Dave Paisley

Three weeks to go and surprisingly, the playoff picture is slowly clearing, with the exception being the National League wild card berth.

The AL is all but done at this point, with Oakland and Anaheim going to the whip down the stretch and Seattle and Boston just, well, looking whipped. The only excitement is which one of Oakland and Anaheim will visit the Yankees in the first round, and which will host Minnesota. This may appear to be prematurely writing off Boston and Seattle, but neither of those teams is showing anything remotely like the form required to catch the Angels with 17 games to go.

In the National League, the Braves are obviously in and cruising. The Cardinals aren’t totally out of the woods, but a six and a half game lead is pretty solid at this point. That’s the same amount the D’backs lead the NL West from the now tied Dodgers and Giants. And those last two are really scrapping it out for the one playoff spot that’s within a five game margin of being decided. Sad to say, after a four game series between the two teams next week, the Giants hit the up Milwaukee, San Diego and then Houston to close out the season. The Dodgers meanwhile get San Diego, Colorado, then some more San Diego. Looks like a tough week and a half for San Diego fans.

No fascinating last day head to head matchups with a playoff spot on the line this year.

So with only mild entertainment in the playoff races, we can turn to a quick review of the individual awards, and there lies a more fascinating tale.

In the American League, the MVP race is just a bit odd. Alex Rodriguez is leading all comers by a wide margin. But there’s that pesky "plays on a last place team" stigma. But then on the other hand, the Rangers are the second best last place team in the majors, and unlike the Mets (the "best" last place team), they play in a division made up of pretty much all good teams. Even if your average BBWAA voter doesn’t want to vote for Arod, the picture is far from clear.

Here’s my patented ranking table using triple crown stats with runs scored added. The league leader in each category gets 100 points, with the other players getting proportional points relative to the leader, so the maximum score would be 400 for a player leading all four categories.

With 389 points, Arod is romping the whole deal, losing only a few points for batting average and runs scored. The next three are almost too close to call (I’ve left out the non-playoff bound players like Magglio Ordonez because there’s no way they beat out Arod.) Jason Giambi is the best candidate by a small margin, but the fact that Soriano and Tejada play much more demanding positions helps even the score. Soriano and Giambi could easily split the New York vote, allowing either Arod or Tejada to sneak in. Personally, I think A-Rod will win and deserve to do so.

The National League picture is maybe even odder. Perennial MVP candidate Barry Bonds isn’t having the same kind of year with raw numbers as he had last year. No 70 homers to impress the Sportscenter fans, for instance. And to be honest, it looked like opposing teams had figured out a way to minimize his impact. Well, Dusty Baker, too, when you consider he’s been batting Benito Santiago behind Bonds for quite a while now. Still, Bonds numbers have crept up to league leading levels, as evidenced by the following table:

It’s a lot closer than the American League race, but Bonds closest competitor is Sosa, whose team has been well out of the playoffs for months now. And while the Cardinals, Astros and Dodgers remain on the fringes of contention, nobody is calling for Berkman, Pujols or Green to be crowned MVP. The Braves and Diamondbacks don’t have any serious MVP candidates — or do they? Johnson, Schilling, Glavine and Maddux, particularly the first two, have an excellent shot at winning the award this year. The average BBWAA voter would no doubt like to snub Bonds anyway, and voting for one of the pitchers would do it without voting in some lesser hitting candidate.

And speaking of Schilling and Johnson, it looks like that’s a toss up for NL Cy Young this year with Schilling likely getting the nod because, well, "it’s his turn."

In the American League, it looks like it’s shaping up to be a battle between Pedro Martinez and Barry Zito. Given the fragility of Pedro (again) and the fact that the Red Sox have plunged out of contention while the A’s have been gangbusters, I suspect that Zito will romp this.

about the author

What's weak this week? Dave Paisley's obviously figured out it's the Mariner and Red Sox "will to win". If you happen to find it lying around, please let him know where it is by writing to drdjp@strikethree.com and he'll make sure the two teams get it back.

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