Prospect Report:
Ray of Dope?

David Cameron

Last time around, we discussed the tremendous rebuilding job Mark Shapiro has done in Cleveland. He has since added to the prospect bounty, swapping replaceable reliever Paul Shuey for solid RHPs Ricardo Rodriguez and Fernando Cruceta. Rodriguez gets more notice because he's pitched at higher levels, but I'm not sure Cruceta isn't the better prospect. I'll get a look at him when I see Kinston play at the end of August, and I'll make sure I file a report.

Harking back to another column, I saw Sean Burnett pitch for Lynchburg on Monday night. I was looking forward to watching him live after our discussion on pitching. He actually impressed me more than I thought he would. The reports I'd gotten was that he had average stuff and exceptional command, so I was expecting to see a lot of 80's on the radar gun.

Burnett is actually one of the harder-throwing left-handers I've seen this year, especially encouraging since he's just 19 years of age. He got his fastball as high as 92, and was comfortably at 90-91 most of the game. He's not a big kid, so he probably won't add much to his fastball as he gets older, but he could stand to gain more velocity by keeping his weight back a little longer. He tends to lean forward early in his delivery, and this might take away some of the push he can get from his legs. He's got an outside shot of hitting 93-94 later on in his career, so he's certainly not Jamie Moyer.

His changeup is as good as advertised. Unlike his fastball, Moyer is a good comparison on the pitch. It has a fade to it, tailing away from right-handed batters. He generally keeps it on the outside corner and it can be a very tough pitch. He'll generally sit between 80-82 with the change. That pitch should allow him to be more effective against right-handed batters than most southpaws.

It wouldn't surprise me if he was even better against righties than lefties. We talked about his improving curveball in the interview, but I'm of the opinion that it still has a little way to go before he can throw it to good hitters. Its not a real hard breaker, coming in at around 75 MPH. It has some sideways slant to it, making it almost like a slow slider. It doesn't have enough break the leave the strike zone right now, so it starts and ends as a hittable pitch. If he can tighten it up and cause it to break out of the strike zone, he could add the strikeouts he's going to need to succeed at higher levels.

Burnett draws both sides of the crowd. Scouts love his pitchability and his minuscule ERA, while the more statistically inclined are scared off by his low strikeout rate. I think the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in the middle. He's not a pitcher who lacks the ability to strike batters out, as he has the stuff to draw more swings and misses than he's currently getting. He will need to adjust his philosophy of throwing all strikes, all the time as he moves up, though. Its tough to convince a kid with an ERA that begins with 1 that he needs to change things, however.

I expect Burnett to have some rough patches ahead as he adjusts to AA and AAA hitters. If he can learn the lessons without losing any confidence (which he's obviously not lacking), he'll be a good major league pitcher.

The other legitimate prospect in Lynchburg is shortstop Jose Castillo. He's had a breakout season in 2002, showing tremendous power for a middle infielder and an advanced knowledge of the strike zone. He's had a reputation as a defensive specialist in the past, but that has changed with his offensive explosion.

He reminded me a lot of Tony Batista. They are about the same size and have similar builds. Castillo has a pretty developed upper body for a shortstop, and his strength is really in his arms. He's only an average runner, and he looks like he could actually grow out of the shortstop position. Defensively, he has an average arm and decent range. His best tool in the field is his soft hands. He won't win any gold gloves, but he could handle the position for a team that isn't obsessed with defense.

To be a valuable major leaguer, Castillo's going to have to hit, and I'm not totally sure he will. His swing isn't real smooth, and he doesn't have one standout tool. At best, he's a Carlos Guillen type. At worst, he's Alex Arias.

The Southern League got one heck of an infusion of talent over the past several weeks. The Milwaukee Brewers promoted three of their top prospects -- shortstop J.J. Hardy, third baseman Corey Hart, and outfielder Dave Krynzel -- to Huntsville from high-A ball. All three are quite young, and this continues the trend the Brewers have established of pushing their players through the minor leagues quickly. This has failed to work out in previous years, with Bill Hall stalling in AAA this season. We'll see if the new wave of Bud's Boys can overcome the challenge.

Also joining the Southern League is Rocco Baldelli, a 20-year-old outfielder in the Tampa system. He is absolutely on fire since the promotion, hitting .459 in 37 at bats. Chuck Lamar, Tampa GM, even commented that Baldelli is likely to follow Carl Crawford to the majors this year, if there isn't a work stoppage.

Crawford and Baldelli are tremendous natural talents, but these are shortsighted moves. The Devil Rays are going nowhere this season, likely will go nowhere next season, and their best chance for contention will start in 2004. As such, they need to focus on making sure there are players are ready for that time. The list of kids who have been rushed to the majors prematurely is a long one, and the list of those players who rebounded to live up to their potential is substantially shorter.

Tampa should take their cues from the Pirates' handling of players like Jose Guillen, Chad Hermansen, and Aramis Ramirez. Crawford and Baldelli have yet to demonstrate any knowledge of the strike zone and will fail to help the Devil Rays contend until they do. The best place to learn the strike zone is in the safe haven of the minor leagues. The Rays are also wasting valuable service time, causing their young future stars to reach arbitration and free agency earlier.

The supposed benefits of giving the fans an exciting young team to watch are greatly outweighed by the negative repercussions. Fans want to see their teams win, and Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli cannot help the Devil Rays win any meaningful games in the next year and a half. As such, they should spend that time honing their undeveloped skills without collecting major-league paychecks.

about the author

David Cameron managed to rebound from his promotion to Strikethree.com, although next time we'll be sure to season our young writers with a few years on "The Sports Reporters." Debate Mike Lupica's chances of ever being called up at dac@strikethree.com.