Prospect Report:
Catching Hell

David Cameron

Welcome to the offseason. There are but a handful of minor-league games still being played, and most of them don't include the organizations' best talents. With little actually going on, we will occupy ourselves with the favorite vice of prospectors everywhere: The List.

This week kicks off the beginning of my positional rankings. We should cover just about every important name in the land over the next thirteen weeks, which will lead up to the 2003 Top 100 in the spring. The lists themselves will be found over at the Prospect Ten, with this column providing you with corresponding analysis of each player. For no particular reason, we start behind the plate with the men who don the tools of ignorance.

I've given Victor Martinez quite a bit of positive press over the past few weeks, culminating in his being named the 2003 Prospect of the Year. While he's not a likely franchise player, you'd be hard pressed to find a prospect who is closer to helping his team win than Martinez. There is very little projection needed and he's likely to be an asset both at the plate and behind it. His arm strength is questioned by some, but his athletic footwork and solid receiving skills should compensate quite well. He may struggle making the adjustment to the majors initially, but he should be a very productive player in the big leagues for several years.

You'll probably see Joe Mauer at the top of most of these lists. Not too many people will disagree that he's the most talented catcher not currently in the major leagues. He had a fantastic season in the Midwest League, especially for a teenage catcher. The power is expected to develop and few people are worried about his bat. If he follows a normal development curve, he'll be an all-star. However, he's yet to see even high-A pitching and the tale of high-school catchers is not a very friendly one. Mauer has a lot of potential, but he's got several years of bus rides in front of him. It is quite likely that he'll find a few bumps in the road.

The Mets have begun the search for Mike Piazza's replacement and may not have to look much further than young Australian Justin Huber. While nobody can expect another catcher to hit like Piazza did, Huber profiles as a similar type of player. His bat is going to be where his value lies, and there's quite a bit of talent there. He has a powerful stroke that could generate 30 home runs a year. His arm and footwork aren't great and probably won't get better, so the Mets will have to decide if they want another offense-first catcher. If Huber continues to hit, they'd be wise to overlook his defensive shortcomings.

John Buck had a bit of a disappointing season at AA Round Rock, but he still profiles as a solid all-around backstop. He's not a slugger, but he's got some pop in his bat and should be capable of slugging .450 in the future. His walk rate will go a long way towards determining his value, as he probably won't hit more than .280 against big-league pitching. The Astros like his work behind the plate and are willing to sacrifice a few hits for a quality defensive catcher. Buck probably won't be a star, but he has a chance to be an average major-league catcher, and those are a lot harder to find than most people realize.

When the Angels tabbed Jeff Mathis in the supplemental first round in 2000, there were a lot of eyebrows raised. He was viewed as a defensive catcher with a questionable bat, but has quieted a lot of his critics with a big season in the Midwest League. He showed off quite a bit of power for a teenage catcher, launching 54 extra-base hits. Mathis is more likely a doubles hitter than a pure slugger, but his bat has a chance to contribute. He could get to the majors based on his work behind the plate, but he's got the ability to contribute with the stick as well.

There are a wide range of opinions on Kelly Shoppach and very little middle ground. Shoppach brings a legitimate defensive package to the table and could become the best defensive catcher of any player on this list. His arm is a legitimate major-league weapon and he'll definitely impress with his work behind the dish. His bat isn't as certain, but he has shown promise. He stroked 46 extra-base hits in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League this year, but also struck out an alarming 112 times. He should get to the majors based on his glovework, but his bat will determine how valuable he'll be.

People are injuring themselves jumping off the Ryan Christianson bandwagon, but I think they're a bit premature. He had a miserable start to the season in AA San Antonio and missed several months due to injuries, but he's still quite young and has an outstanding physical package. He has yet to make consistent contact at the plate, but his power is legitimate. If he can become more selective at the plate and put the ball in play more often, he'll be a real threat with the bat. Defensively, he's well above average with a plus arm and solid footwork. He's still got work to do, but he's probably more talented than anyone on this list outside of Joe Mauer.

The Dodgers have to be pleased with the improvement Koyie Hill has made since his conversion from third base after being drafted out of college. Hill had a fine season in the Southern League and was one of the league leaders in on-base percentage. He's not a big power guy, but has the ability to make solid contact. He could hit .300 in the majors, which would make him a millionaire quickly. His defense is improving, though he still needs some refinement. He's got the abilities to be a quality player behind the plate and experience will only help him.

Corky Miller is not your average prospect, but you'd expect that with a name like Corky. He's already 26, so he's not likely to get a whole lot better than he is right now. When he wasn't caddying for Jason LaRue in Cincinnati, he only hit .231 for AAA Louisville. However, he could be a real contributor at the plate and has a big time arm. He developed later with the bat than most players, but he's got gap power and a good knowledge of the strike zone.

Miller might not hit for a high average, but he's the type of player the Oakland A's have been turning into quality players for the past several years. The Reds don't look inclined to give him a full-time job, so he might have to switch organizations. Miller could be an upgrade for five or ten major league teams next year and deserves an opportunity.

A year ago, the Blue Jays talked up catching prospects Joe Lawrence, Josh Phelps, and Jayson Werth. Lawrence is now a second baseman, Phelps is a designated hitter, and Werth is an outfielder. I wouldn't worry about Kevin Cash moving from behind the plate anytime soon, though. His defense has always been considered outstanding, but his offense took a step forward in AA this year.

He's shown legitimate power in both AA and AAA, but he really struggled making contact after the promotion. There is talk that his bat is too slow to catch up to quality fastballs and that he's mostly a mistake hitter. Luckily for Cash, there are quite a few mistake-throwing soft-tossers in the majors, so he has a chance. The Blue Jays are likely to give Cash a chance to make the 2003 club out of Spring Training, so we should see his future soon enough.

The Pirates had a pair of catchers who would have been considered for the list had they not sustained season-ending injuries. Ryan Doumit has passed the flea-bittenJ.R. House on Pittsburgh's depth chart, though both have some work to do and the missed development time has hurt them. Other names to keep an eye on include Houston's Hector Gimenez, the White Sox' Miguel Olivo, and Josh Bard from the Cleveland Indians.

about the author

David Cameron plans to spend the offseason making Strat-O-Matic cards for the entire Carolina League. Suggest a Crash Davis card at dac@strikethree.com.