Big CYs

Dave Paisley

Just as it’s the time of year to check out MVP candidates, so it is with the Cy Young awards. And just as the MVP award has it’s own unwritten rules for contention, so does the Cy Young. The pitching triple crown stats typically dominate the award even more so than the hitting stats do for the MVP, and the single most dominant criterion is win total. It’s unfortunate, because win total is one of the major stats used for pitchers that is far removed from the influence of the pitcher. Poor run support can ruin an otherwise great year, and great run support can turn an average pitcher into a Cy Young candidate.

Still, let’s take a look at the numbers. Taking the three pitching triple crown stats (Wins, ERA and Strikeouts) and awarding 100 points to the leader in each, with all other pitchers getting pro-rated points, the numbers end up looking something like this for the American League:

PITCHER	TEAM	W	L	ERA	SO	W pts	ERA Pts	K Pts	Total Pts
Pedro Martinez	BOS	15	2	2.25	188	100	95	100	295
Derek Lowe	BOS	15	5	2.13	92	100	100	49	249
Barry Zito	OAK	15	4	2.96	127	100	72	68	240
Roy Halladay	TOR	13	4	2.74	122	87	78	65	229
Jarrod Washburn	ANA	13	3	3.13	103	87	68	55	210
Jamie Moyer	SEA	11	4	2.78	100	73	77	53	203
Mark Buehrle	CHA	14	8	3.77	100	93	56	53	203
Freddy Garcia	SEA	12	7	3.96	129	80	54	69	202
Paul Byrd	KAN	14	7	3.42	86	93	62	46	201
Rodrigo Lopez	BAL	12	3	2.94	89	80	72	47	200
Eric Milton	MIN	13	7	4.59	107	87	46	57	190
Mike Mussina	NYY	13	5	4.82	108	87	44	57	188
Mark Mulder	OAK	12	6	3.66	94	80	58	50	188
Joel Pineiro	SEA	11	4	3.22	89	73	66	47	187
David Wells	NYY	12	5	3.92	97	80	54	52	186
Ramon Ortiz	ANA	9	8	4.00	116	60	53	62	175
Roger Clemens	NYY	8	3	4.01	126	53	53	67	173
Tim Hudson	OAK	8	9	3.58	106	53	59	56	169
Kenny Rogers	TEX	11	6	3.63	66	73	59	35	167
John Burkett	BOS	10	4	4.35	82	67	49	44	159

It’s no shock that Pedro Martinez leads the league by a hefty margin. If it wasn’t for Derek Lowe’s slightly superior ERA, Pedro would have the maximum 300 points. One bad outing by Lowe, and Pedro will be there anyway. Score one for Boston management deciding to baby him along this year, not risking season ending injury. The only mildly remarkable other feature of Pedro’s line is the measly two losses. But this is Pedro Martinez we’re talking about.

After Pedro, there’s Derek Lowe, who, without Pedro, would be an excellent Cy Young recipient, and Oakland’s Barry Zito, who has certainly fulfilled all expectations this year. Behind them, off the pace a little due to a lower win total, is Roy Halladay, who has picked up where he left off at the end of 2001 in fulfilling his potential.

After the top four, the points drop off a bit to a group all around 200 points, headed by Jarrod Washburn. Washburn, Moyer, Buehrle, Garcia, Byrd and Lopez are all having great years, and all but Byrd and Lopez have decent name recognition, but none of them will clamber past the guys ahead of them on the list, and least of all Pedro Martinez. But there’s no shame in having a great year and getting outpitched by one of the best there has ever been.

It’s actually really interesting to see how few pitchers there are who are having outstanding years. By the time you get to the bottom of this top 20, you see the likes of John Burkett, Tim Hudson and Ramon Ortiz. They’re all pretty decent, but all with at least one aspect of the year that has gone awry in terms of Cy Young contention.

Over in the National League, the competition is fierce, but there’s not much of it.

PITCHER	TEAM	W	L	ERA	SO	W pts	ERA Pts	K Pts	Total Pts
Curt Schilling	ARI	18	4	2.83	219	100	86	100	286
Randy Johnson	ARI	15	4	2.76	215	83	88	98	270
Bartolo Colon	MON	14	5	2.67	106	78	91	48	218
A.J. Burnett	FLA	11	7	3.39	163	61	72	74	208
Roy Oswalt	HOU	12	6	3.31	146	67	74	67	207
Tom Glavine	ATL	14	6	2.79	91	78	87	42	207
Matt Morris	STL	12	7	3.43	139	67	71	63	201
Greg Maddux	ATL	11	3	2.44	80	61	100	37	198
Hideo Nomo	LOS	11	6	3.31	114	61	74	52	187
Vicente Padilla	PHI	11	6	3.19	100	61	76	46	183
Pedro Astacio	NYM	10	4	3.07	105	56	79	48	183
Kazuhisa Ishii	LOS	12	7	4.06	123	67	60	56	183
Brian Lawrence	SD	10	6	3.21	112	56	76	51	183
Kevin Millwood	ATL	10	6	3.44	123	56	71	56	183
Odalis Perez	LOS	10	7	3.15	106	56	77	48	181
Matt Clement	CHN	8	8	3.69	146	44	66	67	177
Al Leiter	NYM	9	8	3.51	120	50	70	55	174
Kerry Wood	CHN	9	5	3.82	128	50	64	58	172
Kip Wells	PIT	10	9	3.44	95	56	71	43	170
Javier Vazquez	MON	8	7	3.79	117	44	64	53	162

Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling have the award locked up between them somehow. These two are the reason the Diamondbacks are contender, period. Right now, Schilling would get the nod because of his higher win total, but really that’s just down to run support — how much and when. Last year Schilling had an edge on wins over Johnson and Johnson managed to squeak over the 20 win total and take the award for an obviously better pitching year. This time, it’s so close that Schilling will get the award unless something goes horribly wrong. It’s interesting to note that the 1-2 placings in both leagues are quite likely to come from the same teams. I wonder how often that has ever happened.

After the terrible twosome there’s not much. Colon has pitched well for Cleveland and Montreal, but splitting time between the leagues means he won’t get votes for either, while A. J. Burnett toils in such obscurity that I’ll be shocked if he even shows up on ballots. Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux have been pretty good, but they need either wins or strikeouts to get into the consciousness of the Cy Young voters.

Oswalt and Morris are on teams scrapping it out for the NL Central title, and their numbers are eerily similar. But all they can really hope for is an honorable mention in the CY voting. The bottom end of the top 20 in the National league is an even sorrier bunch than in the AL. Kip Wells should get an honorable mention just for managing to carry a winning record on a pretty dismal Pirates team. I guess the same could be said of Kerry Wood and Matt Clement who are wasting perfectly good years for the Cubs. I’m sure they wouldn’t recognize run support if it hired a limo and tool them out dancing.

So there you have it — Martinez and Schilling. You heard it here first (well, probably not, and like, duh, but you know we have to run the numbers...)

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Any thoughts on Cy Young voting? Are Pedro and Curt da guys? If not, why not? Dave Paisley wants to know, so fire away to drdjp@strikethree.com.