Plentiful Post-Season Predictions

Jason Michael Barker

After pitchers and catchers reporting, spring training, six months of baseball, an All-Star Game which ended in a tie, endless bemoaning of the labor situation and a miraculous, nearly last-minute agreement between the players and owners, Major League Baseball's second season is upon us. And for the first time in three years, I don't have to pretend to distance myself from my Seattle bias when making predictions.

Rather than bore you with pleasantries, let's get right to the predictions...

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Fans in St. Louis certainly still remember last year, when the Diamondbacks knocked off the Cardinals in five games. Arizona has made only a few changes from last season -- that's what happens when you win the World Series -- while the Cardinals added Tino Martinez and Jason Isringhausen this winter, then Chuck Finley and Scott Rolen during the season in an attempt to get out of the first round. The biggest change facing the D'Backs is the loss of Luis Gonzalez, which unfortunately for them happened too late for a counter-measure.

Everyone talks about the dominance of Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling when discussing this series, and rightfully so, but what's often overlooked is Arizona's offense, which ranked a respectable sixth in the majors in runs scored but was first in drawing walks. The Cardinals, on the other hand, ranked 17th, while their pitchers ranked 14th in walks allowed (Arizona's pitchers were second-best). Add it all up and that's a huge advantage for Arizona, when the two teams are relatively evenly matched elsewhere.

Now on to Johnson and Schilling, who thanks to convenient scheduling -- days off after each of the first two games -- should each be able to make two starts in this series if necessary. Both pitchers are seemingly immune to the problems other starters face when given a similar workload of innings and pitches, and there's no reason to believe Bob Brenly will go away from what won him the World Series last season. The Cardinals have had another nice season, but once again they were matched up with the wrong team in the first round. Arizona in four.

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves

This series comes down to one thing -- Atlanta's pitching versus Barry Lamar Bonds in a winner-take-all, no-holds-barred, steel cage match. Too dramatic? Maybe so, but is there anything more interesting this post-season than to watch the way Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine will go about pitching to Bonds? Unlike in past years, when he struggled in the playoffs, Bonds is used to being incredibly selective at the plate thanks to getting very few pitches to hit over the past two seasons. He should be up to the challenge.

The side of this series that isn't being talked about is Atlanta's offense against San Francisco's pitching, because those are seen as each club's weakness. Everybody knows the Braves have struggled to score runs this season, but outside of Bonds the Giants weren't that great of an offensive club this year either, as their 783 runs scored ranked just 11th in MLB. On the flipside, while the Braves led the majors with a 3.13 ERA, San Francisco's none-too-shabby 3.54 mark was good for second. Atlanta's offense really was anemic, however.

In what has to be the most difficult post-season series to call, I'm going with the Giants in five hard-fought games. Their pitching is better than people give it credit for, and the Braves are going to have serious problems scoring runs unless Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones and Gary Sheffield all get hot at the same time. I also see San Francisco's secondary players, specifically Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders, as much more likely to do damage than the likes of Vinny Castilla, Julio Franco and Javy Lopez.

Anaheim Angels vs. New York Yankees

I don't generally give much credence to things like "experience" when it comes to the post-season, but if ever there was a series where that sort of thing could come into play, it's here. The Angels haven't been to the playoffs in 16 years and field a roster almost completely devoid of post-season experience. The Yankees, on the other hand... well, I don't have to tell you about them, do I?

Frankly, I can see this series going the way of those Yankees-Rangers series of 1996, 1998 and 1999, when the Rangers managed just one win in ten games and couldn't score runs to save their lives. Those weren't poor offensive clubs, either, featuring the likes of Rafael Palmeiro, Juan Gonzalez, Pudge Rodriguez, Will Clark and Rusty Greer, as well as complimentary players such as Todd Zeile, Tom Goodwin, Lee Stevens and Mark McLemore. In other words, they were very good offensive teams who were completely shut down in the playoffs.

While it's true that New York's pitching isn't quite what it used to be, the 2002 Angels are a far cry from those late-90s Rangers teams in terms of offensive prowess as well. The Yankees also have one of their best offensive clubs in recent memory, featuring a balanced attack from top to bottom and nine players with at least ten homers. That sort of power, coupled with solid starting pitching, can win you a short series in a hurry. New York in four.

Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland Athletics

ESPN is calling this the battle of the little payrolls, but to me it's more of a battle between two well-run franchises who have built successful teams through their farm systems. Almost all of Oakland's key players were home grown, while Minnesota's were either developed from within or traded for and then developed. When you consider how much money some other non-playoff teams spent, what the Twins and A's have done over the past couple of years has been tremendous.

That said, I think it's pretty clear which side has more talent in this series. The A's scored more runs despite playing in a pretty good pitcher's park, hit 38 homers and drew 137 more walks. On the pitching side of things, they posted an ERA about half a run lower and also allowed 50 fewer homers. For their part, the Twins allowed the eighth-most homers in baseball, which doesn't bode well given Oakland's longball tendencies. If there's one positive here, it's that Minnesota pitchers don't walk many hitters.

The A's, with lefties Barry Zito and Mark Mulder against a Twins team which struggled mightily against left-handed starters, should easily be able to thwart an offensive attack which doesn't get nearly enough in the way of walks or homers. That Tim Hudson, though right-handed, is no slouch either. I don't expect the A's to score a ton of runs against the Twins and their extremely good bullpen, but what runs they do score should be enough to make this a relatively quick series. Oakland in three.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker doesn't know what to do with himself these days, now that his Seattle Mariners aren't in the post-season. Suggest he take up needlepoint, the big baby, when you write jmb@strikethree.com.

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