoming the Golden Spikes Award winner. Greene isn't the pure athlete that most shortstops are, but he's got baseball skills that compensate well. The Padres will give him every chance to stay at shortstop and attempt to get his bat in the lineup quickly. Greene has a slashing style at the plate with good bat speed and some above-average juice. He'll get on base and can take second once he's there. If he can handle shortstop, he could be an all-star.
Like almost all Brewers prospects, J.J. Hardy was rushed through the system and struggled mightily at AA. 19 years old and just over a year out of high school, Milwaukee decided Hardy should get the bump from high-A despite mediocre numbers for High Desert. Although he was overmatched by pitchers he shouldn't have been facing, Hardy remains a solid bet for the future. He's got a live stick that can generate real power and a frame to handle more strength as he grows. Unfortunately, the Brewers haven't developed a real player in years, so Hardy might be better off failing in Milwaukee and moving on to an organization that can develop talent.
Apologies to Russ Adams, Jose Castillo, Bobby Crosby, Joel Guzman, and Luis Montanez, who all would have easily made last week's list.
| about the author |
David Cameron has a live stick too, and frankly we're tired of hearing about it. Offer him some steroids or something at dac@strikethree.com.
