Prospect Report:
Not Belly-Itchers

David Cameron

There is just over a week to go in the minor-league season, so I'm beginning to prepare for the offseason. Inevitably, nothing generates more interest among minor-league fans than player rankings. It doesn't seem to matter whether the topic is best prospect, coolest name, or even snazziest dresser. We just can't seem to get enough lists.

So, beginning in two weeks, the Prospect Ten will revert to its offseason form, and will contain a different Top Ten list each week. Considering the offseason is over thirty weeks long, I'm accepting suggestions for creative rankings you'd like to see. We'll cover the obvious ones, including the popular positional rankings and skill evaluations. If you have an idea for a Prospect Ten, feel free to e-mail me. If I use your suggestion, you'll get fame and fortune. Okay, you won't, but I will mention you by name.

However, games are still going on, and I trekked to the ballpark to catch a couple of them this weekend. A pair of the better RHP prospects in the game made their way to Winston-Salem, so I made my way five minutes down the road to take in the ballgames. One is a familiar name, and the other could be soon.

I got my second look at Adam Wainwright, the top prospect in the Braves' system and perhaps one of the five best pitching prospects in the game. He's had an outstanding season for Myrtle Beach, despite his recent fade as the season wears down. Friday was not his best outing, though, and it appears that he's ready for some time off.

His velocity was actually better than it was the previous time I saw him. He'll pitch comfortably between 89-91, but he popped 93 and 95 when he needed to throw a fastball by the hitter. While his velocity was up, his movement wasn't as good. His fastball didn't have the same run it had earlier in the year, and the hitters were making solid contact against him.

His curveball is still one of the premier breaking balls in the minors. He throws the big 12-6 curve that Aaron Sele and Tom Gordon have flashed in the majors. He was between 72-74 with the curve, though it didn't have the same tight rotation as it had earlier in the year. Its still a nasty out pitch though.

His changeup was basically nonexistent, having no movement whatsoever. It got pounded. That happens, though. He's got a good change, and his three-pitch repertoire is among the best in the game.

Despite the fact that he gave up seven earned runs in 2-2/3 innings, I walked away impressed. He's got command of two big-time pitches and the makings of a third. He really just lacks experience, at this point, and I could see him in Atlanta as early as late next year.

Monday night brought Francisco Cruceta and the rest of the Kinston Indians into town. Cruceta was acquired by the Tribe from Los Angeles in the Paul Shuey "deal," and this has all the makings of one on which Dan Evans will be asking for a mulligan. Shuey hasn't helped the Dodgers' playoff push much, while Ricardo Rodriguez has already made his ML debut in Cleveland and Cruceta is showing the potential to be a topflight prospect.

There are a couple obvious things that jump out about Cruceta. He has a strange delivery on his fastball and changeup which will probably need some adjustment. He extends his right arm completely out from his body before whipping it back across his chest. This action serves to help his velocity, but doesn't look particularly smooth. I'd imagine the Tribe will attempt to bring his 3/4 delivery into a more natural motion.

His velocity also jumps out at you. He hit 94 on the first pitch of the game and stayed there through his 5-2/3 innings of work. He didn't go below 92 on the fastball and popped 95 a couple of times. He doesn't have a lot of movement on his fastball, but he spots it pretty well. Its definitely an above average pitch.

His curveball was reputed to be his out pitch, but I didn't see it as that strong. He throws it from a different arm slot altogether, coming over the top with a smoother arm action than his fastball. However, the different release makes the curve easy to predict, so hitters know it's coming before the ball leaves his hand. The Indians will work with him on getting one consistent delivery, but it isn't easy to change someone's mechanics. His curve has decent break, but it's not a real hard drop and it doesn't move enough to get by as a slow curve. It's a decent setup pitch, but I don't see him getting good hitters to swing and miss at it very often.

I was extremely impressed with his changeup, however. His delivery of the straight change is the same as the fastball and it has big-time drop as it reaches the plate. He doesn't have great command of it just yet, but it has strikeout pitch written all over it. When he can get ahead of the hitters and mix up the fastball and change, he can be devastating.

Cruceta's got some work to do on his mechanics and his command, but the raw stuff is there to make him an all-star-level pitcher. He reminded me a lot of Freddy Garcia in the way he works. He's not a true power pitcher who will overwhelm you with a fastball, but he's got good enough stuff to be successful even without topnotch command. If he can discover both, he could be frightening.

These games also provided me with more in-depth looks at a pair of prospects who get a lot of publicity for what they can do with a bat in their hands. Both Myrtle Beach SS Kelly Johnson and Kinston 3B Corey Smith have legitimate major-league bat speed and can drive fastballs with relative ease. Johnson is the more polished hitter at this point, as Smith is still learning to adjust to breaking balls and be more patient at the plate.

They also share defensive weaknesses, however. I feel both of their major-league futures lie as outfielders. They'll both get talked up as premium prospects at their positions, but the odds of them playing the infield in the big leagues aren't very good. Johnson should hit enough to play no matter where he stands in the field, but I'm not as confident with Smith. He's still got some work to do at the plate, and right now he's a project more than a prospect.

With the end of the minor-league season approaching next week, we'll unveil my 2002 Minor League Prospect of the Year. If you think you have a good idea of who it will be, you might want to reconsider.

about the author

David Cameron happens to think the Starbucks Mocha Ice Cream Bar is the frozen treat of the year. Make your case for perennial favorite the Dilly Bar at dac@strikethree.com.