Steeeerrrrike... Averted?

Jason Michael Barker

Have we learned nothing from 1994? For all the talk of how another strike would kill baseball, for all the people who say they'll never watch another game, deep down you know the game will come back. Just like it did in 1995, and just like it did after each of the eight work stoppages since 1972.

Monday night, ESPN.com ran a poll featuring the following question: "If the players strike, what will be your reaction when the return to the playing field?" The choices were "Come back immediately," "Come back eventually," "Depends on strike length," and "Boycott MLB forever."

Whenever I vote in an online poll like this, I always come up with two answers: my answer and what I think will be the leader once I click "submit" and the totals are revealed. In this case my answer was easy -- "Come back immediately." I'm an addict, a "sheep," as one columnist put it recently, and not afraid to admit it. Whenever baseball resumes, I'll be there. No need to stage my own pointless personal strike.

Sadly, I had a feeling what the leader would be, too -- "Boycott MLB forever." Sure enough, as of 9:45pm Pacific Time, 46% of the nearly 58,000 voters have chosen that option, followed by "Eventually" (25%), "Depends" (19%) and my choice, "Immediately" (10.0%).

Now, voting in a silly online poll and actually doing something are entirely different animals, but it never ceases to amaze me that people get so worked up about these things. I'm sure the majority of those who said they'd boycott MLB forever really mean that they'll never watch another game. At least, they think they mean it. Of course, they probably meant it back in 1994 too, and we all know how that worked out. (Hint: the fans came back.)

Maybe those who said they'd boycott in the event of a strike still have the memory of 1994 in their heads, in which case I partially understand where they're coming from. In 1994 the labor climate was much worse, resulting in the longest work stoppage in professional sports in this country, and the two sides went months without ever meeting face to face. The winter came and went without a World Series, and next thing you knew they were playing an abbreviated 1995 season.

The good news is that this isn't 1994 all over again. The two sides are much closer to an agreement, and the player's association didn't set a strike date Monday, even though most observers believed they would. That in itself is a positive step, but even more encouraging were some of the comments to come out of Monday's meeting:

"There has been progress on a number of issues over the last several days. It would be very nice if that progress continued and we reached a deal in short order. That's the goal." -- Donald Fehr, head of the player's union

"We feel like there's a window of opportunity to get something done in the next several days and we're willing to explore that." -- Tom Glavine, member of the union's executive board

"[The meeting] kind of got things back on track a little bit. It is possible to get an agreement in the very near future." -- Rob Manfred, lawyer for the owners

I don't know about you, but I haven't been so encouraged about baseball's labor situation since... since about 1993, when I was naïve to the whole thing and didn't know any better.

To be certain there are still a few issues to be worked out, the biggest being the luxury tax, otherwise known as a penalty on teams who spend more than a certain amount on player salaries. Fehr, not generally an entertaining guy, made me chuckle the other day when he said, "We don't view the players as luxuries." The union, of course, is diametrically opposed to anything which would serve to hold salaries down.

The two sides have more or less agreed on what to do with the June amateur draft, testing for steroids, the minimum salary and revenue sharing (at last count, they were less than $60M apart on the amount of revenue to be shared). The steroid issue is not a huge one for either side, as both have a great deal to lose, but it is a big cosmetic issue in terms of keeping fans happy and believing in the integrity of the game.

I don't pretend to know everything about the labor situation and economic issues in baseball, so in that spirit I'd like to offer up some resources for those of you interested in learning more. This really is interesting stuff -- for me at least -- though perhaps not as exciting as seeing the likes of Pedro Martinez and Barry Bonds do their thing on the field.

On the web, your best starting point is Baseball Prospectus' "Baseball Labor and Economics" page, featuring links to all of their related content. At the very top you'll see an eight-part series titled "The Numbers," written by Doug Pappas, chairman of SABR's Business of Baseball Committee and probably the most knowledgeable guy around when it comes to this subject. If you only have a limited amount of time on your hands, start with this series of articles.

Next, ESPN.com has put together a nice item-by-item list of the current issues in the labor dispute, complete with each side's view on the topic. I've only started checking it recently, but it appears as if they're updating it when things change (such as the union agreeing to drug testing last week).

If you're interested in doing some real, off-line reading from actual books (remember that?), look no further than Andrew Zimbalist's Baseball and Billions and John Helyar's Lords of the Realm, both available from Amazon.com. Neither is entirely up to date, but the issues remain topical today. In case you're worried that books about baseball economics are boring, trust me, these two are certainly not.

Again, the good news is that as of Monday's meeting, it appears that an agreement might be reached fairly soon and a strike averted. Perhaps the two sides really did learn something from 1994, even if fans voting in internet polls didn't.

about the author

Jason Michael Barker and the rest of the gang have never gone on strike, but they might be forced to if the Strikethree.com offices don't get that espresso machine installed, and quickly. Order a double-tall mocha with extra foam when you write to jmb@strikethree.com.

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