Most Valuable Prognosticator

Dave Paisley

It seems like every week I have to preface my remarks with "presuming there’s no strike", and this week is no exception. This time there’s a little twist, as even if there’s a strike, there will still be MVP awards. Just ask Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas, who both scored personally in 1994, even thought baseball collectively did not.

Each year around this time, I take a look at the individual post-season awards. The view isn’t necessarily the one I hold myself of who should get the awards, but rather who is most likely to win them based on the conventional baseball wisdom that tends to dominate the voting. And by conventional wisdom I mean triple crown statistics — batting average, home runs and runs batted in. Despite the fact that these venerable stats are held pretty much in contempt by modern day analysts, the fact that they dominate the baseball landscape to this day isn’t really in question. Besides, most of the team they do just almost as good a job as much more sophisticated methods.

My usual method for doing the evaluation is to award 100 points to the leader in each of the three categories, and then award points to the rest of the contenders on a pro-rated basis from that. Thus, if Alex Rodriguez leads the league in home runs with 40, then he gets 100 points. If Jim Thome has 36 then he gets 90 points, and so on. Adding up the points in all three categories should give a fair idea of who the contenders are.

Here are the results in the American league:

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AVG	HR	RBI	AVG Pts	HR Pts	RBI Pts	Total Pts
Alex Rodriguez	TEX	SS	.308	34	88	87	100	100	287
Jason Giambi	NYY	1B	.317	26	84	89	76	95	261
Jim Thome	CLE	1B	.284	31	73	80	91	83	254
Magglio Ordonez	CHA	OF	.323	22	82	91	65	93	249
Miguel Tejada	OAK	SS	.303	23	84	85	68	95	248
Paul Konerko	CHA	1B	.313	22	79	88	65	90	243
Torii Hunter	MIN	OF	.315	24	72	89	71	82	241
Alfonso Soriano	NYY	2B	.310	25	65	87	74	74	235
Robin Ventura	NYY	3B	.261	22	80	74	65	91	229
Rafael Palmeiro	TEX	1B	.265	27	66	75	79	75	229
Nomar Garciaparra	BOS	SS	.303	16	85	85	47	97	229
Garret Anderson	ANA	OF	.303	18	79	85	53	90	228
Carlos Delgado	TOR	1B	.250	21	75	70	62	85	217
Ellis Burks	CLE	OF	.276	23	62	78	68	70	216
Jorge Posada	NYY	C	.269	18	73	76	53	83	212
Eric Chavez	OAK	3B	.275	20	65	77	59	74	210
John Olerud	SEA	1B	.298	17	64	84	50	73	207
Tim Salmon	ANA	OF	.288	16	67	81	47	76	204
Tony Batista	BAL	3B	.263	21	60	74	62	68	204
Jacque Jones	MIN	OF	.288	17	64	81	50	73	204
Mike Sweeney	KAN	1B	.355	16	49	100	47	56	203
---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Ichiro Suzuki	SEA	OF	.352	6	35	99	18	40	157
Melvin Mora	BAL	OF	.250	12	44	70	35	50	156

And the result is clear. Alex Rodriguez is the AL MVP!

But wait, not so fast there, me bucko. Why, you ask, when the result is so clear? Well, because there are unwritten rules about the MVP, too. And one is, you better be on a team that makes the playoffs. Or at least a team in contention after the All-Star break, neither of which is going to happen for Alex. After him there’s Jason Giambi. Despite the fact he meets all of the criteria, I’m not feeling like there’s a lot of love for Giambi among the voters (i.e. press). A lot of New York media have been touting Alfonso Soriano anyway, due to his breakthrough impact. Splitting the NY vote could hurt Giambi big time.

However, as we scan down the list, there are fatal flaws with almost all the candidates. Thome? Not contending and halfway traded anyway. Ordonez? Similar. Tejada? Despite the gaudy conventional stats, he’s widely regarded as inferior to Arod, Jeter and Nomar, and that’s a tough barrier to overcome. Konerko? Not contending. Hunter? Does anyone seriously think the MVP will go to an obscure player on an almost contracted team?

Soriano? He could pull an Ichiro and bag the award for stats, charisma and the fact that he plays second base. Ventura suffers from being behind at least two players on his own team. Scan down the list further and nobody jumps out as a great alternative for MVP.

I added Ichiro, last year’s MVP, because he’s doing again what he did last year, but it really doesn't show up on this list (not even if you add in runs scored.) In fact, based on triple crown numbers, he and Melvin Mora are a wash, down in roughly 50th place. I don't hear much of a lobby for Mora for MVP, though. Generally, I'd say it was impossible for a player to win the MVP without hitting at least 20 homers, but Ichiro did it last year. I just don't see the voters going that way again, though. The novelty has worjn off and the Mariners aren't going to win 116 games again.

Despite playing on one of the worst teams in the AL, I'd still give the award to Arod. The final advantage is that he plays shortstop, as opposed to the slug-footed Giambi, who plays a barely adequate statue at first when he isn’t DHing.

The picture is almost as confused in the National League.

PLAYER	TEAM	POS	AVG	HR	RBI	AVG Pts	HR Pts	RBI Pts	Total Pts
Lance Berkman	HOU	OF	.293	31	86	81	100	100	281
Barry Bonds	SFO	OF	.342	28	62	95	90	72	257
Sammy Sosa	CHN	OF	.290	31	66	80	100	77	257
Larry Walker	COL	OF	.361	22	74	100	71	86	257
Vladimir Guerrero	MON	OF	.317	26	71	88	84	83	254
Brian Giles	PIT	OF	.297	28	65	82	90	76	248
Shawn Green	LOS	OF	.271	27	71	75	87	83	245
Pat Burrell	PHI	OF	.281	25	74	78	81	86	245
Richie Sexson	MIL	1B	.292	23	76	81	74	88	243
Luis Gonzalez	ARI	OF	.299	21	79	83	68	92	242
Albert Pujols	STL	OF	.287	23	76	80	74	88	242
Todd Helton	COL	1B	.330	19	71	91	61	83	235
Mike Piazza	NYM	C	.290	22	70	80	71	81	233
Fred McGriff	CHN	1B	.270	22	72	75	71	84	229
Andruw Jones	ATL	OF	.254	23	68	70	74	79	224
Jim Edmonds	STL	OF	.325	21	56	90	68	65	223
Jeff Kent	SFO	2B	.331	18	62	92	58	72	222
Adam Dunn	CIN	OF	.294	21	60	81	68	70	219
Cliff Floyd	MON	OF	.275	20	60	76	65	70	210
Gary Sheffield	ATL	OF	.292	18	60	81	58	70	209

Right up at the top is Lance Berkman, leading in two categories and hitting a respectable .293. But he most likely isn’t going to the post-season, although there’s still a chance. Right behind him is Barry Bonds, who could easily win it again, of course. It would help if his teammates could help out a bit with the counting stats, but such has been Bonds’ lot for many years now.

Sosa, Walker and Guerrero round out a nice little top five. With none of them likely to see post-season action without a big screen TV, and Bonds by no means a lock, it’s entirely possible that the highest ranked contenders to be sure of a spot in the post-season are Albert Pujols and Andruw Jones. It must be noted that at least one of Bonds, Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez will make it, to post-season action, as there’s no way Colorado or San Diego are going to come back to win the division.

So what to make of this mess? If the Giants make the playoffs, I guess Bonds should win. Except for the fact that he won it last year on the strength of all those homers, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to run away with anything this year. And he’s no media darling, so many will figure last year was plenty. If not Bonds then maybe Shawn Green. But everything’s just as much up for grabs as playoff spots.

One last thought — coming back to my original strike thought, if there is a strike, who makes the playoffs is less likely to factor into the voting.

about the author

Any thoughts on MVP voting? Who deserves it but will inevitably be overlooked? Who's likel to won who doesn't deserve to? Dave Paisley wants to know, so fire away to drdjp@strikethree.com.