Prospect Report:
If At First

David Cameron

The youngsters who play first base in the minor leagues aren't necessarily whom you'd expect, given the offensive demands of the position at the major-league level. Players who are confined to first base this early in their career often aren't the best of athletes and will have to compete with more talented players who shift to first later in their careers. First-base prospects have one of the worst success rates at the major-league level; don't expect all the players below to become top-notch sluggers.

The Twins' Justin Morneau spent nearly the entire season on the Prospect Ten and is an easy pick for the top player at this position. While his numbers for AA New Britain aren't overwhelming, they are solid for a player who turned 21 this year. He struggled through some early-season injuries which affected his power, but he surged through the last part of the season. He has one of the best swings in the minors and has little problems driving the ball to all fields. He really just needs experience, but he has all the makings of a number-three hitter.

The only person who even challenges Morneau for the top spot is Casey Kotchman. A first-round pick by the Angels in 2001, he's one of the most polished high-school hitters you'll ever see. He completely controls the strike zone and will not get himself out. Despite only hitting five home runs during the season, he showed tremendous future power. Over 40 percent of his hits went for extra bases, and Kotchman should have little trouble knocking the ball out of the park 30 times a year. Not only will he be a terrific offensive player, but he's also one of the best fielding first basemen you'll ever see. Kotchman is the complete package and still isn't even out of his teenage years.

Hee Seop Choi has been the Cubs' first baseman of the future for three years. 2003 should be his first opportunity to live up to the label. He excites scouts with his pull power, though he hasn't translated it as well on the field. He's probably not going to be a great average hitter, so his value will come from drawing walks and launching the three-run homer. He should do enough of both to remain a valuable player, especially in his pre-arbitration years. However, he doesn't possess the all around abilities to be a superstar. He should be a nice player, but you don't build a ball club around Hee Seop Choi.

The Brewers have a glut of first basemen, but Brad Nelson still manages to stand out from the crowd. A fourth-round pick in 2001, he's developed into one of the premier sluggers in the game. He has as much raw power as anybody I saw this year. Not only can he turn on pitches, but also he can drive the ball the opposite way with ease. His swing is pretty sound and he's balanced at the plate. He simply lacks experience, but that will come with age.

Despite playing in the Midwest League at age 19, Nelson still was among the league leaders in extra-base hits. He'll need to develop more patience as he moves up the ladder, but he's got all-star abilities and could be a true cleanup hitter in three years.

The Marlins lead off with a pair of players in the next two positions. Adrian Gonzalez, the number one overall pick in 2000, has been compared to players like Mark Grace and John Olerud. He has a compact left-handed swing but only gap power and doesn't project as a big-time power threat. He hasn't developed into an on-base machine yet either, but he is willing to take a walk. He's a solid defensive player, but his bat might not be more than average at the next level.

Jason Stokes is quite different. A right-handed slugger, he had more home runs than doubles, which is quite rare in the minors. His power is his strength, but it isn't strong enough to carry Stokes. He's going to have to round out his game and become an all around player. He's not the athlete that Gonzalez is, and another position isn't likely. Despite his huge numbers for Kane County, he's got some adjustments to make. Don't expect a repeat performance of his 2002 season.

The Rangers continue to develop first basemen. Travis Hafner is the new name, and very few people question his abilities at the plate. While he's 25 years old and not getting any younger, he's as polished as anybody who spent the year in the minors. He controls the strike zone and has more power than his numbers this year showed. He could be a solid contributor for several years, though probably not an all-star. Defensively, he's limited to first or DH, and that may keep him from getting a real shot.

I wrote up Scott Thorman earlier in the year, and he impressed me enough to get onto this list. He has legitimate pull-power that should translate well to the majors. His offense has room to grow, but he's still young and isn't as experienced as most players his age. The Braves should be pleased if he can hold his own in 2003 at a tough Myrtle Beach park.

There are few things as challenging as writing an original thought on Prince Fielder. He's Cecil's kid, he's huge, and he can hit the cover off the baseball. This has all been well covered. So, I'll take the Bill James-style pass on this one. If you want to know anything more about Fielder, check out brewerfan.net, where all 34 diehard fans of the Brewers hang out.

I'm not one of Eric Munson's bigger fans, so his placement here should tell you something about the depth of prospects here. Drafted as a slugging catcher, he's now a slugging first baseman who has back problems and doesn't make much contact. A torrid second half helped revive his career, but with Carlos Pena in Detroit, he's going to be hard pressed to get a lot of ABs. Munson might turn into a Brian Daubauch type, but that is certainly not what the Tigers envisioned when they selected him third overall in 1999.

about the author

David Cameron recently discovered that he's about the same size as Prince Fielder's average dinner entree. Suggest David not stand anywhere near the buffet table at dac@strikethree.com.