Prospect Report:
Park Property

David Cameron

I got quite a bit of feedback on the Prospect All-Star team I did last week. A reoccurring question was, "why did (insert player with tremendous numbers) get left off?" Some guys, like Brad Hawpe and Brandon Larson, are a little too old relative to their league to take their numbers at face value. Other players got discounted because they have racked up impressive numbers in some very friendly environments which inflate their stats. Those are the guys we're going to look at today.

The name that got the most attention was Corey Hart, a 20-year-old slugger who has switched from first base to third while playing for High Desert in the California League. The Brewers made the move after drafting Prince Fielder, which gave them quite a logjam at first base but no real answers to their third-base problem. Hart's overall numbers are quite impressive, especially his power. However, High Desert is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minors, ranking 12 percent above the California League average in run scoring.

Hart's road numbers bear out the advantage he's had from his home park. His batting average at home is a robust .380, but falls to .246 when he leaves the friendly confines. Hart's power, however, appears legitimate, as he's actually slugging extra-base hits at nearly the same ratio on the road as he is at home. His plate discipline has also been better while in the pitcher's parks, which is actually pretty common. Hitters tend to be more agressive in places where they know they have a better chance to get a hit.

Overall, Hart's numbers show him to be a promising slugger who needs to make more consistent contact and draw a few more walks. If he can finish the season strong and improve his numbers on the road, the Brewers will have good reason to be enthusiastic about sending him to AA for 2003.

High Desert hasn't treated all prospects the same, however. J.J. Hardy, the Brewers second-round pick last summer, is actually hitting 20 points higher on the road than he is at home. That's not to say he hasn't benefited from his home park as two-thirds of his extra-base hits have come there. Considering Hardy is the youngest player in the league, its not uncommon for him to not be showing much power. Like Hart, and almost all Brewers prospects, he needs to start taking more pitches, but he's having a solid season.

One Brewers prospect who certainly doesn't need to take any more pitches is David Krynzel. He has been all over the map in his first few years in the minors. Drafted as a speedy leadoff-type hitter, he'd never shown much plate discipline but hit for a high average and showed a bit of power. This year he's been the complete opposite, showing only marginal power and posting a weak batting average while leading the league in walks. Krynzel's overall .257 average masks his really poor road performance to date. He's hitting just .197 on the road. Almost no amount of walks will make a .197 hitter productive, and very few minor leaguers have succeeded in the majors with Krynzel's current skill set.

This isn't to say he's toast and the Brewers should write him off. He's shown the ability to hit for both average and power in the past and is showing a knowledge of the strike zone this year. He may need to spend next year back in the Cal League to learn how to put them all together, but there are signs that Krynzel has the makings of a good center fielder. He's just going to require a bit of patience from an organization that hasn't shown much.

Another famous hitter's park is located in Edmonton, home of the Twins' AAA affilliate. The Trappers' offense has been tremendous this year, led by the three Mikes (Cuddyer, Restovich, and Ryan). Of the three, however, only Michael Restovich has seen a positive inflation from his home park. His .271 road average pales in comparison to his .356 mark at home. However, like Hart, Restovich has shown just as much power away from his home park, so the inflation comes from a lot of extra singles.

My big concern with Restovich is his plate discipline. The split here is tremendous. He's been rather patient at home, posting 16 walks and 20 strikeouts in 101 at-bats. However, in 188 road at-bats, he's drawn just 9 walks and struck out 58 times. There are very few major-league parks that are as comfortable to hit in as Edmonton, so Restovich is going to have to learn to take his approach on the road before he'll be a successful major-league hitter.

On the other side of the ball, lets take a look at the entire Myrtle Beach Pelicans pitching staff. Coastal Field is one of the best places to pitch in all of professional baseball and the Braves prospects there have made full use of it. Dan Curtis is having a Koufax-like season, posting a 0.61 ERA at home but a more human 3.83 ERA on the road. Likewise, Kenny Nelson (1.11 home, 3.34 road), Chris Waters (1.77 home, 4.26 road), and Roman Colon (1.86 home, 5.18 road) have benefited greatly from their home-field advantage.

Interestingly enough, the best pitching prospect in Myrtle Beach, and probably in the Carolina League, is Adam Wainwright. He's been better on the road (1.74 ERA) than he has at home (3.86 ERA), though his ratios are similar across the board.

Keep in mind when looking at a player's numbers that they can be greatly affected by the place he plays half his ballgames. Baseball Prospectus lists park factors for every professional league in baseball (including the Japanese Leagues!) in the back of their 2002 edition, so it's a handy reference point. They also keep daily league totals at their website, which allows you to compare which leagues are more friendly to hitters and pitchers. The stuff there is definitely worth your time to read.

about the author

David Cameron is working on his own home/road splits, after finding that his out-of-town columns contain 20 percent more vowels. Suggest judicious use of Eastern European last names at dac@strikethree.com.