Prospect Report:
Bravos To The Bravos

David Cameron

The Atlanta Braves are widely regarded as one of the best organizations in the game when it comes to developing talent, and rightly so. They have a seemingly never-ending line of pitching prospects who have early success in the majors, with Damian Moss being this year's version. They've got homegrown stars around the diamond, with Chipper and Andruw Jones playing side by side in the outfield, Rafael Furcal at shortstop, and Javy Lopez behind the plate.

The Braves currently sport the best record in baseball, but face prospective free agency for Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, the anchors of their pitching staff. Its unlikely that AOL Time Warner will cough up the money to keep both pitchers in town, so the Braves will likely be delving into their farm system next year.

That shouldn't be a problem. Atlanta currently sports one of the healthiest systems in the game. The best of the bunch is 6'6" RHP Adam Wainwright, whom I profiled earlier this year after watching him start for Myrtle Beach. They also feature a host of other arms, including Matt Belisle, Brett Evert, Kenny Nelson, Macay McBride, Zach Miner, and Gonzalo Lopez.

The Braves shouldn't have too many problems finding an effective starter or three out of their current crop of arms. Offensively, however, the system isn't as deep.

Highly touted shortstop Wilson Betemit has had a disaster of a season. His overly aggressive style at the plate was exploited by AAA pitchers and he floated around the Mendoza line before missing over a month of the season with an injury. Since returning, he's picked it quite a bit, raising his average to .235 and showing some decent power. His struggles shouldn't have been a major surprise, considering his age and the lack of plate discipline he showed during his rise through the minors last year. His tale should be taken into account when the hype machine for Mets prospect Jose Reyes starts to roll.

Kelly Johnson also got a lot of notice after his huge season with Macon last year. A first round pick in 2000, Johnson was one of the best hitters in the South Atlantic League at just 18 years of age and the Braves had high hopes for his stick. While most people will call his 2002 campaign a disappointment, I'm of the opinion that Johnson's stock has actually gone up.

A quick look at Johnson's numbers reveal a mediocre .267/.339/.424 line in 389 at-bats. While that's a decent line for a 19-year-old in high-A, those numbers don't begin to tell the story. As I mentioned in my analysis of the Myrtle Beach pitching staff, the Pelicans play in one of the best pitcher's parks in all of professional baseball. Johnson has had his numbers deflated by his home park, but has been quite the productive hitter in more neutral ballparks.

His numbers are also deflated by the horrible first month of the season Johnson suffered through. He began the year 13 for his first 71, a .183 batting average. He managed only four extra-base hits in that span, and was struggling to make the adjustment to Carolina League pitchers.

Since that first month, he's hitting .286/.353/.466, a tremendous accomplishment for a player his age playing in Myrtle Beach. He's been absolutely on fire the past month, hitting over .320 in July. Johnson's natural left-handed swing has pretty clearly made the adjustment and he's having few problems with his competition.

Johnson isn't likely to stick at shortstop, and I'm a bit surprised the Braves have left him there this long. His future position is either third base or left field, though I'd imagine the Braves will give him every opportunity to stick in the infield. No matter where he plays, though, Johnson's bat shouldn't have too many problems. He's one of the best teenage hitters around, and the Braves should be quite happy with his development.

Another player the Braves are thrilled with is their 2002 first-round pick Jeff Francoeur. I made the trek to Danville on Monday night to get a look at the Georgia kid who was considered one of the best athletes in the draft. He slipped to number 23 due to a commitment to Clemson to play both football/baseball, but the Braves shelled out the money to get him roaming center field this summer.

He's been every bit as advertised so far in the rookie-level Appalachian league, hitting .319/.385/.536 in 69 at-bats. He's shown tremendous power, as half of his 22 hits were for extra bases. He didn't do anything outstanding in the four at-bats I saw, but he showed a good approach at the plate. Martinsville right-handerFernando Nieve (more on him later) was absolutely dealing, so the fact that Francoeur was able to hold his own against him was impressive.

He showed a good approach at the plate, laying off pitches out of the strike zone and waiting for a fastball to hit. He beat out an infield single to short, though he didn't run as fast as advertised. Francoeur's got a nice swing, though he looks prone to being busted inside. That's something he should be able to adjust as he moves up. He's certainly a good athlete, and the Braves should be thrilled with the early returns.

The aforementioned Nieve is the classic Houston Astros pitching prospect. He's about 5'10" and right-handed, making most teams dismiss his chances as a big-league pitcher. The Astros are leading the way in developing short pitchers, though, and have had great success with Roy Oswalt, Kirk Saarloos, Tim Redding and Billy Wagner to date.

Nieve has an absolute rocket on his right shoulder. He threw the two hardest fastballs I've seen this year, hitting 97 in the third inning and 98 in the fourth. He sat comfortably between 92-94, which is where he was the last time I saw him pitch. His breaking ball showed improved movement and has a chance to be a quality strikeout pitch. He also showed a decent 80 MPH straight change that can be lethal on hitters sitting on his fastball.

Nieve, like a lot of 20-year-olds in rookie ball, needs to learn how to pitch. He's only posted 28 strikeouts in 43 innings, but it's not for a lack of stuff. He'll consistently get ahead of a batter at 0-2 and feed them a fastball in the strike zone. This has worked so far, but he's putting too many balls in play to succeed at higher levels. If he can learn to set up hitters and get them to chase pitches out of the strike zone, he could emerge as a top prospect in a hurry. For now, he's a raw flamethrower, but he's one to keep an eye on.

about the author

David Cameron has a raw flamethrower, and will be bringing it to your town. Bill him for the singed cat at dac@strikethree.com.