Baseballhead:
Dubious Playoff Prognostications

Michael Cox

Ah, turnin' to the ol' Baseballhead for your entertainment when there's no game on, eh? Well, er, okay.

The season is over, the playoff matchups set (although I for one was hoping to see a Yankees-D-Rays contest today) and it's time to bid aloha to 22 teams. Tough luck, Mariners. See ya next year (as usual), Cubs. Fire someone and come back in April, Dodgers. Gee, Brewers, I thought you left in June.

With the postseason, of course, comes the annual round of postseason predictions, wherein the same batch of folks who told you to bank on the Phillies' continued resurgence now babble about how Barry Bonds can't play in October. (Note that these folks have stopped mentioning Randy Johnson in the same breath.)

We're going to change all that. This edition of Baseballhead marks our first series of Dubious Playoff Prognostications, based on the idea that a completely ill-researched batch of wild guesses is every bit as good as Tim Kurkjian's most thoughtful opinions. With that, we begin:

Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants

The team who can't seem to win a World Series meets the team who can't seem to get out of the first round. The team with the solid gold rotation vs. the team held together with duct tape and staples. The team with the best hitter in baseball vs. the team with Vinny Castilla. By rights, instead of one team advancing to the NLCS, flesh-eating locusts should descend on Turner Field and put everyone out of their misery.

But in all likelihood the series will be played until a winner is declared, and that winner will be the team with the pluckiest role-players. I'm talking about those "team players" who "hustle" and "inspire" the club by "doing the little things." Sure, Barry Bonds can get on base 60 percent of the time he shows up at the plate, but can he leg out that infield grounder? Not with those hammies, bucko.

Fortunately for Barry, the Giants lead the majors in feisty lineup-fillers. David Bell! Kenny Lofton! Benito Santiago! Rich Aurilia! J.T. Freakin' Snow! In fact, it could be said that the San Francisco lineup consists of Bonds, Kent, five plucky scrubs and Reggie Sanders. Meanwhile, in the Atlanta dugout, Castilla, Keith Lockhart and Javy Lopez are just scrubs.

Victor: Giants in five, including at least one ninth-inning winning run scored by David Bell.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals

For most of this season, D-Back fans would assess their team's World Championship repeat chances thusly: "Hey, they've got Johnson and Schilling, and, er, Luis Gonzalez!" Now with Gonzo injured D-Back fans stammer and hope no one notices Tony Womack. Meanwhile, the Cards upgraded their already decent offense with one Scott Rolen. (The Phillies had hoped for another Scott Rolen, but unfortunately the cloning was handled by the Veterans Stadium food vendor and they ended up with a perfect copy of Ricky Ledee.)

Still, the Johnson/Schilling axis is so potent that the Arizona offense may have to scrape up a mere one or two runs per game. In fact, were fractional runs allowed in MLB, the D-Back lineup likely need produce a paltry 0.57 runs per "Big Two" start.

In a curious fluke of scheduling, this is the only Division Series with two days off, so Johnson can either pitch Game Four on regular rest, or in a pinch even Game Three on four days' rest. Schilling could pitch both games Two and Five. This leaves a mere single DS game to be pitched by someone who is not Johnson or Schilling, and Bob Brenly may even try to get them to pitch in Game Three if their arms are not gangrenous.

On the other hand, to maximize his already deft handling of the Cards' pitching staff, the stat-conscious Tony La Russa has reportedly rented the Priceline.com supercomputer. The Cards have also beaten Schilling both times they faced him this year -- something you're certain to hear repeated over and over again in the next few days.

Victor: D-Backs, in whatever number of games makes two Randy Johnson starts.

New York Yankees vs. Anaheim Angels

To the casual observer, this series would be a no-contest. The Yankees rolled through the season and basically bought up whatever starting pitchers happened to be available, so if for example Andy Pettitte gets shelled in the first inning, blammo! Jeff Weaver! Or perhaps David Wells has a touch of gastritis -- just place a call to El Duque, and Bob's yer uncle!

Meanwhile, the Angels stumbled hard out of the gate, mounted a monumental run mid-season, then had a magic number of 1 for the better part of a week. The source of their strength? David Eckstein. I said David Eckstein. Think of him as the reincarnation of Gary DiSarcina, but with a higher on-base percentage.

But there are other forces at work here. Supernatural forces. In a word, ghosts. You've heard of them. They're apparently all over Yankee Stadium -- that's not the Bleacher Creatures spilling beer on Tim Salmon, it's Lou Gehrig. They whisper in Derek Jeter's ear: "Play out of position, so you can catch the incredibly bad relay throw!" And those ghosts were damn fine ballplayers, every one. (How come no one ever mentions the ghost of Steve Trout?)

Aha! But the Halos have ghosts of their own! There's even a movie about them! And unlike those plain old Yankee ballplaying ghosts, the Anaheim ghosts can fly and lift fielders high off the ground to catch certain homers! One even kinda looks like the burnout guy from "Taxi." And those ghosts are portable, whereas the Yankee ghosts must remain in the Bronx, possibly as some sort of ghost punishment.

Victor: Angels, via mysterious circumstances.

Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins

This is the Baseballhead Super Choice Series to Watch in the first round of playoffs. Two good teams, both at full strength. Almost equal with the wood. Oakland with the better rotation, Minnesota with the superior bullpen. The surprising Scott Hatteburg vs. the unspellable Doug Mientkiewicz. The grace of Torii Hunter vs. the, ah, un-grace of Terrence Long.

The A's spent the season battling their way to the top of the toughest division in baseball. The Twins got lots of experience beating on crappy teams in the AL Central. Looks like a wash, right?

This series is going to come down to the team with the most inhospitable venue. First, you have the Network Associates Coliseum, which Al Davis turned from a wonderful ballpark to a sinkhole, with a gigantic football grandstand looming where bleachers and trees once used to flourish. And in that football grandstand, anywhere from several to dozens of guys dress funny and beat on drums, like the bastard offspring of Raider fans and the guy in the Jacobs Field bleachers.

Oh but then there's the Metrodome, whose mere mention strikes fear in the hearts of ballplayers. White roof, bad turf, outfield wall made of plastic, you've heard it all before. It's why the Twins were about to be contracted. And the fans, like Oakland's, are a special breed. Normally utterly apathetic to the usual floundering of their local team, let the club have a huge season and suddenly the chairs are filled with screaming maniacs. I mean, they throw hot dogs here, for Pete's sake! And you know the Homer Hankies will be back.

Victor: Minnesota, after Eric Chavez is brained by a pop-up he loses in the Teflon roof.

about the author

Michael Cox is haunted by the ghost of Lenny Dykstra. Explain that it's actually the live Lenny Dykstra at mc@strikethree.com.