Waiting For What?

Dave Paisley

Despite the fact that we’ve been here countless times in the past decades, we seem to be doomed to watching the baseball labor talks repeat all the horrible mistakes of those past years. Even the most shiny-faced optimist has to admit that things are not looking particularly bright right now. Allegedly, the players believe that the union has reached some kind of agreement on drug testing. But wait, let’s hear what the owner’s top lawyer-weasel, Rob Manfred, has to say. Well, he wouldn't say if owners agreed to the testing plan, but he did remark that, "We made progress on the drug issue. Right now, I'm not confirming or denying any agreements, proposals or potential agreements."

Wow, color me impressed. That sounds like real concrete progress was made.

So, with a stoppage looming, and the most likely prospect being the loss of all future 2002 play (and quite possibly 2003, but that’s another matter), what is there to talk about?

Well, if the season ended today (and it won’t be much longer, apparently) the state of the pennant races bears a close look. One format I always liked that ESPN used to carry was the division race chart, showing each team’s record relative to the .500 mark. Of the six divisions, two have been runaways (or rather mass capitulations) so I’m not going to bother looking at the NL East and the AL Central.

So, without further ado, here’s the NL Central (getting the lamest out of the way first (state of play as of the end of play on August 26.) Note that the Brewers and Cubs have been omitted so this chart can get a PG rating.

One of the early features of the NL Central was the success of the Pirates. See, lousy, small market, poorly managed teams can compete! Well, no. The Pirates were doomed to slump back to their God-given level of suckitude, and so they did. Without that early season romp, though, they’d be fighting the Brewers and Devil Rays for the title of worst team in the majors. What of the other teams? The Cardinals have suffered tragedy after tragedy, blow after blow, and yet they continue to lead the division. And they got Scott Rolen. Admittedly, they’re only 12 games over the .500 mark, but in this zone of crapitude, it’s apparently enough.

The Reds looked promising for a while there, but by "promising" I mean "better than the Pirates", so it’s not saying much. Then there’s the curious case of the Astros. What is up with those boys and first half slumps? It took a miracle comeback last year to contend, and thanks to the aforementioned shabby performance by all and sundry in this division, it isn’t taking much of a miracle to get back in the race this year. Run this out to the end of the scheduled season and I think the Astros take this division, maybe with as few as 85 wins.

The AL East is less of a challenge to unscramble:

Story: Boston gets off to flying start. Yankees hang tough. Boston becomes a .500 team after May. Yankees hang tough. Same old story. I threw in the Orioles just to show the best that the Yanks and Sox have to contend with in their division. Tampa Bay omitted so as not to disturb those of you that suffer from acid reflux.

Over in the NL West...

Despite Barry Bonds, the Giants have struggled mightily to get much over the 10 game over hump. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks have ridden Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson like a couple of Triple Crown candidates all the way to the best record in baseball. It’s quite conceivable the two of them could win 50 games between them this year — pretty much unheard of (but please feel free to let me know when the last time was that two teammates won 50 games in a season.) The Dodgers, meanwhile were looking good for a while, but hit that nasty post All-Star game slump. From here it sure looks like the wild card is a scrap between LA and San Francisco. Like anyone outside of California cares.

Finally, there’s the titanic three-way struggle over in the AL West that now looks like this:

The three teams couldn’t have taken much more different paths to start the season. Seattle romped, the Angels tanked and the A’s just hung around. Then the Angels quickly turned things around, while the A’s tanked. Anaheim just about caught Seattle, and while they were doing that, Billy Beane was busy having a Giambi surplus sale (at game 42), and wouldn’t you know it, that’s when the A’s turned it on. Remarkable or what? From the 45 game mark, the A’s are roughly 35 games over .500, or approximately 60-25 with only a couple of minor lulls. Their current 145 game winning streak has been against some bad teams, but it still takes effort to beat the Clevelands and Kansas Cities of the world.

From here, it’s tough to bet against the A’s to win the division (especially if the season ends on Friday) and they’re really much more than a flash in the pan. Anaheim and Seattle are starting to look a bit weary, the Mariners more so than the Angels, I think. Odds are the Mariners fade, leaving the Angels to hold off the Red Sox for the wild card.

If it matters, of course.

If we have playoffs, it starts to look like Yankees against the Angels, and the A’s against the Twins. Expect to see the A’s and Yankees in the AL Championship series, with the A’s finally living up to the hype.

In the NL, it’s the Diamondbacks against the Astros. Annihilation City, Arizona. Then there’s the Braves against the Dodgers. Goodbye Los Angeles. The D’backs-Braves NL Championship will be fun, and I expect that Schilling and Johnson will be the decisive factor much more so than Maddux and Glavine.

So it’s the A’s against the D’backs in the Series. Tough call, but I think the aging veterans can pull one more out of the bag before they all turn into pumpkins.

about the author

Why not send your fictitious playoff brackets to Dave Paisley and tell him why you think your scenarios are better than his? That address is drdjp@strikethree.com. Warning: Entries including the Pirates will be shredded.